DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 11/20 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0656z - - 0958z - - 1330z - - 1601z - - 1900z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 31.6 - - 32.7 - - 36.0 - - 37.2 - - 31.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -4 - - 50 - - 153 - - 57 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1928 - - 2628 - - 2902 - - 2918 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 550 - - 550 - - 2146 - - 1171 - - 550 Hcrit BL Top 2523 - - 3223 - - 3497 - - 3513 - - 567 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 992 - - 748 - - 620 - - 585 - - 1946 Hgt.Variab. W* 56 - - 209 - - 312 - - 227 - - 7 W* B/S 1 - - 3 - - 6 - - 5 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 15 - - 13 - - 9 - - 9 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 336 - - 323 - - 316 - - 271 - - 217 Direction Wind Shear 10 - - 6 - - 3 - - 4 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -1 - - -2 - - -2 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 951 - - 1185 - - 806 - - 550 - - -704 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 1572 - - 2038 - - 2691 - - 2963 - - 1271 sfcLCL ODpotential 512 - - 761 - - 247 - - -10931 - - -1216 ODpotential blCL 2011 - - 2462 - - 3250 - - 14444 - - 1783 blCL maxRH 100 - - 100 - - 91 - - 82 - - 88 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 31.6 - - 32.7 - - 36.0 - - 37.2 - - 31.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 27.1 - - 26.3 - - 26.6 - - 26.6 - - 28.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 31.8 - - 32.5 - - 35.3 - - 36.9 - - 31.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 26.7 - - 25.3 - - 25.3 - - 25.3 - - 27.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -4 - - 50 - - 153 - - 57 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1928 - - 2628 - - 2902 - - 2918 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 101 - - 100 - - 64 - - 29 - - 54 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95850 89 248 87 254 82 251 87 249 86 252 95850 88662 65 251 66 255 66 253 70 250 69 258 88662 83141 62 258 60 258 61 261 59 253 58 258 83141 78550 64 265 56 262 61 265 57 265 52 267 78550 74595 61 267 52 266 58 264 59 273 54 275 74595 71107 57 266 49 270 52 262 55 270 54 276 71107 67946 55 267 49 273 48 266 52 269 53 277 67946 65031 55 268 49 272 47 268 50 271 51 277 65031 62314 55 267 49 273 47 270 49 271 50 277 62314 59669 58 269 51 273 49 274 49 274 50 275 59669 56898 60 268 53 274 52 275 51 275 51 272 56898 54009 57 268 55 275 53 277 52 278 51 270 54009 51245 58 271 57 274 56 280 56 283 52 279 51245 48770 61 271 59 274 60 280 62 282 57 284 48770 46570 63 270 62 273 62 278 64 278 58 284 46570 44585 64 269 63 272 64 277 62 279 57 283 44585 42774 64 271 65 276 63 279 59 282 52 285 42774 41107 64 276 66 278 60 282 55 288 48 292 41107 39566 65 280 65 278 56 288 55 296 45 300 39566 38132 65 285 62 280 57 296 54 300 43 303 38132 36789 67 285 61 285 59 304 52 303 39 307 36789 35494 67 282 61 288 61 307 50 306 37 314 35494 34181 61 283 61 289 59 305 48 307 36 318 34181 32817 55 288 60 289 55 303 46 308 36 313 32817 31402 55 295 59 290 52 303 44 307 36 303 31402 29915 57 299 58 293 50 303 41 306 39 296 29915 28345 59 303 56 296 47 302 40 305 39 294 28345 26692 60 305 56 299 45 302 39 303 39 288 26692 24956 58 305 54 301 43 300 39 297 41 282 24956 23138 55 305 52 301 42 297 40 293 43 281 23138 21242 50 304 50 302 43 294 42 290 43 285 21242 19262 48 305 47 303 43 292 44 290 41 290 19262 17197 46 310 43 307 41 296 42 294 38 290 17197 15091 43 311 38 313 37 301 37 297 35 291 15091 13066 37 310 34 318 32 304 33 298 33 296 13066 11231 34 313 32 321 27 309 30 298 31 300 11231 9601 31 315 30 323 24 315 25 294 28 297 9601 8157 29 311 25 326 20 316 22 290 26 290 8157 6880 27 308 23 327 17 312 20 286 25 289 6880 5755 24 312 21 330 17 312 18 289 22 295 5755 4767 20 315 18 335 13 316 16 293 22 302 4767 3908 18 336 15*335 10*315 11*279 20 296 3908 3159 18*343 14*330 10*315 10*275 17 289 3159 2497 18*341 14 325 10 316 10 273 14 265 2497 1916 16 338 13 323 9 316 9 271 13 244 1916 1433 15 335 13 321 9 316 9 270 12 237 1433 1063 14 333 12 320 8 316 8 269 11 233 1063 809 12 332 11 319 8 316 8 269 9 228 809 654 11 330 10 318 7 316 7 269 8*223 654 566 8 330 8 318 7 316 6 268 4*217 566 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography