DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 11/20 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1001z - - 1333z - - 1604z - - 1903z - - 2201z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 45.0 - - 58.0 - - 64.2 - - 59.8 - - 50.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -50 - - 133 - - 197 - - 2 - - -55 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1907 - - 4317 - - 2649 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 5624 - - 7574 - - 4357 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 6735 - - 9145 - - 7477 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 403 - - 2013 - - 2932 - - 4673 - - 307 Hgt.Variab. W* 7 - - 263 - - 395 - - 72 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 15 - - 15 - - 4 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 8 - - 3 - - 5 - - 3 - - 8 BL Wind Direction 045 - - 159 - - 174 - - 197 - - 044 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 7 - - 4 - - 6 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -19 - - 6 - - -10 - - -5 - - -21 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -8520 - - -8209 - - -5841 - - -5956 - - -7189 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 12894 - - 14945 - - 14987 - - 13433 - - 11563 sfcLCL ODpotential -16968 - - -13451 - - -9624 - - -10086 - - -13232 ODpotential blCL 21342 - - 20186 - - 18769 - - 17563 - - 17606 blCL maxRH 85 - - 85 - - 85 - - 84 - - 56 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 45.0 - - 58.0 - - 64.2 - - 59.8 - - 50.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 4.8 - - 7.9 - - 13.5 - - 16.3 - - 15.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 48.5 - - 58.8 - - 64.5 - - 64.1 - - 53.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 4.5 - - 7.8 - - 13.2 - - 15.7 - - 15.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -50 - - 133 - - 197 - - 2 - - -55 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 1907 - - 4317 - - 2649 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 41 - - 40 - - 40 - - 38 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 1 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96284 54 278 47 283 53 275 54 272 57 280 96284 89128 30 280 27 288 30 279 31 284 28 289 89128 83651 22 293 20 304 19 297 18 296 20 303 83651 79094 17 305 16 305 16 308 15 313 15 314 79094 75156 15 315 13 299 14 298 17 317 12 319 75156 71664 15 316 12 301 14 286 18 310 11 317 71664 68497 16 308 14 300 16 288 17 300 14 301 68497 65583 19 299 19 294 18 298 16 297 16 292 65583 62875 23 290 23 287 23 298 19 303 20 293 62875 60245 25 289 25 287 26 291 27 300 25 298 60245 57495 27 293 27 294 28 287 32 293 31 298 57495 54633 29 293 29 298 28 285 34 287 36 294 54633 51894 29 290 31 295 29 290 35 284 37 294 51894 49424 30 281 32 288 31 297 34 284 39 298 49424 47208 29 274 32 279 33 296 32 291 42 298 47208 45197 26 272 30 265 35 287 34 299 41 295 45197 43349 27 273 26 258 35 277 36 298 39 301 43349 41639 31 260 25 262 30 269 37 291 42 306 41639 40049 29 247 24 262 25 271 34 279 44 309 40049 38568 26 238 23 255 21 265 25 273 43 309 38568 37192 23 231 20 232 16 252 15 273 37 301 37192 35887 14 202 15 185 16 191 12 277 22 293 35887 34597 15 184 15 136 20 117 12 228 7 297 34597 33289 19 192 14 132 18 114 12 152 4 111 33289 31951 21 203 13 140 20 123 16 124 5 114 31951 30565 18 214 13 161 23 133 17 121 3 132 30565 29121 15 223 13 183 17 146 13 139 3 154 29121 27621 15 228 13 197 8 161 11 156 4 161 27621 26066 15 230 13 214 5 192 9 172 5 177 26066 24460 15 228 16 230 12 207 10 197 8 204 24460 22805 12 219 23 231 17 207 11 209 10 215 22805 21097 7 184 26 223 19 212 10 224 8 229 21097 19330 9 155 25 212 16 215 7 236 5 264 19330 17538 14 160 18 181 12 202 5 211 3 300 17538 15815 14 150 14 143 10 158 3 151 1 075 15815 14246 11 158 8 155 7 148 4 133 3 143 14246 12843 9 183 4 221 2 180 4 158 6 154 12843 11589 9 203 5 241 3 221 5 171 6 155 11589 10462 10 201 5 220 4 205 6 165 6 161 10462 9449 10 192 7 187 6*180 7 163 6 167 9449 8541 10 180 9 167 7*169 7 164 6 175 8541 7731 9 167 10 155 7 165 7*170 4 181 7731 7006 9 156 10*151 6 166 6*176 3 176 7006 6350 6 147 8*150 4 173 5 183 4 143 6350 5764 5 137 5 149 4 181 3 199 7 121 5764 5270 7 114 2 164 3 187 2 215 9 101 5270 4888 10 086 2 184 3 192 2 229 12 079 4888 4625 12 062 2 196 3 193 2 242 13 059 4625 4465 11*052 2 202 3 195 2 248 12*050 4465 4373 8*045 2 206 3 196 1 257 8*044 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography