DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 09/29 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0653z - - 0955z - - 1327z - - 1555z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 40.9 - - 55.2 - - 63.3 - - 65.1 - - 58.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -14 - - 127 - - 224 - - 105 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 625 - - 3504 - - 3500 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 556 - - 556 - - 2769 - - 2374 - - 557 Hcrit BL Top 573 - - 1220 - - 4099 - - 4095 - - 574 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 137 - - 917 - - 659 - - 701 - - 3145 Hgt.Variab. W* 7 - - 175 - - 378 - - 298 - - 9 W* B/S 0 - - 5 - - 11 - - 7 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 7 - - 6 - - 8 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 057 - - 099 - - 079 - - 069 - - 062 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 1 - - 2 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - -1 - - -3 - - -2 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -235 - - -2171 - - -1801 - - -2402 - - -3684 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 808 - - 3391 - - 5900 - - 6497 - - 4259 sfcLCL ODpotential -14475 - - -13324 - - -11739 - - -11952 - - -13787 ODpotential blCL 15048 - - 14544 - - 15838 - - 16047 - - 14361 blCL maxRH 82 - - 69 - - 57 - - 51 - - 51 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 40.9 - - 55.2 - - 63.3 - - 65.1 - - 58.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 39.9 - - 42.9 - - 39.8 - - 39.1 - - 42.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 42.9 - - 54.4 - - 61.9 - - 64.5 - - 61.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 40.2 - - 42.1 - - 38.6 - - 37.8 - - 41.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -14 - - 127 - - 224 - - 105 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 625 - - 3504 - - 3500 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 28 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 6 - - 5 - - 4 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98085 11 063 18 084 10 074 8 099 0 014 98085 90715 14 063 17 069 14 084 12 082 14 069 90715 85038 11 061 14 071 15 093 11 066 17 069 85038 80307 6 124 7 044 11 103 5 076 10 030 80307 76234 5 105 3 097 4 115 4 100 3 319 76234 72639 3 255 3 101 3 180 2 165 7 212 72639 69381 5 213 2 173 3 319 3 087 5 191 69381 66399 3 347 6 154 8 294 4 337 5 000 66399 63659 7 289 2 101 6 255 7 300 6 336 63659 61022 9 323 4 327 4 209 8 301 6 309 61022 58281 12 314 8 317 2 296 9 290 8 286 58281 55442 16 313 11 307 7 313 10 284 10 291 55442 52729 20 301 17 300 16 299 17 291 19 302 52729 50280 24 296 21 295 20 289 22 279 23 292 50280 48076 28 294 23 304 19 295 19 270 24 279 48076 46069 30 297 26 314 17 303 17 267 23 266 46069 44224 29 311 25 315 17 304 16 270 23 260 44224 42519 29 327 24 315 18 298 18 275 21 264 42519 40934 30 337 23 318 19 294 19 281 19 273 40934 39452 29 339 21 322 17 296 19 288 16 289 39452 38058 25 333 19 326 15 304 18 294 17 302 38058 36710 21 326 16 333 17 312 17 302 19 301 36710 35343 18 325 13 341 20 316 16 313 19 313 35343 33928 17 333 13 347 18 316 17 324 22 336 33928 32463 18 339 15 351 16 320 18 328 25 344 32463 30931 19 346 15 349 14 324 18 328 23 339 30931 29318 20 350 13 350 13 326 17 333 19 331 29318 27618 19 359 11 004 10 327 12 332 15 326 27618 25830 17 001 9 002 8 325 9 321 11 320 25830 23959 16 350 11 351 7 332 8 312 10 311 23959 22008 18 344 12 356 7 350 7 321 8 316 22008 19976 17 341 12 354 9 352 7 348 6 338 19976 17858 14 355 11 353 9 352 9 350 7 360 17858 15693 13 013 9 004 7 357 9 340 10 358 15693 13601 12 017 10 359 9 005 8 348 11 001 13601 11695 15 359 15 003 14 028 11 039 11 042 11695 9998 18 023 17 036 15 058 12 060 12 071 9998 8494 13 048 16 071 12 080 8 071 8 065 8494 7173 9 085 9 092 5 094 6 069 8 073 7173 6017 6 094 5 094 3 049 7 063 9 093 6017 5000 7 091 9 088 5*076 8 071 13 095 5000 4111 9 092 11 079 6*077 8*068 14 088 4111 3330 12 103 8 083 6 078 8*068 13 081 3330 2631 12 113 9 110 7 079 8 068 13 079 2631 2014 12 111 10 113 7 079 8 069 13 077 2014 1498 12 104 9*106 6 080 8 069 12 075 1498 1104 14 100 7*100 6 082 7 069 12 072 1104 832 13 076 7 099 6 081 7 070 10 070 832 667 11*069 6 098 6 082 7 069 8*067 667 573 4*057 6 098 5 081 6 070 5*062 573 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography