DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 12/18 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0701z - - 1003z - - 1336z - - 1601z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 62.3 - - 71.2 - - 64.3 - - 57.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 28 - - 89 - - -8 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 265 - - 3384 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4357 - - 6444 - - 4357 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5093 - - 8212 - - 4375 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1185 - - 2034 - - 4271 - - 1410 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 88 - - 284 - - 5 - - 2 W* B/S - - - 3 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 6 - - 11 - - 5 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 301 - - 309 - - 302 - - 347 Direction Wind Shear - - - 4 - - 11 - - 3 - - 1 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -4 - - 8 - - -5 - - -10 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -5616 - - -6549 - - -9277 - - -8150 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 10710 - - 14762 - - 13652 - - 12525 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -14079 - - -12699 - - -16515 - - -16975 ODpotential blCL - - - 19172 - - 20911 - - 20890 - - 21349 blCL maxRH - - - 73 - - 67 - - 72 - - 83 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 62.3 - - 71.2 - - 64.3 - - 57.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 30.9 - - 21.7 - - 20.3 - - 18.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 63.2 - - 71.5 - - 69.3 - - 64.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 29.7 - - 20.6 - - 19.1 - - 18.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 28 - - 89 - - -8 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 265 - - 3384 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 34 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96195 2 255 23 240 25 240 22 288 96195 89210 4 052 2 315 5 275 6 216 89210 83761 10 333 15 313 14 312 2 111 83761 79171 17 308 18 295 21 305 13 001 79171 75193 22 305 16 306 20 298 27 323 75193 71710 25 284 18 301 13 294 23 310 71710 68581 22 310 23 319 14 308 16 308 68581 65695 27 322 28 330 22 306 14 272 65695 62999 34 317 31 303 28 300 17 292 62999 60405 40 315 34 298 35 315 33 303 60405 57726 36 312 39 316 45 314 40 304 57726 54952 41 317 43 316 51 319 45 320 54952 52292 52 317 46 320 58 325 50 329 52292 49877 56 319 55 323 64 321 54 324 49877 47703 62 321 63 318 67 318 63 321 47703 45740 65 318 62 309 66 316 66 319 45740 43959 60 314 57 303 59 313 57 317 43959 42327 52 314 50 300 52 310 49 317 42327 40810 49 315 44 302 47 308 47 317 40810 39383 50 316 42 306 44 310 45 320 39383 38037 51 317 42 312 43 312 43 323 38037 36740 54 320 43 317 44 315 41 327 36740 35429 56 318 44 322 44 316 41 329 35429 34077 56 310 44 325 42 317 42 329 34077 32686 53 307 43 328 40 318 42 328 32686 31246 53 306 43 329 38 320 43 328 31246 29748 54 303 43 327 38 322 45 329 29748 28194 55 300 43 324 41 325 46 329 28194 26587 54 298 43 321 44 328 47 328 26587 24930 50 299 41 321 45 331 47 327 24930 23226 46 301 39 323 43 333 45 329 23226 21470 43 308 38 327 40 336 42 329 21470 19654 41 319 37 332 36 340 38 330 19654 17814 37 329 38 337 33 343 34 332 17814 16044 33 337 38 340 32 345 31 334 16044 14433 33 342 36 339 30 348 28 335 14433 12997 31 340 32 334 28 350 26 335 12997 11712 27 337 29 327 25 352 23 337 11712 10560 22 334 27 323 22 351 20 337 10560 9528 19 333 24 325 19 350 16 337 9528 8603 16 333 19*329 17 347 14 335 8603 7779 14 333 16*327 15 345 12 335 7779 7043 13 336 13 320 14 344 11 339 7043 6377 12 343 12 311 13 344 10 348 6377 5783 10 349 11 302 12 340 9 003 5783 5283 8*338 10 298 11 334 8 013 5283 4897 8*313 10 294 10 326 7 013 4897 4630 6 300 9 291 9 315 5 357 4630 4467 5 293 8 289 7*307 4*346 4467 4373 4 289 7 286 4*297 4*348 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography