DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/19 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 66.0 - - 75.0 - - 73.2 - - 62.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 61 - - 207 - - -15 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1048 - - 4199 - - 3980 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4357 - - 7520 - - 4358 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5876 - - 9027 - - 8808 - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1519 - - 1377 - - 1891 - - 3224 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 181 - - 401 - - 81 - - 0 W* B/S - - - 9 - - 9 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 4 - - 8 - - 10 - - 3 BL Wind Direction - - - 138 - - 186 - - 195 - - 137 Direction Wind Shear - - - 7 - - 7 - - 7 - - 2 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -3 - - 15 - - 24 - - 5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -4721 - - -4774 - - -4901 - - -6352 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 10598 - - 13802 - - 13709 - - 10728 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -14575 - - -11929 - - -12574 - - -15469 ODpotential blCL - - - 20451 - - 20956 - - 21382 - - 19844 blCL maxRH - - - 80 - - 49 - - 42 - - 49 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 66.0 - - 75.0 - - 73.2 - - 62.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 35.1 - - 29.8 - - 28.6 - - 31.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 66.5 - - 74.5 - - 75.2 - - 69.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 33.8 - - 28.9 - - 27.6 - - 31.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 61 - - 207 - - -15 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1048 - - 4199 - - 3980 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 20 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 4 - - 4 - - 3 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97718 38 261 38 250 45 267 34 272 97718 90443 21 253 26 258 24 246 21 292 90443 84765 17 246 22 257 13 257 14 287 84765 80003 13 237 17 266 12 289 11 243 80003 75909 7 206 10 262 14 284 10 279 75909 72320 2 294 5 202 12 259 14 311 72320 69095 6 277 2 228 10 237 17 302 69095 66151 11 249 7 288 5 272 11 289 66151 63438 15 263 15 260 13 289 15 266 63438 60832 16 276 18 264 21 282 19 255 60832 58145 20 273 25 268 24 278 26 260 58145 55377 28 258 31 266 29 277 28 275 55377 52732 36 260 40 264 41 265 41 269 52732 50349 45 259 51 258 55 252 58 251 50349 48224 53 256 58 255 61 251 62 250 48224 46294 56 257 59 258 64 259 61 256 46294 44514 51 263 60 263 62 266 60 261 44514 42857 57 270 60 266 62 267 60 262 42857 41309 60 272 60 269 62 266 61 261 41309 39856 62 272 61 271 63 265 59 262 39856 38488 59 272 61 270 63 264 58 263 38488 37171 54 273 58 269 59 263 54 262 37171 35840 53 271 55 268 55 262 49 262 35840 34468 51 269 52 268 52 263 45 261 34468 33060 48 269 48 267 50 264 43 261 33060 31603 45 266 47 264 46 265 41 261 31603 30087 40 262 44 261 44 265 39 261 30087 28513 36 258 41 257 41 263 37 261 28513 26881 35 256 39 255 39 259 35 263 26881 25196 34 257 38 258 38 258 34 264 25196 23461 31 261 36 264 36 263 35 265 23461 21675 28 261 32 266 33 270 35 269 21675 19830 26 255 30 262 30 271 33 271 19830 17960 24 251 28 258 29 266 32 269 17960 16162 21 248 27 257 29 263 32 263 16162 14528 18 243 23 254 27 262 30 261 14528 13072 15 236 19 249 24 261 28 263 13072 11773 14 227 16 241 19 255 23 265 11773 10609 13 216 14 230 14 246 17 259 10609 9569 13 205 12*216 11*236 9 232 9569 8640 13 196 11*203 10*223 8 214 8640 7811 13 188 10 196 10 207 8 213 7811 7071 13 182 9 190 10 199 8 216 7071 6400 11*178 8 183 11 193 9 223 6400 5800 8*172 8 179 11 189 9 228 5800 5295 4 141 7 175 11 185 8 227 5295 4904 3 114 7 174 11 183 6 218 4904 4633 3 108 7 173 10 181 4 189 4633 4468 3 105 6 172 9 179 3*159 4468 4374 2 109 6 173 7 178 3*122 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography