DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 06/23 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0659z - - 0959z - - 1334z - - 1603z - - 1901z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 68.5 - - 81.7 - - 86.9 - - 88.0 - - 83.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 2 - - 99 - - 163 - - 62 - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 3003 - - 5628 - - 5766 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 558 - - 2050 - - 4275 - - 3782 - - 558 Hcrit BL Top 575 - - 3598 - - 6223 - - 6361 - - 576 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 209 - - 2516 - - 1046 - - 1855 - - 7039 Hgt.Variab. W* 17 - - 287 - - 417 - - 323 - - 20 W* B/S 1 - - 7 - - 12 - - 9 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 8 - - 6 - - 7 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 009 - - 048 - - 034 - - 005 - - 015 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 7 - - 5 - - 3 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - -5 - - -4 - - -2 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1406 - - -2746 - - -1337 - - -1638 - - -4688 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 1981 - - 6344 - - 7561 - - 8000 - - 5264 sfcLCL ODpotential -5089 - - -10346 - - -7173 - - -7546 - - -6743 ODpotential blCL 5664 - - 13944 - - 13396 - - 13907 - - 7319 blCL maxRH 72 - - 61 - - 84 - - 88 - - 52 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 10 CAPE Temp@2m 68.5 - - 81.7 - - 86.9 - - 88.0 - - 83.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 61.8 - - 56.0 - - 55.8 - - 55.0 - - 62.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 68.8 - - 81.1 - - 85.8 - - 87.7 - - 84.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 61.4 - - 54.7 - - 54.4 - - 53.7 - - 60.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 2 - - 99 - - 163 - - 62 - - -19 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 3003 - - 5628 - - 5766 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 35 - - 52 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 12 - - 8 - - 8 - - 8 - - 12 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98708 30 084 34 093 28 093 20 088 28 082 98708 91221 27 091 28 104 32 094 23 094 22 081 91221 85455 28 079 26 104 28 093 27 094 24 095 85455 80675 21 076 25 091 23 094 25 095 24 095 80675 76579 20 095 26 087 21 096 22 093 24 083 76579 72967 20 090 21 086 22 101 19 094 23 082 72967 69698 17 087 20 095 19 097 17 096 16 084 69698 66705 17 073 15 088 19 100 11 102 8 088 66705 63947 12 080 10 103 8 106 9 103 7 096 63947 61290 9 061 5 067 7 121 1 167 8 008 61290 58541 7 142 5 210 8 247 5 255 9 313 58541 55703 9 015 5 350 10 261 13 266 17 278 55703 53006 22 312 17 303 21 287 23 284 26 285 53006 50597 26 292 28 282 26 282 30 285 27 288 50597 48452 26 289 33 273 28 278 36 279 35 284 48452 46507 31 299 32 280 29 275 35 273 41 279 46507 44714 39 299 36 296 35 298 42 287 45 281 44714 43045 38 289 44 297 46 298 48 288 49 287 43045 41482 39 287 47 291 49 292 53 288 49 290 41482 40007 40 285 45 290 49 292 53 289 49 284 40007 38612 38 287 42 291 49 298 49 288 47 283 38612 37257 34 287 42 290 47 297 43 284 45 283 37257 35873 32 289 43 289 48 297 44 288 44 282 35873 34429 35 295 46 290 48 293 48 296 45 281 34429 32928 41 299 48 290 49 288 51 302 46 279 32928 31354 42 297 40 290 48 292 50 304 42 278 31354 29698 36 294 36 287 45 293 43 299 39 285 29698 27961 34 290 35 281 37 291 39 289 33 299 27961 26145 34 289 34 282 36 289 35 295 28 295 26145 24246 33 291 33 289 34 288 33 302 29 300 24246 22273 27 299 29 305 26 291 30 303 25 309 22273 20221 22 300 21 305 16 292 17 300 16 296 20221 18087 20 314 19 306 13 292 9 298 7 288 18087 15913 20 323 18 313 12 297 8 295 7 294 15913 13816 19 318 19 324 13 313 9 326 7 314 13816 11908 18 317 22 327 16 326 14 344 12 346 11908 10216 15 318 15 332 13 322 16 341 15 346 10216 8723 10 341 13 001 10 342 14 336 12 338 8723 7402 11 024 13 010 12*014 9*352 10 339 7402 6229 14 030 15 021 8*024 8*357 9 348 6229 5188 15 034 16 030 8 027 7 360 9 359 5188 4269 15 035 13*037 7 031 7 003 9 005 4269 3455 13 035 12*039 6 034 7 005 10 007 3455 2726 13 034 10 046 6 038 7 007 10 010 2726 2081 14 034 7 050 5 041 7 009 10 012 2081 1544 14 035 7 051 5 045 6 009 10 013 1544 1131 13 028 6 052 5 047 6 010 10 013 1131 846 13 016 6 053 4 049 6 010 9 014 846 674 11*013 5 054 4 050 6 010 7*015 674 575 4*009 5 054 4 050 5 010 5*015 575 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography