DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 05/18 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0657z - - 1010z - - 1334z - - 1600z - - 1859z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 66.5 - - 76.5 - - 82.1 - - 85.7 - - 79.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -7 - - 71 - - 90 - - 100 - - -63 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 2058 - - 4850 - - 7011 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 552 - - 1190 - - 3367 - - 5011 - - 553 Hcrit BL Top 570 - - 2653 - - 5445 - - 7606 - - 571 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 221 - - 1941 - - 2849 - - 1770 - - 6835 Hgt.Variab. W* 14 - - 236 - - 336 - - 388 - - 21 W* B/S 0 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 21 - - 28 - - 28 - - 9 BL Wind Direction 164 - - 200 - - 206 - - 200 - - 185 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 14 - - 21 - - 16 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - 2 - - 7 - - -3 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1032 - - -488 - - 1148 - - 1230 - - -4134 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 1602 - - 3141 - - 4297 - - 6376 - - 4705 sfcLCL ODpotential -5357 - - -2777 - - -380 - - -1269 - - -5678 ODpotential blCL 5927 - - 5430 - - 5825 - - 8875 - - 6249 blCL maxRH 73 - - 88 - - 89 - - 83 - - 65 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 470 - - 1300 - - 530 - - 410 CAPE Temp@2m 66.5 - - 76.5 - - 82.1 - - 85.7 - - 79.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 61.2 - - 64.4 - - 64.9 - - 59.5 - - 60.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 67.0 - - 76.3 - - 81.8 - - 85.2 - - 80.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 60.8 - - 63.1 - - 63.6 - - 58.2 - - 59.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -7 - - 71 - - 90 - - 100 - - -63 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 2058 - - 4850 - - 7011 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 50 - - 54 - - 31 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 12 - - 12 - - 12 - - 9 - - 11 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97942 17 075 23 089 23 116 14 101 11 087 97942 90535 24 102 25 100 25 101 18 094 23 095 90535 84879 25 099 25 099 23 097 21 100 25 084 84879 80187 25 096 24 100 19 094 23 106 20 082 80187 76133 19 090 20 102 15 098 19 107 18 093 76133 72552 16 089 15 106 12 102 13 108 16 106 72552 69316 10 059 12 112 8 113 10 114 11 110 69316 66345 6 350 10 106 5 141 6 141 4 119 66345 63591 3 320 6 072 5 121 6 177 6 230 63591 60918 9 285 5 286 2 171 4 192 9 223 60918 58128 11 254 11 251 12 222 11 265 8 263 58128 55243 14 278 12 258 13 233 13 244 7 246 55243 52506 27 260 22 269 28 267 19 252 9 243 52506 50046 27 253 36 266 37 259 25 247 23 231 50046 47820 33 253 47 261 35 249 36 246 36 227 47820 45786 40 251 50 253 39 241 46 239 48 230 45786 43946 38 247 41 241 45 224 50 223 49 210 43946 42286 35 238 40 237 42 210 49 206 37 207 42286 40754 35 226 39 223 48 209 42 209 32 205 40754 39310 31 219 40 217 47 210 37 216 34 199 39310 37942 31 224 43 215 45 212 38 220 37 202 37942 36611 30 228 41 213 44 214 40 223 35 211 36611 35251 29 229 37 215 43 217 41 223 36 221 35251 33834 28 226 36 219 43 220 42 219 42 226 33834 32365 27 218 36 219 41 218 42 217 47 231 32365 30829 27 212 35 213 40 214 44 218 49 231 30829 29210 28 217 37 213 41 214 46 221 48 221 29210 27511 27 222 42 220 42 221 46 222 51 213 27511 25733 26 229 43 227 39 226 43 219 51 212 25733 23879 27 234 38 229 37 226 39 213 48 212 23879 21949 27 234 31 229 36 225 36 214 45 205 21949 19940 23 238 24 239 31 219 29 217 41 206 19940 17847 17 245 19 245 24 214 25 213 38 202 17847 15710 20 237 17 238 22 209 26 206 38 200 15710 13650 24 224 24 227 24 210 28 198 40 204 13650 11782 24 218 26 221 26 206 27 193 41 212 11782 10127 23 212 26 211 29 210 27 200 40 216 10127 8659 24 209 26 203 33 217 32*205 37 213 8659 7352 26 209 28 206 36 217 32*204 36 210 7352 6188 27 213 29 213 36*215 31 203 34 202 6188 5154 29 215 31 218 35*214 30 201 32 197 5154 4241 32 215 33 218 33 211 29 200 31 195 4241 3433 35 216 33 214 29 206 29 199 30 194 3433 2708 35 216 31*211 28 204 28 199 28 193 2708 2067 33 215 26*204 26 203 27 198 27 192 2067 1533 27 212 23 200 25 203 26 198 25 191 1533 1122 20 196 21 198 23 202 25 198 22 190 1122 839 16 174 19 197 21 202 23 197 18 188 839 667 14*172 17 197 19 201 20 197 15*187 667 570 6*164 13 196 15 201 16 197 9*185 570 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography