DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 01/21 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0657z - - 0957z - - 1333z - - 1600z - - 1859z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 12.5 - - 14.0 - - 22.8 - - 21.2 - - 21.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 7 - - 45 - - 131 - - 8 - - -34 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 460 - - 479 - - 2081 - - 1315 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 548 - - 548 - - 1471 - - 549 - - 549 Hcrit BL Top 1055 - - 1074 - - 2676 - - 1910 - - 566 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 638 - - 590 - - 617 - - 1184 - - 1936 Hgt.Variab. W* 62 - - 113 - - 264 - - 95 - - 8 W* B/S 1 - - 2 - - 2 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 8 - - 13 - - 21 - - 21 - - 13 BL Wind Direction 087 - - 114 - - 137 - - 135 - - 127 Direction Wind Shear 4 - - 7 - - 10 - - 13 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - -1 - - -1 - - -3 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -780 - - -558 - - 582 - - 404 - - -923 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 1835 - - 1632 - - 2094 - - 1506 - - 1489 sfcLCL ODpotential -17870 - - -17415 - - -183 - - -86 - - -1882 ODpotential blCL 18925 - - 18489 - - 2859 - - 1996 - - 2448 blCL maxRH 89 - - 84 - - 86 - - 94 - - 83 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 12.5 - - 14.0 - - 22.8 - - 21.2 - - 21.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 7.1 - - 9.6 - - 16.2 - - 17.2 - - 17.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 12.6 - - 14.0 - - 22.2 - - 21.3 - - 21.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 6.4 - - 9.0 - - 14.7 - - 16.7 - - 17.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 7 - - 45 - - 131 - - 8 - - -34 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 460 - - 479 - - 2081 - - 1315 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 57 - - 36 - - 42 - - 78 - - 31 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 1 - - 1 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95316 59 255 52 261 38 260 43 233 62 250 95316 88099 38 264 37 253 42 251 44 254 38 267 88099 82693 28 268 28 252 35 247 43 256 31 273 82693 78236 23 265 21 261 26 249 33 246 29 269 78236 74389 30 280 19 265 22 250 26 239 26 264 74389 71004 31 286 20 274 21 261 26 243 26 258 71004 67947 34 282 25 285 22 266 26 249 20 257 67947 65112 32 285 32 284 27 269 26 259 29 254 65112 62443 41 285 39 281 32 271 32 255 35 250 62443 59814 44 291 43 280 28 270 37 256 43 249 59814 57038 56 297 44 288 45 275 49 266 49 262 57038 54129 64 289 58 285 62 268 60 262 62 269 54129 51345 70 281 65 275 61 271 62 265 73 266 51345 48861 72 279 59 276 71 277 74 274 81 268 48861 46664 73 288 69 292 84 280 85 279 96 275 46664 44702 76 300 95 291 99 284 101 286 120 272 44702 42943 104 298 118 291 126 289 132 283 132 273 42943 41328 124 296 146 292 157 288 148 281 136 274 41328 39814 140 297 155 292 157 285 146 280 136 273 39814 38384 144 296 142 292 149 285 143 279 134 273 38384 37029 137 295 133 293 140 287 139 280 131 274 37029 35712 133 294 132 294 130 289 131 281 128 274 35712 34367 129 294 128 294 120 289 117 281 122 276 34367 32968 122 295 122 294 113 289 102 281 108 280 32968 31520 113 296 113 297 107 288 90 279 87 280 31520 30006 98 296 102 297 96 287 82 278 73 273 30006 28412 90 295 91 297 83 286 78 281 69 274 28412 26738 83 299 83 298 75 288 78 282 74 272 26738 24988 77 301 82 296 71 286 78 282 77 263 24988 23165 70 298 79 292 70 286 71 284 73 260 23165 21266 68 296 72 290 68 287 67 281 66 261 21266 19277 67 298 68 290 62 283 63 278 58 264 19277 17194 66 299 63 292 54 282 56 277 47 269 17194 15065 59 296 54 298 47 281 41 273 38 268 15065 13017 48 290 42 303 42 284 34 263 32 251 13017 11167 34 303 35 296 31 293 32 254 29 244 11167 9535 30 302 28 293 25 279 22 252 29 246 9535 8092 26 293 18 284 18 263 22 247 25 235 8092 6816 14 293 11 261 14 237 18 233 20 229 6816 5691 3 256 8 222 12 208 19 218 18 211 5691 4703 4 189 10 172 16 176 21 188 23 195 4703 3844 6 172 13 145 22 156 29 168 30 179 3844 3104 8 153 16 137 24*143 30 157 35 161 3104 2455 9 138 19 134 24*139 28*149 35 150 2455 1886 10 114 20 131 23 137 25*140 33 141 1886 1414 10*098 20*128 21 136 23 136 30 136 1414 1051 9*090 17*118 20 136 21 134 27 133 1051 803 8 086 13 113 19 135 19 132 22 130 803 652 7 085 12 112 17 135 16 132 19*129 652 565 6 084 9 111 14 135 12 131 13*127 565 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography