DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 05/20 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0657z - - 0958z - - 1330z - - 1600z - - 1900z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 65.6 - - 73.8 - - 76.4 - - 80.8 - - 77.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 3 - - 102 - - 175 - - 91 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1333 - - 2019 - - 3153 - - 2242 BL Depth Hcrit 544 - - 544 - - 1630 - - 2137 - - 545 Hcrit BL Top 561 - - 1928 - - 2614 - - 3748 - - 2837 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 235 - - 823 - - 691 - - 1769 - - 1671 Hgt.Variab. W* 18 - - 220 - - 300 - - 289 - - 98 W* B/S 1 - - 10 - - 13 - - 17 - - 3 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 3 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 169 - - 168 - - 286 - - 011 - - 079 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 3 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - -6 - - -4 - - -3 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -605 - - -668 - - 519 - - 417 - - 407 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 1166 - - 2597 - - 2095 - - 3332 - - 2430 sfcLCL ODpotential -5428 - - -5311 - - -2629 - - -1413 - - -1655 ODpotential blCL 5989 - - 7239 - - 5243 - - 5161 - - 4492 blCL maxRH 89 - - 87 - - 95 - - 83 - - 91 maxRH CAPE 660 - - 470 - - 1660 - - 1690 - - 1580 CAPE Temp@2m 65.6 - - 73.8 - - 76.4 - - 80.8 - - 77.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 62.3 - - 64.2 - - 68.8 - - 67.9 - - 68.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 65.6 - - 73.5 - - 76.0 - - 80.5 - - 78.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 61.9 - - 63.4 - - 68.2 - - 66.9 - - 67.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 3 - - 102 - - 175 - - 91 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1333 - - 2019 - - 3153 - - 2242 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 56 - - 49 - - 80 - - 33 - - 63 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 12 - - 12 - - 15 - - 13 - - 14 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98061 12 285 5 258 7 246 13 291 7 276 98061 90639 9 253 12 263 20 264 23 272 14 302 90639 84942 5 275 15 249 15 260 16 275 16 290 84942 80236 4 309 8 227 10 265 10 271 14 285 80236 76189 6 320 3 323 5 239 8 257 13 304 76189 72617 5 310 7 284 1 101 4 255 10 302 72617 69404 6 319 6 221 2 233 3 343 8 268 69404 66477 14 290 4 218 6 287 5 005 3 172 66477 63770 18 255 9 221 14 273 12 287 3 325 63770 61141 23 210 13 213 19 230 15 243 11 252 61141 58393 21 198 14 268 14 235 14 253 13 252 58393 55536 24 224 33 251 28 248 30 253 27 257 55536 52817 30 221 42 225 39 232 42 230 36 243 52817 50369 23 221 35 212 38 222 38 213 32 238 50369 48173 19 245 23 223 30 221 29 221 33 243 48173 46188 32 249 13 242 27 226 33 237 35 249 46188 44380 43 237 10 252 35 221 39 231 36 247 44380 42721 43 224 15 218 31 207 37 219 37 242 42721 41181 34 237 15 237 24 185 38 222 43 232 41181 39736 46 258 28 262 19 236 41 224 43 221 39736 38366 57 268 27 247 20 241 41 229 41 218 38366 37031 53 265 20 232 18 234 38 231 41 219 37031 35665 38 262 17 233 19 237 32 219 39 220 35665 34238 31 257 22 247 21 246 28 221 35 220 34238 32754 33 254 26 256 26 256 30 233 33 220 32754 31199 37 253 29 250 27 261 31 240 31 221 31199 29559 37 252 29 241 26 260 31 244 28 218 29559 27835 36 251 26 244 28 254 29 239 28 221 27835 26028 37 250 27 244 32 247 30 239 23 225 26028 24147 39 251 34 243 34 248 31 248 21 230 24147 22192 35 256 36 243 35 248 31 251 24 229 22192 20157 29 255 37 247 36 243 36 245 27 233 20157 18034 26 252 37 247 34 238 39 238 30 235 18034 15867 29 252 38 240 34 235 37 231 32 235 15867 13781 30 244 38 237 34 234 36 238 29 237 13781 11887 30 234 34 231 33 239 34 247 20 255 11887 10205 29 220 29 222 29 239 30 251 13 263 10205 8712 24 220 27 217 27 234 26 257 12 259 8712 7382 19 246 24 223 24 240 20 259 10 261 7382 6202 20 262 19 236 22 262 12 261 7 217 6202 5155 22 265 16 249 19 278 7 257 7 178 5155 4234 23 265 15 260 13 291 1*049 9 125 4234 3423 23 257 14 269 6 289 2*027 8*101 3423 2698 23 245 9 278 4*281 3 019 7*084 2698 2057 20 237 4*262 4*282 3 012 7 081 2057 1523 14 232 4*174 4 285 3 008 6 079 1523 1112 10 219 4 169 4 287 3 004 6 077 1112 831 9 181 4 167 4 289 3 003 5 076 831 659 8*175 4 166 4 289 3 002 5 075 659 561 4*169 4 165 4 290 3 003 4 074 561 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography