DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 09/15 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1001z - - 1333z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 70.7 - - 82.0 - - 87.2 - - 86.7 - - 76.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 22 - - 377 - - 423 - - 115 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 6041 - - 9157 - - 10054 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4357 - - 9204 - - 11771 - - 11546 - - 4358 Hcrit BL Top 4375 - - 10869 - - 13985 - - 14882 - - 4376 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1960 - - 1939 - - 1403 - - 1113 - - 8855 Hgt.Variab. W* 30 - - 547 - - 654 - - 437 - - 3 W* B/S 1 - - 18 - - 14 - - 8 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 5 - - 9 - - 10 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 046 - - 227 - - 223 - - 227 - - 293 Direction Wind Shear 4 - - 11 - - 10 - - 1 - - 2 Wind Shear Max.Converg -12 - - -12 - - 14 - - 51 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -8569 - - -4168 - - -1555 - - 177 - - -7149 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 12945 - - 15038 - - 15541 - - 14706 - - 11526 sfcLCL ODpotential -15249 - - -8059 - - -4789 - - -2653 - - -12122 ODpotential blCL 19624 - - 18928 - - 18774 - - 17535 - - 16498 blCL maxRH 52 - - 45 - - 52 - - 67 - - 62 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 70.7 - - 82.0 - - 87.2 - - 86.7 - - 76.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 29.6 - - 30.9 - - 33.6 - - 36.9 - - 41.0 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 71.7 - - 80.5 - - 85.7 - - 86.8 - - 81.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 29.6 - - 30.9 - - 33.7 - - 36.9 - - 41.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 22 - - 377 - - 423 - - 115 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 6041 - - 9157 - - 10054 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 4 - - 5 - - 5 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98187 15 090 17 110 21 147 10 197 4 097 98187 90853 11 097 12 103 15 134 11 170 4 164 90853 85183 9 099 10 098 15 136 12 139 6 107 85183 80476 13 106 11 110 14 132 9 119 10 082 80476 76433 14 103 12 119 11 120 8 104 14 073 76433 72855 15 101 15 115 13 099 10 114 17 071 72855 69609 17 095 12 107 16 096 10 093 17 083 69609 66633 11 067 9 105 13 088 16 078 14 090 66633 63889 6 104 9 108 6 077 13 056 15 068 63889 61252 9 067 8 103 3 073 8 015 12 024 61252 58521 10 357 8 030 3 072 8 303 12 339 58521 55709 15 317 13 332 8 343 11 276 15 311 55709 53042 20 305 21 312 18 320 15 297 17 299 53042 50642 24 301 24 304 28 311 26 304 26 301 50642 48486 31 292 31 297 32 304 33 306 29 303 48486 46515 38 285 37 290 36 296 39 304 35 304 46515 44697 42 278 41 287 41 289 41 300 39 300 44697 43008 46 276 47 281 45 284 42 295 40 294 43008 41433 48 277 49 278 45 283 43 292 38 294 41433 39957 46 277 43 276 43 279 43 289 36 292 39957 38569 42 278 35 278 39 273 40 283 32 289 38569 37234 39 278 32 283 33 273 37 280 31 287 37234 35890 36 278 33 284 31 281 35 280 32 284 35890 34508 34 279 31 280 30 284 33 283 30 281 34508 33096 31 279 28 272 29 272 32 283 29 283 33096 31636 27 277 25 274 28 270 31 281 30 283 31636 30119 26 277 22 282 24 275 27 282 27 287 30119 28549 27 282 22 285 20 282 21 287 21 284 28549 26926 27 286 23 286 20 287 17 290 16 286 26926 25254 22 288 20 285 19 291 16 291 15 297 25254 23532 17 282 18 273 16 289 13 293 12 296 23532 21756 14 262 18 263 16 284 12 292 11 286 21756 19920 8 245 15 252 16 270 12 281 11 271 19920 18058 5 248 13 240 14 253 13 254 12 255 18058 16269 7 245 13 231 15 238 12*233 13 238 16269 14644 11 231 12 221 13*236 9*230 11 209 14644 13194 14 229 12 224 12*236 8 231 9 169 13194 11896 19 233 15*238 12 236 8 232 6 169 11896 10728 20 235 13*241 11 235 9 230 6 196 10728 9677 18 238 10 240 10 231 10 229 7 221 9677 8732 13 243 7 236 9 224 10 227 9 240 8732 7889 7 248 4 227 8 218 11 226 10 253 7889 7133 2 251 3 209 7 210 11 225 11 260 7133 6448 0 086 3 201 7 203 11 224 13 264 6448 5835 2 086 3 196 6 197 11 223 13 266 5835 5318 3 075 3 194 6 191 11 222 12 268 5318 4918 6 069 3 194 6 188 11 222 10 273 4918 4641 7 054 3 192 6 186 10 222 7 280 4641 4472 5*043 3 194 6 186 10 222 5*288 4472 4375 4*039 3 195 6 185 9 221 4*297 4375 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography