DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 12/20 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 49.8 - - 59.9 - - 65.7 - - 61.0 - - 54.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -17 - - 85 - - 132 - - -12 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1330 - - 2953 - - 38 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4357 - - 6380 - - 4357 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 6158 - - 7781 - - 4866 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1611 - - 1457 - - 1540 - - 4489 - - 1809 Hgt.Variab. W* 4 - - 205 - - 307 - - 9 - - 3 W* B/S 0 - - 6 - - 9 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 6 - - 6 - - 7 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 067 - - 155 - - 193 - - 151 - - 086 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 6 - - 8 - - 4 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -10 - - 7 - - 14 - - 14 - - -6 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -5404 - - -5259 - - -4578 - - -5784 - - -4940 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 9778 - - 11418 - - 12359 - - 10651 - - 9314 sfcLCL ODpotential -15559 - - -13348 - - -11259 - - -13055 - - -13341 ODpotential blCL 19933 - - 19506 - - 19040 - - 17921 - - 17715 blCL maxRH 47 - - 59 - - 65 - - 69 - - 74 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 49.8 - - 59.9 - - 65.7 - - 61.0 - - 54.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 22.9 - - 25.5 - - 26.8 - - 29.9 - - 29.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 56.3 - - 60.2 - - 65.5 - - 64.4 - - 60.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 22.1 - - 24.5 - - 26.1 - - 29.1 - - 28.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -17 - - 85 - - 132 - - -12 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1330 - - 2953 - - 38 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96320 17 286 23 276 29 249 34 271 45 277 96320 89198 15 273 17 273 13 277 13 283 14 275 89198 83703 15 241 18 272 22 292 19 306 13 305 83703 79123 10 259 15 245 20 292 20 298 23 313 79123 75183 12 306 13 256 15 282 20 274 23 294 75183 71719 14 301 19 278 21 310 19 317 18 313 71719 68622 27 321 28 307 31 314 28 317 21 321 68622 65807 32 311 20 313 22 309 22 304 17 314 65807 63181 19 322 19 321 19 272 18 274 13 248 63181 60612 23 339 25 297 24 281 20 296 27 304 60612 57932 41 309 37 291 40 296 41 296 43 294 57932 55144 52 300 47 303 48 298 48 294 49 293 55144 52458 50 290 60 298 52 300 51 293 55 292 52458 50022 50 292 61 292 56 293 56 292 58 290 50022 47822 57 305 61 291 60 289 62 291 59 296 47822 45815 68 306 63 294 63 289 66 293 64 302 45815 43972 74 300 69 294 67 291 68 296 70 302 43972 42282 69 291 72 289 70 290 70 294 73 299 42282 40729 59 290 65 284 67 285 67 290 72 296 40729 39288 51 294 54 284 57 274 61 282 63 289 39288 37939 50 299 50 282 54 270 57 279 54 282 37939 36643 49 300 46 275 54 268 51 281 49 279 36643 35335 48 297 41 266 53 269 45 283 46 282 35335 33987 46 293 43 271 49 274 42 286 45 288 33987 32604 45 289 49 275 47 281 41 289 45 294 32604 31172 45 288 53 280 47 288 41 291 43 297 31172 29681 48 290 53 285 48 292 42 292 40 297 29681 28134 51 293 51 287 49 293 45 295 38 294 28134 26532 52 295 50 286 49 291 48 297 41 295 26532 24877 51 293 50 284 48 289 48 296 44 299 24877 23173 49 289 50 283 49 288 46 293 45 301 23173 21416 49 286 50 285 49 288 45 291 43 298 21416 19601 48 285 49 287 48 288 44 293 41 291 19601 17759 45 286 46 287 45 287 43 293 41 287 17759 15987 40 288 41 285 42 285 42 289 39 286 15987 14374 37 290 35 284 39 283 41 285 37 284 14374 12937 35 288 32 285 35 282 38 283 35 282 12937 11655 34 287 30 287 30 285 32 284 31 282 11655 10510 32 285 28 287 26 287 23 283 24 280 10510 9486 27 282 23 283 20 283 15 270 15 268 9486 8571 22 275 17 270 14*268 10 256 10 240 8571 7755 15 260 11 240 9*237 7 236 9 225 7755 7025 10 232 10 203 7 204 6 200 9 219 7025 6364 8 196 10*181 7 190 7 177 9 212 6364 5774 9 168 10*173 6 184 9 168 8 201 5774 5278 9 153 7 159 6 180 9 164 7 181 5278 4894 8 134 6 145 6 177 9*161 6 155 4894 4628 7 109 5 142 6 175 8*156 6 117 4628 4466 6*083 5 141 6 175 7 150 6*104 4466 4373 6*067 5 141 5 175 4 143 5*086 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography