DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 05/18 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1013z - - 1338z - - 1603z - - 1902z - - 2200z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 55.6 - - 65.8 - - 72.0 - - 73.4 - - 64.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 97 - - 472 - - 522 - - 236 - - -16 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 2477 - - 7287 - - 8907 - - 10624 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 5871 - - 10308 - - 11673 - - 12606 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 7305 - - 12115 - - 13735 - - 15452 - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 3759 - - 1474 - - 1618 - - 1165 - - 8595 Hgt.Variab. W* 264 - - 631 - - 697 - - 568 - - 3 W* B/S 7 - - 12 - - 9 - - 8 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 7 - - 9 - - 13 - - 13 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 017 - - 321 - - 289 - - 272 - - 259 Direction Wind Shear 9 - - 12 - - 9 - - 2 - - 4 Wind Shear Max.Converg 11 - - 2 - - -25 - - 13 - - 11 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3091 - - -1024 - - -1288 - - -483 - - -9817 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 10396 - - 13139 - - 15024 - - 15936 - - 14193 sfcLCL ODpotential -8244 - - -5087 - - -7154 - - -5963 - - -17864 ODpotential blCL 15549 - - 17202 - - 20889 - - 21415 - - 22239 blCL maxRH 38 - - 47 - - 53 - - 63 - - 76 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 55.6 - - 65.8 - - 72.0 - - 73.4 - - 64.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 25.3 - - 22.9 - - 20.5 - - 17.8 - - 17.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 56.4 - - 64.9 - - 70.5 - - 73.1 - - 66.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 24.8 - - 22.5 - - 20.0 - - 17.3 - - 16.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 97 - - 472 - - 522 - - 236 - - -16 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 2477 - - 7287 - - 8907 - - 10624 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 3 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97903 23 101 24 108 25 119 22 133 14 107 97903 90440 26 098 23 119 24 108 23 094 19 092 90440 84733 23 107 21 118 19 114 18 095 23 094 84733 80017 19 117 21 118 19 111 16 108 19 101 80017 75954 21 113 19 124 18 121 14 109 17 111 75954 72362 14 117 17 139 12 130 9 115 13 121 72362 69112 15 124 17 141 13 146 9 155 11 140 69112 66120 6 175 9 151 10 171 8 182 9 144 66120 63342 8 168 6 184 9 201 16 236 10 242 63342 60653 13 273 14 246 15 239 20 220 21 243 60653 57849 25 278 22 271 19 265 24 248 26 243 57849 54937 32 279 34 277 35 274 33 262 38 265 54937 52166 37 286 45 283 49 276 50 268 49 263 52166 49692 52 292 57 281 58 278 51 273 50 269 49692 47490 66 287 62 282 62 285 61 282 66 282 47490 45514 69 289 66 291 77 291 74 283 84 278 45514 43727 75 300 81 299 93 291 88 287 89 279 43727 42087 87 305 96 297 103 288 100 283 98 279 42087 40558 100 305 103 294 106 285 101 278 99 273 40558 39120 107 304 103 293 101 285 97 280 95 270 39120 37762 110 303 101 294 95 288 93 283 91 273 37762 36452 109 305 97 297 90 292 89 286 87 277 36452 35131 107 308 91 302 84 296 85 289 81 277 35131 33773 103 311 85 304 77 297 78 290 73 278 33773 32381 96 314 79 304 72 297 70 290 67 279 32381 30941 89 313 75 307 70 296 63 291 64 279 30941 29444 82 313 70 308 69 295 60 289 61 279 29444 27893 75 317 62 304 66 298 57 284 59 279 27893 26288 69 314 57 298 59 297 53 283 58 280 26288 24632 68 306 55 296 55 291 49 284 57 279 24632 22930 68 301 52 297 52 288 45 282 54 276 22930 21175 61 301 49 300 48 292 43 282 49 275 21175 19370 48 307 43 300 39 297 38 284 43 276 19370 17554 39 315 33 303 28 299 25 282 34 276 17554 15822 33 317 25 308 20 295 12*271 23 266 15822 14254 28 318 23 305 17*289 11*273 11 240 14254 12860 21 323 20*306 17*289 11 275 6 190 12860 11612 15 337 17*315 16 289 11 276 7 192 11612 10489 12 351 12 329 15 290 12 275 7 220 10489 9479 12 001 10 332 14 290 13 274 9 244 9479 8571 12 008 9 329 14 290 14 273 12 254 8571 7759 11*014 9 325 13 289 15 272 15 258 7759 7032 10*020 8 320 12 289 15 271 16 258 7032 6373 10 023 7 314 12 287 15 270 17 259 6373 5782 9 022 7 308 11 287 15 270 18 259 5782 5285 6 013 7 303 10 286 15 269 17 260 5285 4898 4 002 6 299 10 285 15 269 15 260 4898 4631 3 352 6 298 10 285 15 269 12 260 4631 4468 3 345 6 295 9 283 14 268 8*259 4468 4374 2 343 5 293 8 283 12 268 5*258 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography