DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 09/27 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0659z - - 1007z - - 1336z - - 1601z - - 1901z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 63.9 - - 77.3 - - 85.6 - - 88.2 - - 78.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -42 - - 74 - - 158 - - 27 - - -26 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 985 - - 2540 - - 4155 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 557 - - 558 - - 1944 - - 1415 - - 558 Hcrit BL Top 575 - - 1580 - - 3135 - - 4750 - - 576 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 279 - - 645 - - 1397 - - 1579 - - 200 Hgt.Variab. W* 8 - - 176 - - 310 - - 227 - - 9 W* B/S 0 - - 2 - - 3 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 8 - - 17 - - 19 - - 18 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 205 - - 229 - - 226 - - 230 - - 190 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 11 - - 8 - - 10 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 1 - - 2 - - 4 - - 9 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1487 - - -3597 - - -3889 - - -2857 - - -3430 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2063 - - 5177 - - 7024 - - 7608 - - 4006 sfcLCL ODpotential -9344 - - -8695 - - -8038 - - -7090 - - -8079 ODpotential blCL 9919 - - 10275 - - 11173 - - 11840 - - 8655 blCL maxRH 68 - - 71 - - 62 - - 59 - - 46 maxRH CAPE 30 - - 40 - - 240 - - 470 - - 1190 CAPE Temp@2m 63.9 - - 77.3 - - 85.6 - - 88.2 - - 78.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 56.9 - - 56.8 - - 56.9 - - 56.8 - - 62.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 66.1 - - 77.0 - - 84.6 - - 88.1 - - 81.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 56.8 - - 56.3 - - 56.1 - - 55.8 - - 62.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -42 - - 74 - - 158 - - 27 - - -26 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 985 - - 2540 - - 4155 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 10 - - 10 - - 9 - - 9 - - 12 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98272 9 292 13 256 6 273 12 261 9 285 98272 90919 6 295 9 232 7 265 6 242 7 295 90919 85223 1 263 3 230 9 192 6 234 6 306 85223 80475 3 008 5 334 10 144 8 209 8 281 80475 76395 2 313 4 334 6 158 8 178 8 242 76395 72785 4 256 3 272 6 208 3 277 4 254 72785 69504 7 282 5 285 2 146 2 261 3 237 69504 66486 5 255 8 289 5 302 3 309 3 052 66486 63695 3 179 7 220 7 258 6 272 7 002 63695 61004 13 333 5 330 8 332 7 308 8 002 61004 58215 9 332 3 254 7 324 6 302 8 340 58215 55341 18 329 5 350 7 287 9 306 11 324 55341 52610 29 313 19 327 15 290 20 304 20 316 52610 50163 34 301 31 305 24 300 27 303 28 308 50163 47976 37 292 33 302 30 302 33 303 31 305 47976 45992 36 294 36 308 33 299 36 300 33 302 45992 44174 36 303 38 308 36 299 36 299 34 297 44174 42494 37 307 41 303 38 301 38 298 38 296 42494 40932 40 305 42 300 39 300 41 294 45 296 40932 39467 41 301 40 299 42 297 42 294 50 293 39467 38088 40 300 40 298 41 297 44 294 51 292 38088 36756 37 301 38 294 41 301 43 293 51 290 36756 35401 33 301 33 292 41 301 41 293 52 286 35401 33990 27 301 29 296 40 300 40 291 50 284 33990 32525 27 307 28 301 36 297 40 288 46 284 32525 30992 31 311 29 304 31 298 39 286 42 288 30992 29379 34 308 29 304 29 302 37 282 38 292 29379 27687 34 305 28 303 28 302 34 278 35 293 27687 25914 34 304 28 304 25 294 31 274 31 294 25914 24061 31 301 31 304 27 289 29 277 27 294 24061 22132 29 295 33 298 26 292 25 290 24 293 22132 20126 29 293 33 296 27 305 25 298 25 300 20126 18036 27 292 29 288 29 302 26 298 27 298 18036 15900 24 283 28 275 27 279 27 292 27 292 15900 13831 22 270 28 261 28 270 28 268 26 277 13831 11942 16 264 26 249 28 258 30 265 29 273 11942 10259 11 241 26 245 29 250 32 263 30 270 10259 8763 8 243 27 244 29 246 32 259 30 268 8763 7433 11 264 28 244 30 244 32 256 29 263 7433 6252 21 270 29 244 29 245 30 253 27 248 6252 5206 29 265 30 246 29 249 25*244 26 240 5206 4283 35 259 31 250 29 249 21*234 25 240 4283 3466 37 257 34 252 26*243 20 232 23 242 3466 2734 39 255 34 249 20*230 19 230 22 242 2734 2086 39 249 31*245 20 227 18 229 20 240 2086 1546 35 237 22*235 19 226 17 228 17 233 1546 1131 28 226 18 228 18 225 17 227 15 220 1131 846 19 211 17 227 17 225 15 226 13 205 846 674 16*209 15 226 16 224 14 226 11*198 674 575 8*205 12 225 13 223 11 225 6*190 575 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography