DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 11/30 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1002z - - 1334z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 41.9 - - 50.5 - - 56.2 - - 51.5 - - 44.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -6 - - 44 - - 71 - - -19 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 983 - - 3466 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4355 - - 4356 - - 6393 - - 4356 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4373 - - 5811 - - 8294 - - 4374 - - 4373 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1666 - - 1561 - - 2001 - - 4430 - - 3172 Hgt.Variab. W* 3 - - 160 - - 274 - - 10 - - 3 W* B/S 0 - - 4 - - 4 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 8 - - 14 - - 8 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 077 - - 163 - - 202 - - 174 - - 097 Direction Wind Shear 1 - - 8 - - 8 - - 5 - - 1 Wind Shear Max.Converg -6 - - 14 - - 29 - - 24 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1786 - - -1517 - - -280 - - -3086 - - -1144 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6160 - - 7329 - - 8574 - - 7460 - - 5518 sfcLCL ODpotential -9376 - - -8594 - - -5087 - - -7091 - - -5148 ODpotential blCL 13749 - - 14405 - - 13381 - - 11465 - - 9521 blCL maxRH 52 - - 50 - - 53 - - 75 - - 64 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 41.9 - - 50.5 - - 56.2 - - 51.5 - - 44.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 30.4 - - 33.7 - - 33.8 - - 34.1 - - 36.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 48.6 - - 51.3 - - 56.9 - - 54.5 - - 50.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 29.4 - - 32.6 - - 32.6 - - 33.4 - - 35.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -6 - - 44 - - 71 - - -19 - - -3 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 983 - - 3466 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 5 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96681 44 086 41 087 48 086 30 088 21 074 96681 89477 34 089 36 080 42 087 38 091 34 071 89477 83889 27 084 26 067 33 081 37 088 33 086 83889 79227 17 057 19 069 18 071 31 077 31 086 79227 75199 10 029 16 062 11 069 19 055 30 069 75199 71643 9 004 2 086 9 006 19 042 18 054 71643 68425 8 348 5 164 9 306 17 018 20 057 68425 65480 17 295 6 285 13 270 9 342 8 339 65480 62747 13 280 11 317 14 259 19 275 5 021 62747 60082 17 293 20 303 22 264 33 278 25 288 60082 57312 37 289 34 288 29 275 39 283 37 281 57312 54437 52 288 43 281 38 283 45 284 44 277 54437 51681 60 284 50 279 49 283 52 282 48 278 51681 49209 63 278 56 279 57 277 56 278 52 277 49209 47000 68 273 61 277 60 272 58 274 53 274 47000 44993 79 272 70 275 67 270 62 273 54 280 44993 43156 88 267 84 271 73 271 68 272 63 281 43156 41468 93 264 93 266 73 272 71 267 66 275 41468 39897 95 263 94 262 73 273 61 268 62 276 39897 38430 92 263 87 260 78 274 60 283 61 281 38430 37070 83 262 66 264 74 266 69 283 73 287 37070 35782 71 267 45 273 54 258 71 270 84 283 35782 34491 63 272 39 288 43 273 64 264 81 272 34491 33166 51 272 41 296 43 281 60 270 78 270 33166 31812 41 279 45 295 45 289 63 282 75 275 31812 30411 38 287 47 295 47 295 63 284 75 278 30411 28954 38 292 47 296 46 297 59 281 72 281 28954 27444 38 295 49 297 43 294 58 280 67 282 27444 25886 38 294 48 295 45 288 57 281 63 285 25886 24280 37 291 45 289 51 290 55 284 61 290 24280 22627 39 289 45 284 54 291 55 284 59 291 22627 20921 40 290 48 284 53 285 54 278 56 286 20921 19158 40 293 50 284 54 278 53 273 54 279 19158 17372 39 295 48 282 54 274 50 274 51 272 17372 15657 37 295 44 280 51 272 46 275 49 271 15657 14097 34 293 40 277 46 269 42 275 43 274 14097 12709 31 287 36 273 40 267 37 274 35 276 12709 11471 28 277 32 267 33 262 32 272 27 279 11471 10363 25 266 29 259 26 253 27 267 23 281 10363 9369 22 254 25 250 21 243 22 259 22 280 9369 8477 19 242 22 240 18*231 17 253 21 275 8477 7681 15 228 19 228 16*218 15 246 18 270 7681 6969 12 213 16 213 15 208 13 236 14 266 6969 6324 11 195 14*198 14 203 13 225 11 267 6324 5747 9 179 12*183 14 199 12 214 8 272 5747 5260 7 162 10 168 13 196 12 202 4 277 5260 4884 6 134 7 152 13 194 11 191 2 255 4884 4623 5 110 7 148 12 192 10 181 1 126 4623 4464 4*085 6 148 11 191 8*172 2*109 4464 4372 4*072 5 147 9 191 5*164 2*090 4372 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography