DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 01/18 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1002z - - 1337z - - 1602z - - 1902z - - 2202z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 41.5 - - 50.2 - - 50.7 - - 48.0 - - 44.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -5 - - 83 - - 139 - - -1 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1659 - - 2538 - - 1247 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4356 - - 6118 - - 4356 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4373 - - 6487 - - 7366 - - 6075 - - 4373 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2048 - - 2587 - - 2315 - - 3193 - - 3206 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 216 - - 298 - - 51 - - 9 W* B/S 0 - - 14 - - 18 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 051 - - 161 - - 207 - - 154 - - 064 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 5 - - 8 - - 2 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -8 - - 15 - - 7 - - 5 - - -7 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3605 - - -2875 - - 758 - - 927 - - 1 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7978 - - 9363 - - 6609 - - 5148 - - 4372 sfcLCL ODpotential -8091 - - -5760 - - -951 - - -1174 - - -1971 ODpotential blCL 12464 - - 12247 - - 8317 - - 7249 - - 6344 blCL maxRH 101 - - 99 - - 92 - - 97 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 50 - - 30 - - 10 - - 110 - - 20 CAPE Temp@2m 41.5 - - 50.2 - - 50.7 - - 48.0 - - 44.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 22.3 - - 24.5 - - 36.9 - - 40.5 - - 41.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 47.2 - - 50.5 - - 50.7 - - 49.2 - - 46.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 22.0 - - 24.2 - - 36.2 - - 39.6 - - 40.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -5 - - 83 - - 139 - - -1 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1659 - - 2538 - - 1247 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 103 - - 98 - - 66 - - 89 - - 99 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 5 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96363 22 310 9 006 8 084 16 198 20 286 96363 89213 5 295 7 323 2 062 6 031 3 329 89213 83661 4 040 4 316 6 322 14 351 9 053 83661 79029 6 357 4 336 12 302 14 315 10 003 79029 75038 11 342 9 006 10 311 12 282 13 333 75038 71520 16 307 15 319 12 322 9 272 15 318 71520 68342 16 299 15 301 16 322 12 298 18 293 68342 65424 17 291 19 294 20 308 17 297 20 286 65424 62707 22 295 20 282 23 291 23 289 20 285 62707 60060 25 287 22 285 28 288 27 279 26 287 60060 57292 28 280 26 286 31 289 27 277 32 284 57292 54418 33 278 33 285 35 286 30 290 34 275 54418 51666 38 277 41 284 39 283 36 290 35 269 51666 49175 41 274 44 280 39 279 37 285 36 273 49175 46932 41 274 42 273 38 271 38 279 40 279 46932 44897 40 277 38 271 37 266 42 278 43 281 44897 43038 40 268 39 272 40 273 43 280 43 279 43038 41324 40 267 43 267 44 274 45 279 42 284 41324 39737 42 268 42 253 44 268 46 272 43 291 39737 38265 46 263 40 251 42 263 41 274 48 288 38265 36894 47 252 47 256 42 265 42 288 45 287 36894 35587 45 248 56 255 46 270 43 293 44 294 35587 34276 44 250 62 253 48 267 42 291 44 298 34276 32937 46 253 65 252 44 264 37 296 44 299 32937 31573 49 253 64 252 37 267 30 305 39 302 31573 30175 52 253 61 251 31 275 28 321 32 309 30175 28732 54 252 55 252 23 278 31 327 29 317 28732 27242 56 251 51 255 20 296 31 328 29 327 27242 25703 53 250 45 258 27 295 31 329 30 332 25703 24117 46 249 39 263 28 292 31 326 30 334 24117 22485 39 251 34 262 25 287 28 322 29 336 22485 20801 36 252 31 257 21 289 24 318 25 339 20801 19059 33 252 27 260 19 296 20 313 19 337 19059 17290 27 254 24 270 17 292 18 303 18 332 17290 15589 22 259 23 275 14 288 17 295 18 333 15589 14041 20 262 22 275 15 287 15 293 17 331 14041 12663 19 265 18 276 16 280 15 295 15 326 12663 11433 19 265 16 271 15 272 15 296 14 312 11433 10330 19 265 17 264 16 266 14 295 16 301 10330 9339 18 265 18 259 17 263 11 288 16 301 9339 8450 16 263 16 255 16 262 9 278 15 306 8450 7658 14 262 12 249 12*259 7 266 14 314 7658 6950 10 256 8*236 8*252 6 251 11 319 6950 6309 5 233 5*211 4 232 4*221 8 324 6309 5736 3 181 4 172 3 176 4*182 4 335 5736 5253 3 140 3 145 3 175 4 155 2 017 5253 4879 3 093 3 129 3 175 4 149 2 054 4879 4620 3 067 2 129 3 173 4 146 3 065 4620 4463 4*055 2 133 3 172 4 144 4*064 4463 4372 4*049 2 134 3 174 3 143 3*063 4372 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography