DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 09/21 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1007z - - 1337z - - 1608z - - 1904z - - 2205z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 65.0 - - 73.9 - - 79.9 - - 81.4 - - 67.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 31 - - 371 - - 395 - - 97 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 451 - - 5596 - - 9287 - - 10470 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4357 - - 8848 - - 11845 - - 11706 - - 4358 Hcrit BL Top 5279 - - 10424 - - 14115 - - 15298 - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2252 - - 2015 - - 1364 - - 1568 - - 3523 Hgt.Variab. W* 101 - - 532 - - 644 - - 421 - - 7 W* B/S 4 - - 16 - - 16 - - 7 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 6 - - 7 - - 10 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 081 - - 229 - - 237 - - 259 - - 190 Direction Wind Shear 2 - - 12 - - 19 - - 0 - - 1 Wind Shear Max.Converg -6 - - -11 - - 12 - - 76 - - 9 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -6563 - - -3324 - - -1698 - - -2586 - - -10737 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 11842 - - 13749 - - 15814 - - 17885 - - 15112 sfcLCL ODpotential -13100 - - -7846 - - -5742 - - -6515 - - -18663 ODpotential blCL 18379 - - 18270 - - 19857 - - 21813 - - 23038 blCL maxRH 35 - - 34 - - 46 - - 42 - - 32 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 65.0 - - 73.9 - - 79.9 - - 81.4 - - 67.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 28.6 - - 28.6 - - 25.1 - - 16.9 - - 16.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 65.9 - - 73.7 - - 79.2 - - 81.6 - - 73.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 28.5 - - 28.4 - - 24.8 - - 16.4 - - 16.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 31 - - 371 - - 395 - - 97 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 451 - - 5596 - - 9287 - - 10470 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98037 17 091 15 075 11 108 8 096 12 071 98037 90759 13 078 15 087 11 103 14 081 7 094 90759 85109 14 101 18 091 15 130 10 077 11 098 85109 80397 17 102 14 099 19 108 13 103 15 107 80397 76325 17 097 12 125 15 101 16 118 15 095 76325 72739 11 096 11 111 6 107 10 112 11 066 72739 69510 7 095 6 105 8 109 9 128 4 077 69510 66557 8 134 8 123 5 066 5 129 5 141 66557 63831 7 263 3 301 4 343 2 010 3 217 63831 61194 13 249 17 259 14 266 13 308 9 273 61194 58451 15 246 20 246 20 255 25 264 18 274 58451 55599 24 264 28 258 31 264 29 257 32 267 55599 52874 40 265 41 267 44 273 44 274 42 265 52874 50438 54 260 58 262 64 262 66 269 52 267 50438 48266 62 254 69 254 79 252 84 258 65 262 48266 46293 65 252 73 250 82 247 93 250 74 257 46293 44471 66 253 74 251 81 247 87 247 75 254 44471 42772 68 254 74 252 82 248 81 249 73 253 42772 41178 71 254 75 254 82 250 81 253 70 256 41178 39680 72 255 75 255 81 253 80 256 67 262 39680 38276 72 255 75 256 82 255 78 258 67 268 38276 36933 73 257 74 256 81 258 76 262 67 273 36933 35588 71 257 71 255 78 259 72 265 56 274 35588 34206 69 257 68 256 69 259 57 269 40 280 34206 32789 66 256 69 257 64 264 49 280 42 300 32789 31327 62 253 70 257 67 267 57 284 56 299 31327 29815 58 252 68 254 68 262 65 277 62 291 29815 28250 55 253 64 253 63 256 67 272 55 293 28250 26631 52 254 60 254 56 258 56 271 42 309 26631 24962 50 254 55 253 53 261 48 270 36 322 24962 23247 48 253 52 249 51 261 48 270 38 324 23247 21485 46 252 49 247 49 259 47 269 38 318 21485 19668 44 250 45 250 46 259 42 270 34 316 19668 17830 40 250 39 254 39 264 32 271 29 314 17830 16066 35 252 32 260 31 265 19*268 24 298 16066 14467 29 253 25 264 24*259 10*257 9 281 14467 13044 24 251 19 266 19*254 9 255 2 312 13044 11768 20 243 15 262 16 252 9 255 5 325 11768 10619 18 236 14*251 12 248 10 256 8 312 10619 9585 17 232 13*248 8 241 10 259 10 303 9585 8657 15 230 11 245 6 230 11 261 12 295 8657 7827 13 227 8 240 5 217 11 261 13 287 7827 7084 9 218 5 223 4 204 12 262 15 280 7084 6410 5 194 4 205 4 190 12 261 15 273 6410 5808 3 161 4 195 4 178 12 261 15 267 5808 5300 3*120 4 188 4 168 12 261 13 259 5300 4907 4*095 4 183 4 162 12 261 9 247 4907 4635 5 079 4 179 4 160 11 261 6 227 4635 4469 3 072 4 181 4 158 11 260 3*198 4469 4374 3 072 4 180 4 159 9 259 3*185 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography