DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 11/17 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0722z - - 1010z - - 1333z - - 1601z - - 1900z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 28.6 - - 37.6 - - 46.1 - - 48.4 - - 40.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -5 - - 39 - - 89 - - 14 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 237 - - 893 - - 1309 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 549 - - 550 - - 550 - - 551 - - 550 Hcrit BL Top 567 - - 832 - - 1488 - - 1904 - - 568 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 201 - - 272 - - 371 - - 555 - - 390 Hgt.Variab. W* 3 - - 87 - - 178 - - 117 - - 6 W* B/S 0 - - 2 - - 4 - - 3 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 8 - - 9 - - 8 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 149 - - 148 - - 170 - - 168 - - 200 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 5 - - 3 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - 1 - - -3 - - 1 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -267 - - -405 - - -745 - - -442 - - -278 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 834 - - 1237 - - 2233 - - 2346 - - 846 sfcLCL ODpotential -15752 - - -11451 - - -6625 - - -5965 - - -2519 ODpotential blCL 16319 - - 12283 - - 8113 - - 7869 - - 3087 blCL maxRH 91 - - 90 - - 77 - - 94 - - 79 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 28.6 - - 37.6 - - 46.1 - - 48.4 - - 40.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 27.3 - - 34.5 - - 38.5 - - 40.1 - - 38.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 29.5 - - 37.4 - - 45.8 - - 48.4 - - 43.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 27.5 - - 34.0 - - 37.4 - - 39.1 - - 39.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -5 - - 39 - - 89 - - 14 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 237 - - 893 - - 1309 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 62 - - 58 - - 9 - - 75 - - 18 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 4 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97038 44 240 47 243 39 246 41 233 44 238 97038 89745 32 244 34 238 35 235 40 243 39 250 89745 84079 35 245 31 233 35 235 41 245 39 257 84079 79375 36 246 28 239 34 240 35 249 34 256 79375 75341 32 247 22 255 24 241 30 253 25 254 75341 71785 23 259 20 268 18 249 27 255 20 266 71785 68561 19 277 19 274 15 270 22 253 18 273 68561 65593 24 279 20 277 19 282 18 260 16 279 65593 62833 26 270 22 265 21 274 16 266 17 294 62833 60145 22 260 21 270 23 277 21 278 22 294 60145 57329 26 262 25 267 29 268 25 270 26 289 57329 54397 28 263 24 260 29 261 27 266 28 282 54397 51592 37 268 26 259 30 265 28 267 27 276 51592 49063 46 259 32 259 36 262 32 270 27 279 49063 46793 44 255 35 256 41 253 40 262 30 281 46793 44734 47 255 50 259 40 248 44 255 34 281 44734 42851 51 255 58 252 40 249 43 251 38 278 42851 41117 58 259 54 251 39 247 42 244 41 269 41117 39509 62 257 57 251 44 242 43 234 41 259 39509 38007 60 256 62 244 56 239 40 232 39 254 38007 36601 62 260 58 231 63 232 44 235 37 254 36601 35253 67 263 58 226 60 215 53 232 34 249 35253 33899 63 261 57 230 56 211 65 229 37 237 33899 32507 55 257 57 235 56 210 73 222 45 224 32507 31081 48 250 57 237 56 214 73 222 51 216 31081 29600 43 243 58 238 54 222 73 217 53 212 29600 28045 40 244 61 241 53 229 67 213 51 214 28045 26412 42 253 67 241 55 235 59 212 49 217 26412 24699 47 260 68 237 59 236 59 213 48 218 24699 22907 48 260 63 230 62 231 61 215 47 215 22907 21041 46 255 60 222 64 220 57 216 45 211 21041 19101 42 248 57 220 64 219 47 223 37 216 19101 17081 40 238 51 218 58 223 45 236 25 240 17081 15020 38 231 44 219 51 229 39 248 22 253 15020 13032 30 225 38 223 46 226 39 252 25 266 13032 11223 21 228 31 235 32 216 34 237 27 264 11223 9618 13 278 22 252 18 211 27 233 26 249 9618 8196 16 316 14 273 14 216 23 240 18 231 8196 6939 13 321 9 283 13 225 22 242 19 231 6939 5828 9 310 6 273 9 237 17 238 19 232 5828 4849 9 286 4 263 8 241 11 225 18 239 4849 3990 10 276 4 243 8 232 9 220 17 252 3990 3233 10 260 4 219 10 219 10 209 17 265 3233 2557 11 244 6 202 12 209 11 195 17 269 2557 1960 12 227 8 192 12*196 11*186 15 262 1960 1461 13 206 9 179 11*182 9*171 11 240 1461 1079 13 196 10*169 9 168 9 168 9 226 1079 816 11 175 9*149 9 166 8 167 8 213 816 658 8*161 8 148 8 165 8 166 6*204 658 567 3*149 7 148 7 164 6 164 4*200 567 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography