DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 08/03 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0656z - - 0959z - - 1332z - - 1600z - - 1900z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 68.4 - - 70.8 - - 75.1 - - 71.1 - - 71.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -1 - - 8 - - 116 - - 83 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1037 - - 2769 - - 1505 - - 476 BL Depth Hcrit 552 - - 552 - - 1991 - - 552 - - 552 Hcrit BL Top 570 - - 1632 - - 3364 - - 2100 - - 1071 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 754 - - 1052 - - 2031 - - 1739 - - 4210 Hgt.Variab. W* 8 - - 102 - - 296 - - 212 - - 62 W* B/S 1 - - 2 - - 7 - - 3 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 8 - - 8 - - 15 - - 8 BL Wind Direction 340 - - 004 - - 332 - - 339 - - 339 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 3 - - 5 - - 4 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - -1 - - 1 - - -7 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -127 - - 31 - - 1407 - - 838 - - -716 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 697 - - 1601 - - 1957 - - 1262 - - 1787 sfcLCL ODpotential -1940 - - -1859 - - 902 - - 220 - - -1502 ODpotential blCL 2510 - - 3491 - - 2462 - - 1880 - - 2573 blCL maxRH 97 - - 95 - - 97 - - 98 - - 95 maxRH CAPE 1070 - - 700 - - 1560 - - 1000 - - 530 CAPE Temp@2m 68.4 - - 70.8 - - 75.1 - - 71.1 - - 71.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 66.8 - - 65.5 - - 68.2 - - 67.1 - - 65.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 68.7 - - 70.9 - - 74.3 - - 70.6 - - 71.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 66.7 - - 64.7 - - 66.8 - - 66.4 - - 64.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -1 - - 8 - - 116 - - 83 - - -13 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1037 - - 2769 - - 1505 - - 476 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 89 - - 81 - - 87 - - 93 - - 82 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 14 - - 13 - - 14 - - 13 - - 13 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99078 38 085 31 083 39 085 41 095 34 096 99078 91627 34 084 37 086 37 091 29 097 30 093 91627 85879 32 084 31 088 27 097 24 086 27 087 85879 81110 26 089 23 092 21 100 22 071 27 085 81110 77006 20 093 19 095 19 098 18 074 23 080 77006 73390 14 095 16 093 17 091 17 096 13 086 73390 70129 11 121 12 100 11 096 13 097 10 114 70129 67129 11 125 11 126 5 125 5 122 9 111 67129 64337 7 111 11 137 10 176 8 208 1 158 64337 61621 6 268 11 159 11 186 15 200 9 253 61621 58785 16 248 9 191 14 214 16 216 16 229 58785 55835 19 232 14 235 16 215 19 225 18 233 55835 53020 17 222 19 236 21 224 27 230 27 240 53020 50492 21 241 25 235 24 222 27 215 29 225 50492 48215 31 236 31 237 28 241 24 230 26 233 48215 46132 34 235 39 231 39 237 34 240 32 246 46132 44222 37 229 42 222 41 226 38 232 36 248 44222 42469 33 224 35 220 32 229 32 230 37 246 42469 40854 32 231 25 248 26 237 27 243 35 241 40854 39355 31 240 26 261 25 256 25 256 31 252 39355 37957 26 238 24 264 28 264 23 275 29 262 37957 36616 24 244 22 264 27 267 25 289 27 268 36616 35259 23 253 20 267 24 275 29 289 27 274 35259 33851 24 255 19 271 24 288 29 285 29 277 33851 32390 23 255 19 275 25 294 27 286 30 279 32390 30861 21 255 20 278 24 299 25 286 30 280 30861 29250 19 259 20 282 25 304 23 283 29 278 29250 27556 19 265 21 283 23 302 21 282 28 275 27556 25779 20 268 21 282 22 297 20 282 27 273 25779 23918 20 269 21 276 21 291 19 282 24 274 23918 21976 18 268 19 271 19 280 19 281 22 276 21976 19948 14 256 19 264 19 272 19 280 19 279 19948 17831 13 241 17 245 12 245 17 274 17 278 17831 15678 12 250 14 239 13 248 14 265 14 271 15678 13611 13 260 9 261 12 250 14 273 14 270 13611 11737 11 271 5 250 10 238 13 277 13 282 11737 10073 10 281 4 233 9 235 12 276 8 286 10073 8594 8 285 1 288 5 232 10 274 4 278 8594 7277 6 278 3 358 2 256 8 280 3 257 7277 6111 2 226 3 347 2 306 7 297 11 287 6111 5084 3 165 3 328 3 314 7 316 14 322 5084 4181 2 207 3 333 3 329 7 330 17 357 4181 3385 1 265 4 347 6*343 9 339 17 358 3385 2672 1 258 6 349 8*341 13*346 17 353 2672 2042 0 160 8*002 8 335 15*344 16 349 2042 1516 1 053 9*006 8 332 16 340 14 346 1516 1112 4 356 9 004 8 329 15 337 12*343 1112 834 6 348 8 003 8 327 14 336 10*340 834 666 5*344 7 002 7 326 13 336 9 339 666 569 3*340 6 001 6 324 10 335 6 337 569 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography