DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 07/20 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0659z - - 1009z - - 1334z - - 1559z - - 1859z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 78.5 - - 86.1 - - 90.9 - - 93.0 - - 89.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 1 - - 108 - - 171 - - 131 - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1709 - - 5110 - - 4892 - - 1834 BL Depth Hcrit 553 - - 1173 - - 3901 - - 3595 - - 554 Hcrit BL Top 571 - - 2304 - - 5705 - - 5487 - - 2429 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 875 - - 2523 - - 1145 - - 1507 - - 4012 Hgt.Variab. W* 16 - - 244 - - 408 - - 371 - - 111 W* B/S 1 - - 5 - - 7 - - 5 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 9 - - 11 - - 14 - - 15 BL Wind Direction 218 - - 229 - - 198 - - 197 - - 202 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 5 - - 5 - - 7 - - 9 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - 1 - - -4 - - -10 - - -6 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -547 - - -590 - - 1820 - - 472 - - -1571 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 1119 - - 2894 - - 3885 - - 5016 - - 4000 sfcLCL ODpotential -4176 - - -2548 - - 178 - - -4114 - - -6409 ODpotential blCL 4747 - - 4852 - - 5527 - - 9601 - - 8838 blCL maxRH 86 - - 77 - - 81 - - 73 - - 71 maxRH CAPE 1760 - - 2440 - - 3250 - - 2480 - - 2860 CAPE Temp@2m 78.5 - - 86.1 - - 90.9 - - 93.0 - - 89.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 74.9 - - 74.8 - - 75.3 - - 72.6 - - 73.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 78.7 - - 85.4 - - 89.8 - - 92.1 - - 90.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 74.6 - - 73.9 - - 74.1 - - 71.5 - - 73.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 1 - - 108 - - 171 - - 131 - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1709 - - 5110 - - 4892 - - 1834 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 45 - - 9 - - 25 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 19 - - 18 - - 16 - - 15 - - 17 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99069 38 085 36 095 30 100 34 097 30 096 99069 91573 29 090 32 100 31 094 28 093 29 096 91573 85821 28 095 29 088 31 089 27 088 30 102 85821 81072 28 087 28 077 30 099 26 082 26 099 81072 76983 23 081 22 081 27 098 20 089 22 090 76983 73366 18 096 16 094 22 079 17 100 18 082 73366 70108 20 104 16 131 15 053 19 086 13 091 70108 67144 16 080 20 133 4 068 14 070 15 072 67144 64400 12 066 18 107 9 146 3 126 13 035 64400 61734 10 069 17 065 15 121 10 160 2 233 61734 58963 5 073 6 036 15 097 10 125 7 179 58963 56104 5 221 9 252 4 077 7 097 7 158 56104 53397 15 203 14 225 12 246 6 241 7 183 53397 50988 17 196 15 208 23 238 16 241 10 222 50988 48846 14 206 15 203 28 226 26 239 20 244 48846 46903 14 237 11 217 26 217 28 239 24 244 46903 45109 18 257 11 240 20 220 24 240 22 245 45109 43432 19 256 13 268 13 231 20 246 18 254 43432 41852 20 252 17 265 15 243 17 249 19 261 41852 40359 21 253 19 256 18 243 20 252 21 265 40359 38944 19 256 18 260 18 245 22 251 23 267 38944 37571 17 261 14 265 17 251 22 247 25 266 37571 36169 16 268 12 268 16 259 18 243 27 264 36169 34710 15 263 11 271 15 258 16 245 26 265 34710 33194 12 246 12 262 13 255 16 250 25 267 33194 31609 12 243 13 255 11 265 13 251 22 264 31609 29943 8 244 13 260 8 266 9 243 17 254 29943 28202 5 142 13 261 4 252 9 223 14 243 28202 26386 9 122 13 251 3 228 9 232 13 249 26386 24493 8 155 15 239 7 251 11 249 12 251 24493 22522 8 170 12 229 10 248 12 252 9 251 22522 20467 6 154 7 213 5 236 10 257 8 275 20467 18324 3 138 5 195 5 200 8 265 7 311 18324 16139 3 177 8 236 7 231 8 279 9 329 16139 14032 8 188 14 232 12 233 8 266 7 324 14032 12108 11 181 15 218 15 217 10 251 7 313 12108 10397 10 193 15 213 17 220 13 258 8 315 10397 8877 12 219 15 220 17 226 14 258 9 300 8877 7526 12 221 16 222 15 229 12 245 9 263 7526 6330 9 207 16 209 13*225 12*232 10 250 6330 5269 7 229 12 198 11*213 12*223 11 237 5269 4333 9 262 11 209 11 205 14 202 14 219 4333 3505 15 272 11 228 11 199 14 196 17 209 3505 2763 21 273 12*240 11 195 15 194 17*206 2763 2106 24 268 11*237 11 193 15 192 17*204 2106 1558 22 258 10 229 11 191 14 191 16 202 1558 1137 17 245 9 227 10 191 14 191 15 201 1137 847 12 225 8 225 10 190 13 190 14 200 847 671 11*223 8 224 9 189 12 190 12 199 671 571 5*218 7 224 8 189 10 189 8 199 571 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography