DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 09/17 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0700z - - 1003z - - 1602z - - 1901z - - 2159z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 77.6 - - 86.9 - - 92.5 - - 92.3 - - 80.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 42 - - 389 - - 419 - - 95 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 666 - - 6641 - - 10503 - - 11742 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4358 - - 9697 - - 12866 - - 12642 - - 4359 Hcrit BL Top 5494 - - 11469 - - 15331 - - 16570 - - 4376 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2679 - - 2975 - - 1566 - - 841 - - 7260 Hgt.Variab. W* 126 - - 571 - - 683 - - 433 - - 0 W* B/S 5 - - 18 - - 14 - - 7 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 6 - - 9 - - 11 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 041 - - 239 - - 224 - - 234 - - 312 Direction Wind Shear 2 - - 16 - - 14 - - 5 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -10 - - -16 - - 13 - - 79 - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4348 - - -1555 - - 862 - - 1950 - - -7960 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 9843 - - 13025 - - 14470 - - 14621 - - 12337 sfcLCL ODpotential -7951 - - -4355 - - -475 - - 794 - - -13432 ODpotential blCL 13445 - - 15824 - - 15806 - - 15776 - - 17808 blCL maxRH 50 - - 52 - - 66 - - 84 - - 61 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 10 - - 30 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 77.6 - - 86.9 - - 92.5 - - 92.3 - - 80.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 49.6 - - 44.7 - - 43.6 - - 42.9 - - 41.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 78.3 - - 86.6 - - 91.3 - - 92.5 - - 85.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 49.5 - - 44.6 - - 43.6 - - 42.8 - - 41.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 42 - - 389 - - 419 - - 95 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 666 - - 6641 - - 10503 - - 11742 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 37 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 9 - - 7 - - 7 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98281 11 057 11 115 11 127 11 108 11 108 98281 90883 14 082 16 099 13 123 10 106 13 085 90883 85191 16 088 15 094 13 112 8 111 13 079 85191 80495 14 100 16 090 14 111 9 093 12 073 80495 76467 12 094 13 096 14 103 10 092 12 074 76467 72911 11 105 12 105 13 099 10 096 12 074 72911 69694 13 112 13 121 11 103 7 095 10 081 69694 66753 12 107 12 128 9 126 6 139 7 091 66753 64048 8 100 12 141 8 146 7 145 4 123 64048 61445 8 147 10 161 10 178 7 193 6 227 61445 58742 10 198 11 182 15 196 14 204 17 228 58742 55957 17 233 16 227 16 217 17 209 22 217 55957 53315 24 226 27 234 24 237 21 233 22 219 53315 50941 27 236 34 230 33 239 33 239 29 234 50941 48812 38 246 38 232 42 243 40 239 38 239 48812 46871 43 243 41 237 47 246 43 242 41 241 46871 45076 43 242 42 239 47 247 42 243 40 243 45076 43399 40 242 40 238 44 246 41 245 39 248 43399 41821 40 247 38 243 42 247 40 247 39 252 41821 40333 40 250 37 248 40 249 38 249 38 252 40333 38931 39 251 36 250 34 248 35 248 35 246 38931 37583 36 252 33 250 31 252 31 245 33 237 37583 36223 34 255 33 250 30 258 29 251 30 236 36223 34823 34 259 33 252 30 264 29 260 27 248 34823 33388 34 263 34 257 30 266 30 267 28 267 33388 31906 32 265 33 261 29 265 28 271 28 276 31906 30367 30 266 30 261 25 261 24 267 24 269 30367 28772 28 261 27 257 22 251 20 252 21 253 28772 27121 26 256 25 250 21 235 20 234 21 239 27121 25416 24 258 24 251 21 228 21 231 22 239 25416 23665 20 260 22 258 20 231 21 232 21 245 23665 21863 16 264 19 258 18 235 18 227 17 248 21863 20007 10 256 15 247 15 232 16 223 14 240 20007 18133 8 211 14 219 14 225 13*223 13 234 18133 16338 17 202 18 211 16*232 6*226 11 231 16338 14707 24 204 20 212 16*238 6 229 8 202 14707 13252 25 213 19 222 15 239 8 230 9 173 13252 11947 24 225 19*234 13 237 11 232 10 187 11947 10771 22 234 17*241 10 231 12 234 10 206 10771 9713 19 237 13 247 8 224 13 235 9 235 9713 8763 13 237 8 251 7 216 13 236 11 257 8763 7914 7 236 3 244 7 208 14 236 13 269 7914 7154 2 239 2 225 6 200 14 236 15 274 7154 6464 1 317 2 216 6 194 14 237 17 276 6464 5847 1*352 2 205 6 187 14 236 18 278 5847 5326 2*039 2 201 6 183 14 236 17 279 5326 4923 5 043 2 196 6 181 13 236 14 281 4923 4643 6 043 3 194 6 179 13 236 10 285 4643 4473 4 038 3 195 6 179 12 235 7*292 4473 4375 4 037 3 193 5 179 11 234 4*312 4375 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography