DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 11/17 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 46.1 - - 48.3 - - 49.3 - - 50.5 - - 46.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 0 - - 5 - - 11 - - -7 - - -16 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 311 - - 1169 - - 997 - - 275 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4356 - - 4356 - - 4356 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 5139 - - 5997 - - 5825 - - 5103 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 2711 - - 1815 - - 1894 - - 3554 - - 3219 Hgt.Variab. W* 35 - - 93 - - 104 - - 22 - - 9 W* B/S 1 - - 3 - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 5 - - 7 - - 5 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 131 - - 129 - - 132 - - 097 - - 054 Direction Wind Shear 4 - - 5 - - 7 - - 4 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 8 - - 4 - - 2 - - -5 - - -12 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 767 - - 1582 - - 1452 - - 731 - - -37 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4372 - - 4416 - - 4373 - - 4373 - - 4411 sfcLCL ODpotential -1299 - - -530 - - -584 - - -1785 - - -2927 ODpotential blCL 6438 - - 6527 - - 6409 - - 6888 - - 7301 blCL maxRH 99 - - 101 - - 100 - - 92 - - 87 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 40 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 46.1 - - 48.3 - - 49.3 - - 50.5 - - 46.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 42.8 - - 43.9 - - 45.2 - - 46.2 - - 42.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 47.8 - - 49.4 - - 50.2 - - 52.8 - - 51.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 41.8 - - 42.8 - - 44.1 - - 45.0 - - 41.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 0 - - 5 - - 11 - - -7 - - -16 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 311 - - 1169 - - 997 - - 275 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 97 - - 102 - - 101 - - 67 - - 50 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 6 - - 7 - - 7 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96452 9 234 5 321 8 251 7 337 6 324 96452 89335 6 070 3 278 3 131 5 026 3 060 89335 83849 7 032 3 119 7 093 3 041 3 016 83849 79272 6 333 3 065 5 082 2 037 9 349 79272 75308 7 335 5 051 1 244 4 022 4 329 75308 71796 7 351 1 175 2 330 6 314 5 334 71796 68619 7 320 6 257 5 002 4 277 4 250 68619 65701 4 309 14 270 10 302 4 341 2 227 65701 62987 12 261 15 248 16 270 12 275 7 299 62987 60326 13 263 22 243 23 255 18 250 12 286 60326 57530 13 268 22 240 26 242 23 244 23 258 57530 54629 29 253 25 250 26 247 25 247 26 242 54629 51867 37 256 34 255 32 249 33 249 33 241 51867 49395 42 259 42 250 41 241 43 243 41 244 49395 47192 50 258 47 242 45 241 49 243 48 245 47192 45195 52 253 48 243 52 245 52 246 52 241 45195 43364 50 252 55 247 57 251 58 251 57 243 43364 41679 48 260 59 249 64 251 69 250 67 244 41679 40117 58 264 64 251 70 247 76 244 74 242 40117 38661 68 258 72 252 74 245 77 242 75 240 38661 37301 74 256 76 250 79 244 77 243 77 239 37301 36003 73 256 78 248 81 243 78 246 76 241 36003 34700 71 256 78 246 82 242 79 248 77 245 34700 33364 72 256 76 245 82 242 80 249 78 246 33364 31997 72 257 73 246 79 242 81 249 74 243 31997 30584 70 257 71 246 75 243 78 249 67 242 30584 29115 66 258 65 246 69 241 70 250 62 243 29115 27592 62 258 57 246 62 240 59 247 53 241 27592 26018 56 258 52 243 55 237 51 241 44 238 26018 24393 48 260 47 240 50 233 47 238 35 237 24393 22721 41 263 43 235 45 229 44 237 31 237 22721 20999 35 266 37 228 43 227 41 236 32 236 20999 19222 28 264 30 225 40 229 37 235 31 234 19222 17427 22 260 27 225 35 231 33 236 27 232 17427 15706 22 260 25 227 30 231 28 238 24 234 15706 14144 24 265 22 232 27 231 25 238 24 235 14144 12752 25 269 18 235 24 229 23 236 25 234 12752 11508 24 269 15 234 19 220 21 233 23 233 11508 10391 21 262 14 228 16 208 19 223 20 228 10391 9390 17 248 15 226 14 203 16 201 17 212 9390 8493 13 233 15 229 14 203 15 180 17 191 8493 7694 10 228 13 228 14 201 14 173 17 181 7694 6979 7 221 10 221 13 196 13 168 14 177 6979 6332 5 199 7*200 11*184 11 160 10 172 6332 5753 5 165 6*163 8*165 9 148 6 156 5753 5264 6*149 6 133 7 139 8*131 5 132 5264 4886 7*142 6 119 7 119 7*111 5 101 4886 4624 6 131 5 114 7 115 6 096 6 078 4624 4464 5 123 5 113 6 114 5 088 6*061 4464 4373 3 120 4 113 5 113 3 082 5*054 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography