DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 09/29 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0956z - - 1328z - - 1556z - - 1856z - - 2155z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 70.1 - - 78.2 - - 84.5 - - 83.4 - - 72.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -2 - - 265 - - 309 - - 36 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 3072 - - 9387 - - 8225 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4357 - - 6774 - - 11792 - - 8794 - - 4358 Hcrit BL Top 4375 - - 7900 - - 14215 - - 13053 - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 3267 - - 4915 - - 2487 - - 4108 - - 6844 Hgt.Variab. W* 11 - - 392 - - 597 - - 286 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 18 - - 33 - - 11 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 4 - - 3 - - 5 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 063 - - 173 - - 158 - - 190 - - 142 Direction Wind Shear 3 - - 3 - - 12 - - 11 - - 2 Wind Shear Max.Converg -11 - - 11 - - -22 - - 20 - - 8 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -7975 - - -5262 - - -645 - - -2412 - - -7788 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 12351 - - 13162 - - 14861 - - 15465 - - 12163 sfcLCL ODpotential -13312 - - -9101 - - -2847 - - -4700 - - -11855 ODpotential blCL 17687 - - 17001 - - 17062 - - 17753 - - 16230 blCL maxRH 86 - - 75 - - 65 - - 77 - - 66 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 70.1 - - 78.2 - - 84.5 - - 83.4 - - 72.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 31.7 - - 35.7 - - 34.1 - - 30.5 - - 34.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 72.0 - - 77.5 - - 83.4 - - 84.1 - - 77.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 31.0 - - 35.0 - - 33.3 - - 29.7 - - 33.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -2 - - 265 - - 309 - - 36 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 3072 - - 9387 - - 8225 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 46 - - 1 - - 0 - - 8 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98141 12 070 18 085 14 112 9 104 11 060 98141 90771 12 072 14 087 11 087 12 098 13 074 90771 85078 14 084 11 107 8 079 10 070 16 074 85078 80327 9 103 6 123 5 100 4 083 12 071 80327 76226 4 139 1 019 4 089 4 103 5 072 76226 72620 3 115 1 297 5 005 5 083 7 107 72620 69375 4 072 2 105 4 321 5 007 8 061 69375 66415 5 095 2 063 1 290 5 339 8 027 66415 63700 7 089 2 130 1 055 2 003 5 348 63700 61089 6 052 7 139 2 161 2 171 3 226 61089 58361 2 006 7 136 2 224 4 210 1 339 58361 55529 3 261 5 209 7 247 10 245 6 285 55529 52836 10 274 8 250 9 242 13 241 8 270 52836 50411 17 264 15 254 15 256 15 255 11 271 50411 48228 21 262 17 255 18 252 18 263 15 278 48228 46240 22 260 18 265 16 254 17 270 18 282 46240 44413 20 260 19 268 20 265 19 276 18 284 44413 42722 15 249 17 249 22 263 21 268 20 280 42722 41150 12 256 15 234 19 259 20 258 21 275 41150 39684 15 275 12 252 14 257 16 252 15 261 39684 38315 22 266 13 268 11 268 13 254 7 280 38315 37003 28 256 18 259 10 286 10 269 10 015 37003 35681 29 248 24 247 10 288 11 277 12 352 35681 34318 26 244 23 246 10 268 12 287 11 342 34318 32919 18 259 14 247 13 258 10 308 11 337 32919 31471 12 278 10 226 15 254 10 342 12 342 31471 29964 12 269 10 256 13 269 12 354 10 342 29964 28403 12 259 10 292 9 298 12 350 10 335 28403 26788 6 318 8 323 8 337 12 357 13 338 26788 25121 8 355 6 002 8 359 12 004 15 345 25121 23404 8 005 6 028 5 001 8 007 12 001 23404 21634 6 008 7 028 5 016 5 007 6 026 21634 19805 3 215 5 359 5 011 4 029 1 061 19805 17955 2 119 2 036 3 033 5 071 3 149 17955 16185 4 046 3 055 4 066 10 063 6 084 16185 14574 6 105 1 090 7*080 10 061 10 062 14574 13133 10 124 5 129 7*089 9*062 7 067 13133 11841 10 122 9 123 6 096 5*068 3 085 11841 10680 6 125 9 120 5 103 2 107 2 179 10680 9635 5 154 7 117 4 127 3 190 5 188 9635 8698 6 182 5*122 3 163 4 196 7 190 8698 7860 9 182 4*147 4 187 7 199 9 193 7860 7111 10 173 4 162 5 204 7 198 10 200 7111 6430 10 165 4 168 6 209 8 197 11 206 6430 5822 6 159 4 177 6 211 8 197 12 210 5822 5309 4 119 4 183 6 213 8 196 11 210 5309 4913 6 093 4 190 7 214 8 196 8 204 4913 4638 7 071 4 193 6 214 8 196 5 180 4638 4470 6*060 4 195 6 215 8 196 4*159 4470 4374 4*057 4 196 6 215 7 197 3*131 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography