DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 01/18 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0659z - - 1001z - - 1336z - - 1601z - - 1901z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 24.2 - - 30.3 - - 44.8 - - 50.1 - - 43.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -29 - - -14 - - 69 - - 2 - - -51 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 16 - - 1079 - - 1409 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 554 - - 554 - - 556 - - 556 - - 556 Hcrit BL Top 572 - - 572 - - 1674 - - 2004 - - 573 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 242 - - 493 - - 537 - - 1056 - - 824 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 8 - - 176 - - 92 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 10 - - 21 - - 24 - - 10 BL Wind Direction 162 - - 163 - - 186 - - 192 - - 181 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 9 - - 14 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - 1 - - 2 - - 4 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -258 - - -285 - - -97 - - -405 - - -610 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 830 - - 857 - - 1771 - - 2409 - - 1184 sfcLCL ODpotential -13195 - - -11286 - - -5915 - - -6372 - - -7690 ODpotential blCL 13767 - - 11858 - - 7589 - - 8376 - - 8263 blCL maxRH 92 - - 92 - - 86 - - 79 - - 80 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 24.2 - - 30.3 - - 44.8 - - 50.1 - - 43.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 22.9 - - 28.8 - - 39.1 - - 41.5 - - 39.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 26.0 - - 31.1 - - 44.6 - - 50.4 - - 44.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 24.1 - - 28.6 - - 38.3 - - 40.9 - - 39.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -29 - - -14 - - 69 - - 2 - - -51 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 16 - - 1079 - - 1409 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 70 - - 68 - - 44 - - 16 - - 21 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 5 - - 5 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96176 28 268 26 285 15 306 13 300 19 279 96176 89047 17 285 15 271 15 273 14 286 19 278 89047 83484 14 296 9 283 11 293 12 269 18 271 83484 78852 18 288 14 282 16 278 14 268 16 274 78852 74845 23 288 13 273 19 261 19 268 18 274 74845 71291 24 282 15 278 20 259 20 261 20 275 71291 68071 26 274 21 271 27 272 24 269 25 281 68071 65103 32 271 29 269 34 276 28 269 31 279 65103 62346 31 268 34 274 37 278 30 269 36 265 62346 59674 38 277 42 277 37 280 30 273 38 269 59674 56879 46 283 45 277 44 276 42 275 46 275 56879 53969 55 286 53 279 56 273 54 272 53 267 53969 51200 59 283 63 281 63 271 58 273 54 269 51200 48719 62 282 68 280 64 271 59 272 57 272 48719 46498 63 285 68 283 65 272 60 270 64 271 46498 44481 67 289 70 285 66 274 65 271 67 268 44481 42635 71 287 73 283 69 275 70 272 66 268 42635 40943 73 285 77 278 74 277 74 272 66 273 40943 39388 72 285 81 273 84 271 75 265 68 270 39388 37953 72 286 81 275 84 269 71 261 67 265 37953 36618 74 288 82 280 82 268 71 261 64 257 36618 35336 76 288 82 283 78 271 69 261 60 248 35336 34032 78 288 78 284 73 272 68 261 56 258 34032 32672 77 288 73 280 70 277 66 265 54 260 32672 31258 75 291 66 279 67 280 64 266 53 265 31258 29775 74 293 62 282 64 280 58 267 54 266 29775 28210 71 295 63 284 63 276 53 276 54 264 28210 26568 65 293 63 286 61 274 53 277 51 262 26568 24848 60 294 61 286 57 274 52 275 43 263 24848 23052 56 299 58 285 54 274 49 274 40 264 23052 21188 48 303 55 284 52 274 47 272 39 262 21188 19244 44 299 48 282 47 275 45 269 40 265 19244 17215 44 292 41 280 44 271 45 267 40 269 17215 15145 44 291 35 280 39 266 45 267 43 266 15145 13147 37 290 33 279 34 267 42 265 43 263 13147 11331 29 291 33 279 33 272 36 267 34 259 11331 9721 29 283 30 275 33 266 33 266 30 261 9721 8291 28 278 26 262 35 251 35 258 34 265 8291 7019 22 272 22 248 35 237 39 248 37 262 7019 5889 23 264 22 239 31 223 34 238 35 252 5889 4891 28 253 24 230 30 227 30 236 33 246 4891 4017 25 238 23 225 33 228 33 229 37 241 4017 3250 22 223 26 219 35 220 34 214 42 230 3250 2566 22 208 32 206 34 206 32*204 40 216 2566 1966 24 197 35 192 31*199 28*195 37 203 1966 1467 25 188 33 183 24*188 27 193 32 194 1467 1084 25 181 28 176 23 186 25 191 28 189 1084 822 18 170 18 165 21 185 22 190 21 184 822 663 15*167 16*164 19 185 19 189 18*182 663 572 7*162 10*163 15 184 15 188 10*181 572 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography