DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 01/21 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1000z - - 1336z - - 1603z - - 1902z - - 2200z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 36.6 - - 48.3 - - 49.6 - - 46.2 - - 37.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -15 - - 201 - - 338 - - 36 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 4448 - - 6639 - - 7923 - - 2 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 7684 - - 9634 - - 8426 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4373 - - 9276 - - 11467 - - 12751 - - 4830 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 707 - - 1774 - - 1236 - - 2537 - - 3898 Hgt.Variab. W* 7 - - 402 - - 546 - - 275 - - 4 W* B/S 0 - - 4 - - 5 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 18 - - 22 - - 22 - - 9 BL Wind Direction 154 - - 267 - - 289 - - 308 - - 308 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 20 - - 22 - - 13 - - 8 Wind Shear Max.Converg 8 - - 24 - - 42 - - -15 - - -10 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1779 - - 1104 - - -296 - - 630 - - -1976 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6153 - - 8173 - - 11763 - - 12122 - - 6806 sfcLCL ODpotential -8381 - - -346 - - -6631 - - -1085 - - -4263 ODpotential blCL 12754 - - 9622 - - 18098 - - 13836 - - 9093 blCL maxRH 77 - - 86 - - 52 - - 55 - - 78 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 36.6 - - 48.3 - - 49.6 - - 46.2 - - 37.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 25.2 - - 27.7 - - 12.9 - - 8.0 - - 22.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 42.1 - - 48.2 - - 48.8 - - 47.2 - - 39.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 25.1 - - 27.4 - - 12.8 - - 7.9 - - 22.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -15 - - 201 - - 338 - - 36 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 4448 - - 6639 - - 7923 - - 2 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 10 - - 45 - - 0 - - 0 - - 11 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 1 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95685 33 288 28 286 35 272 34 270 42 290 95685 88334 31 282 25 279 28 264 33 272 27 294 88334 82841 24 283 17 285 19 252 23 281 22 292 82841 78361 22 290 12 288 15 275 23 306 21 296 78361 74541 14 301 18 294 20 280 25 309 17 320 74541 71159 14 346 16 301 12 267 19 304 16 328 71159 68074 27 303 8 342 9 289 17 303 17 316 68074 65217 34 265 21 285 9 291 15 287 20 323 65217 62539 27 238 31 247 12 323 16 288 25 320 62539 59912 20 230 31 229 26 285 22 329 29 307 59912 57146 27 262 37 252 45 250 21 294 29 287 57146 54243 46 273 41 270 44 256 29 279 27 275 54243 51430 62 270 42 279 39 268 33 279 35 293 51430 48878 77 264 55 279 53 281 52 287 58 290 48878 46598 87 261 74 273 82 280 74 281 69 283 46598 44534 97 262 91 265 103 270 84 271 72 280 44534 42643 110 263 106 263 101 260 84 266 75 280 42643 40902 128 262 115 264 91 257 85 268 79 279 40902 39289 142 261 117 265 90 267 90 270 83 275 39289 37789 147 261 122 264 105 271 97 267 82 270 37789 36389 147 260 131 263 127 268 106 264 78 268 36389 35053 142 257 137 259 143 261 117 262 76 269 35053 33720 137 250 140 252 144 253 122 260 76 270 33720 32365 133 247 135 247 141 247 122 258 78 270 32365 30991 118 247 125 249 137 246 119 257 77 268 30991 29584 105 253 120 254 132 249 115 257 74 266 29584 28135 106 262 116 258 124 255 111 256 70 265 28135 26641 107 265 112 260 114 259 104 254 63 269 26641 25113 104 263 108 258 107 257 96 253 51 279 25113 23557 100 261 104 256 101 255 89 255 37 292 23557 21973 97 259 102 254 98 254 79 259 25 318 21973 20343 92 256 100 254 95 256 67 262 24 330 20343 18657 88 254 97 255 91 257 57 267 25 325 18657 16946 82 253 92 256 84 259 49 272 25 320 16946 15302 76 253 84 258 71 264 39 278 23 320 15302 13804 68 252 71 259 55 269 29*289 22 326 13804 12466 61 252 56 259 43*271 25*301 20 333 12466 11268 53 253 43 257 34*275 24 308 21 340 11268 10192 45 256 36 258 26 282 24 309 23 344 10192 9227 38 260 33*263 22 289 23 309 26 345 9227 8361 31 261 30*268 21 293 23 310 26 342 8361 7589 25 258 24 269 20 294 22 309 25 338 7589 6897 20 248 19 268 20 295 22 309 24 333 6897 6271 16 228 17 267 20 295 21 309 23 329 6271 5710 17 200 15 266 19 296 20 308 21 324 5710 5237 19 185 14 265 18 296 20 308 19 319 5237 4870 19 177 13 265 18 296 19 307 16*315 4870 4616 16 170 12 264 17 296 17 307 13*310 4616 4461 11*166 11 264 16 296 15 307 10 308 4461 4372 5*154 10 263 13 294 12 306 5 302 4372 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography