DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 03/28 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0956z - - 1328z - - 1555z - - 1855z - - 2152z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 48.2 - - 58.3 - - 68.0 - - 67.9 - - 55.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -3 - - 339 - - 410 - - 123 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 3238 - - 7376 - - 8185 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 6981 - - 10319 - - 10205 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4373 - - 8066 - - 12204 - - 13013 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2207 - - 1337 - - 1429 - - 1684 - - 4871 Hgt.Variab. W* 14 - - 432 - - 605 - - 421 - - 0 W* B/S 1 - - 13 - - 9 - - 5 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 6 - - 12 - - 16 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 058 - - 178 - - 222 - - 234 - - 178 Direction Wind Shear 1 - - 8 - - 16 - - 10 - - 4 Wind Shear Max.Converg -9 - - 12 - - 36 - - 80 - - 22 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3016 - - -2044 - - -1890 - - -1753 - - -6132 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7389 - - 10111 - - 14095 - - 14767 - - 10507 sfcLCL ODpotential -10297 - - -7469 - - -5998 - - -5455 - - -10981 ODpotential blCL 14670 - - 15535 - - 18202 - - 18468 - - 15355 blCL maxRH 54 - - 49 - - 40 - - 50 - - 46 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 48.2 - - 58.3 - - 68.0 - - 67.9 - - 55.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 31.3 - - 29.2 - - 20.9 - - 17.7 - - 25.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 49.7 - - 57.3 - - 66.6 - - 68.1 - - 59.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 30.2 - - 28.5 - - 20.1 - - 17.1 - - 24.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -3 - - 339 - - 410 - - 123 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 3238 - - 7376 - - 8185 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 2 - - 2 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97151 17 275 18 284 21 311 18 316 23 299 97151 89909 29 274 24 257 30 263 25 274 32 290 89909 84315 26 287 28 260 35 245 43 250 43 270 84315 79624 34 277 25 262 27 256 33 250 30 259 79624 75529 39 263 28 254 23 252 20 253 19 262 75529 71862 33 256 30 262 30 245 27 256 21 279 71862 68527 28 255 30 273 36 252 38 257 36 268 68527 65492 35 257 37 259 36 260 42 257 45 251 65492 62724 53 256 49 256 45 268 50 264 46 249 62724 60064 63 258 61 258 60 262 59 263 48 261 60064 57286 65 264 63 260 65 258 61 261 59 268 57286 54404 69 270 67 266 67 262 66 265 73 267 54404 51657 74 273 72 269 75 267 76 269 81 267 51657 49187 79 276 81 274 85 272 83 271 88 267 49187 46975 89 275 93 274 97 273 93 272 92 267 46975 44971 93 272 98 271 105 273 102 271 99 266 44971 43154 95 273 99 271 107 271 105 269 108 264 43154 41505 102 277 104 273 106 269 107 266 113 263 41505 39985 108 278 107 274 106 269 107 264 111 262 39985 38561 105 277 107 272 107 269 105 263 108 263 38561 37220 99 275 106 271 103 269 103 264 107 261 37220 35930 95 272 101 270 97 271 96 265 102 259 35930 34633 89 270 92 270 91 271 90 267 93 259 34633 33300 82 268 84 270 85 269 84 265 87 261 33300 31937 76 268 78 267 81 268 78 264 83 261 31937 30529 72 267 76 266 78 267 74 263 78 261 30529 29068 69 268 75 267 75 266 72 263 74 260 29068 27554 64 268 72 266 71 265 71 262 70 259 27554 25989 59 266 69 262 68 263 68 260 68 257 25989 24374 55 263 66 259 67 260 66 259 67 256 24374 22714 53 261 63 255 65 259 64 259 67 255 22714 21004 50 259 60 255 63 258 61 260 64 256 21004 19240 47 259 56 255 59 260 55 262 58 256 19240 17455 44 258 50 257 54 261 47 265 49 256 17455 15740 41 259 44 259 47 264 38 268 41 255 15740 14181 37 258 38 261 38 267 27*267 32 255 14181 12791 33 258 33 260 26*263 18*256 25 252 12791 11547 30 256 29 258 18*250 16 243 19 244 11547 10431 26 249 25 256 16 245 16 241 17 235 10431 9427 22 240 21 251 14 238 16 236 16 230 9427 8527 19 233 15*241 13 228 17 232 17 228 8527 7723 14 227 9*224 12 217 17 229 18 225 7723 7004 10 216 7 201 12 208 17 227 19 223 7004 6351 7 196 6 168 11 201 17 225 19 220 6351 5767 5 163 6 162 11 196 17 224 19 217 5767 5274 4 118 6 160 11 191 17 223 17 212 5274 4892 5 090 6 158 11 189 16 223 15 204 4892 4627 5 075 6 158 11 187 16 222 12 193 4627 4466 5*061 6 158 10 187 15 222 10*181 4466 4373 4*056 5 159 9 186 12 221 5*174 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography