DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 09/21 Silvercreek_IL 595ft pt32094@38.850,-89.766,540ft SPONSORED BY: Barry Marcus BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0659z - - 1003z - - 1333z - - 1605z - - 1901z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 70.4 - - 71.7 - - 76.6 - - 78.6 - - 77.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -19 - - -30 - - 51 - - 13 - - -33 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 16 - - 1013 - - 616 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 552 - - 553 - - 553 - - 553 - - 553 Hcrit BL Top 570 - - 570 - - 1608 - - 1211 - - 571 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 603 - - 912 - - 1561 - - 1941 - - 2235 Hgt.Variab. W* 9 - - 15 - - 162 - - 105 - - 14 W* B/S 0 - - 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 9 - - 23 - - 16 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 164 - - 183 - - 199 - - 175 - - 180 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 16 - - 11 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 1 - - 1 - - 2 - - -1 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -395 - - -720 - - -191 - - -827 - - -1133 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 965 - - 1290 - - 1799 - - 2038 - - 1704 sfcLCL ODpotential -4089 - - -3096 - - -2060 - - -3294 - - -2896 ODpotential blCL 4659 - - 3666 - - 3668 - - 4505 - - 3467 blCL maxRH 88 - - 95 - - 100 - - 97 - - 94 maxRH CAPE 50 - - 250 - - 590 - - 920 - - 940 CAPE Temp@2m 70.4 - - 71.7 - - 76.6 - - 78.6 - - 77.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 67.9 - - 67.8 - - 70.4 - - 71.3 - - 71.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 71.0 - - 72.3 - - 76.5 - - 78.7 - - 78.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 67.9 - - 67.6 - - 69.8 - - 70.4 - - 70.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -19 - - -30 - - 51 - - 13 - - -33 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 16 - - 1013 - - 616 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 53 - - 79 - - 101 - - 89 - - 76 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 15 - - 15 - - 15 - - 16 - - 17 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97976 20 029 12 055 5 096 7 321 10 031 97976 90730 9 047 9 041 8 056 6 110 2 292 90730 85117 7 071 8 047 9 046 7 095 2 298 85117 80439 9 062 7 072 4 051 3 053 6 030 80439 76401 8 060 7 089 3 126 1 299 7 025 76401 72834 8 070 7 088 6 126 1 143 4 000 72834 69617 7 061 6 083 8 108 4 155 1 226 69617 66668 4 051 4 097 7 100 6 130 6 183 66668 63939 2 089 3 145 2 130 4 115 10 171 63939 61315 4 117 8 137 5 191 4 203 8 184 61315 58607 5 341 5 113 6 190 8 215 10 221 58607 55818 15 276 12 260 14 248 16 231 20 228 55818 53175 16 253 22 266 23 255 32 257 30 262 53175 50819 15 304 29 269 36 252 47 249 42 258 50819 48711 27 300 26 275 29 245 34 241 38 254 48711 46775 29 299 24 284 26 252 24 248 34 268 46775 44971 30 309 29 291 32 272 31 275 48 277 44971 43284 45 304 39 287 49 288 48 283 55 274 43284 41699 62 293 51 282 60 282 52 277 56 269 41699 40203 65 283 58 280 61 276 52 271 55 267 40203 38792 59 278 57 277 56 275 51 267 57 271 38792 37424 52 279 49 273 41 274 46 262 51 272 37424 36028 45 289 39 268 34 262 37 258 40 257 36028 34571 28 298 27 265 34 258 35 251 33 250 34571 33056 19 290 21 271 31 249 38 243 30 251 33056 31472 16 282 18 269 20 232 35 235 30 247 31472 29808 15 272 16 268 19 230 29 226 31 244 29808 28062 11 268 17 263 19 235 25 223 30 242 28062 26235 12 255 20 253 21 239 22 226 29 235 26235 24329 18 238 24 248 21 243 21 245 26 234 24329 22348 25 239 24 243 24 236 25 260 24 240 22348 20289 26 239 23 241 26 230 22 264 23 235 20289 18146 24 237 25 236 25 235 20 247 20 233 18146 15963 21 236 22 231 23 228 22 235 24 230 15963 13862 20 229 22 231 20 222 22 224 27 216 13862 11951 19 217 17 224 17 212 22 218 25 211 11951 10255 19 209 15 212 17 205 24 217 24 215 10255 8750 20 211 18 215 18 212 25 213 23 219 8750 7416 22 214 23 221 21 218 25 211 24 221 7416 6233 24 217 28 216 23 217 25 213 25 225 6233 5185 26 218 32 209 26 213 25 217 26 223 5185 4262 28 216 32 206 28 210 26 215 26 217 4262 3446 30 210 31 206 30 207 27 208 26 210 3446 2717 33 203 32 205 31 205 29 201 26 201 2717 2073 34 199 33 203 31*203 28 193 25 195 2073 1536 30 192 31 198 29*201 25*184 24 191 1536 1123 23 178 26 192 25 199 21*178 22 187 1123 839 16 169 20 187 22 198 17 174 17 183 839 668 14*167 17*185 19 198 15 173 14*182 668 570 7*164 9*183 13 198 10 171 7*180 570 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography