DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 11/22 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 44.1 - - 55.8 - - 58.2 - - 53.6 - - 47.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -31 - - -3 - - -7 - - -29 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1922 - - 3553 - - 16 - - 526 BL Depth Hcrit 4355 - - 4356 - - 4357 - - 4356 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4373 - - 6750 - - 8381 - - 4374 - - 5354 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 456 - - 3914 - - 4873 - - 6568 - - 1918 Hgt.Variab. W* 13 - - 136 - - 164 - - 17 - - 58 W* B/S 0 - - 2 - - 2 - - 0 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 16 - - 14 - - 6 - - 15 BL Wind Direction 038 - - 114 - - 144 - - 031 - - 057 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 15 - - 13 - - 0 - - 9 Wind Shear Max.Converg -15 - - 27 - - 19 - - -15 - - -33 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -647 - - 40 - - 1572 - - -903 - - 982 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 5021 - - 6711 - - 6809 - - 5277 - - 4372 sfcLCL ODpotential -5148 - - -3583 - - -1701 - - -3434 - - -1521 ODpotential blCL 9521 - - 10333 - - 10082 - - 7808 - - 6875 blCL maxRH 85 - - 92 - - 98 - - 100 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 70 - - 510 - - 630 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 44.1 - - 55.8 - - 58.2 - - 53.6 - - 47.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 37.4 - - 41.6 - - 43.4 - - 45.5 - - 43.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 48.3 - - 57.2 - - 59.7 - - 56.8 - - 49.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 36.3 - - 40.3 - - 42.2 - - 44.2 - - 42.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -31 - - -3 - - -7 - - -29 - - -12 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1922 - - 3553 - - 16 - - 526 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 41 - - 68 - - 93 - - 101 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 5 - - 5 - - 7 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96513 0 359 10 249 12 272 13 324 10 315 96513 89308 2 064 5 019 3 231 7 310 5 040 89308 83796 4 080 2 354 4 236 8 292 6 338 83796 79252 10 359 6 145 6 234 3 279 8 295 79252 75338 3 302 5 150 4 055 3 174 7 228 75338 71873 8 260 10 228 6 001 4 334 5 199 71873 68728 7 269 12 231 10 306 7 313 6 265 68728 65821 10 257 13 215 15 254 11 265 9 278 65821 63107 11 230 10 221 18 223 19 242 13 255 63107 60471 14 246 8 239 17 221 25 237 21 239 60471 57704 20 229 13 227 20 230 27 229 23 245 57704 54813 26 220 23 234 23 235 23 240 34 229 54813 52049 24 227 28 227 32 217 34 224 32 219 52049 49544 29 231 28 217 29 189 26 205 26 228 49544 47284 30 221 33 231 23 225 30 231 33 236 47284 45231 33 228 52 234 44 235 48 224 43 231 45231 43343 50 224 57 212 55 213 50 206 48 223 43343 41596 53 215 46 210 50 206 45 203 42 220 41596 39978 52 221 58 222 58 215 43 214 42 219 39978 38477 67 229 72 215 73 216 55 220 46 218 38477 37087 84 226 81 211 85 212 68 218 46 210 37087 35765 93 220 87 208 94 208 80 209 50 206 35765 34447 92 216 88 205 95 205 84 205 54 199 34447 33115 87 213 83 204 89 203 76 204 53 189 33115 31770 81 211 78 203 77 202 64 201 54 182 31770 30387 79 209 77 200 63 200 56 196 61 176 30387 28948 77 209 75 199 62 195 55 195 64 172 28948 27453 74 209 68 200 67 192 54 194 61 171 27453 25903 68 209 63 199 61 190 56 186 56 170 25903 24302 58 209 60 194 54 185 54 181 50 167 24302 22652 51 207 55 188 53 179 47 179 44 167 22652 20950 47 205 48 185 53 174 40 174 39 170 20950 19190 42 200 42 181 49 168 35 172 32 175 19190 17407 36 188 39 176 43 161 31 164 26 172 17407 15691 33 175 38 166 37 152 30 151 25 169 15691 14129 31 162 33 154 32 146 29 143 23 170 14129 12736 26 149 28 148 29 144 27 141 20 169 12736 11489 23 145 26 147 28 145 24 139 17 165 11489 10372 22 145 25 149 27 145 20 137 15 156 10372 9370 23 149 27 151 24 143 16 132 16 148 9370 8474 24 151 28 150 22*140 13 124 17 141 8474 7676 26 148 27 145 20*139 11 113 16 127 7676 6963 27 141 25*137 17 140 10 100 15 107 6963 6318 27 131 22*127 15 142 10 088 15 086 6318 5742 25 117 19 117 13 145 11 076 17*073 5742 5257 22 104 17 110 11 149 11 066 18*063 5257 4882 18 088 14 106 10 151 11 056 17 058 4882 4622 14 067 12 105 9 153 11 045 16 055 4622 4463 10*053 10 105 8 153 9*037 14 054 4463 4372 6*038 8 105 7 155 6*031 9 052 4372 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography