DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 12/06 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0957z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1856z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 40.9 - - 50.6 - - 57.5 - - 54.2 - - 48.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -3 - - 42 - - 72 - - -8 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 685 - - 1622 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4356 - - 4356 - - 4357 - - 4356 - - 4356 Hcrit BL Top 4373 - - 5513 - - 6450 - - 4374 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1202 - - 1206 - - 2171 - - 3621 - - 1746 Hgt.Variab. W* 4 - - 137 - - 211 - - 7 - - 3 W* B/S 0 - - 14 - - 8 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 2 - - 5 - - 4 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 351 - - 244 - - 273 - - 146 - - 085 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 10 - - 0 - - 1 Wind Shear Max.Converg -7 - - 4 - - 7 - - 6 - - -5 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3003 - - -2303 - - -2487 - - -3685 - - -2431 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7376 - - 7816 - - 8938 - - 8059 - - 6805 sfcLCL ODpotential -14114 - - -11558 - - -9492 - - -9364 - - -9905 ODpotential blCL 18487 - - 17071 - - 15942 - - 13738 - - 14279 blCL maxRH 48 - - 55 - - 59 - - 62 - - 49 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 40.9 - - 50.6 - - 57.5 - - 54.2 - - 48.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 24.4 - - 31.8 - - 33.6 - - 34.4 - - 33.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 47.8 - - 51.3 - - 58.1 - - 58.3 - - 54.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 23.3 - - 30.6 - - 32.5 - - 33.2 - - 33.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -3 - - 42 - - 72 - - -8 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 685 - - 1622 - - 16 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 4 - - 4 - - 5 - - 5 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96237 4 077 13 295 3 230 11 270 7 318 96237 89080 5 282 2 034 5 189 2 306 10 284 89080 83540 6 225 6 029 3 167 4 016 8 295 83540 78933 4 338 5 309 5 354 9 321 7 338 78933 74963 10 334 4 201 15 296 17 321 12 326 74963 71462 12 307 13 307 15 274 16 290 12 309 71462 68286 28 295 22 278 22 296 30 290 26 297 68286 65417 31 274 30 282 46 298 37 296 31 293 65417 62819 28 287 42 287 51 291 41 311 35 319 62819 60303 31 292 45 283 49 287 50 296 52 310 60303 57667 30 298 41 287 43 285 46 283 51 283 57667 54908 36 309 41 301 39 293 42 290 48 283 54908 52241 46 317 44 308 46 306 51 306 52 295 52241 49822 51 315 46 306 54 305 59 306 57 302 49822 47638 50 307 44 300 57 301 61 304 64 306 47638 45646 43 302 38 298 56 297 63 303 68 308 45646 43817 35 312 37 306 54 297 62 300 66 308 43817 42127 35 329 41 316 49 299 58 297 58 310 42127 40557 42 337 43 322 48 305 56 305 48 310 40557 39093 49 337 44 328 49 314 53 313 45 308 39093 37723 55 333 49 332 47 323 48 321 48 316 37723 36411 57 328 52 332 48 330 53 330 53 323 36411 35094 57 329 53 330 51 332 57 333 56 327 35094 33743 57 332 51 329 51 331 58 333 58 329 33743 32359 54 333 50 330 51 330 57 330 59 329 32359 30930 52 334 50 329 52 330 56 328 60 328 30930 29445 53 335 50 328 54 331 54 325 60 328 29445 27905 54 337 50 327 56 332 53 326 58 327 27905 26313 53 337 49 328 58 334 52 328 55 326 26313 24671 49 336 46 328 60 334 52 334 53 324 24671 22981 43 335 44 327 60 333 51 340 52 326 22981 21235 39 333 42 324 58 330 53 342 51 330 21235 19431 37 330 41 322 52 329 55 339 52 333 19431 17601 38 327 40 322 47 329 57 334 53 333 17601 15847 36 329 37 324 43 330 55 331 52 333 15847 14255 33 334 33 327 41 332 49 332 48 335 14255 12840 28 337 29 329 37 333 42 335 43 338 12840 11578 25 336 27 330 33 333 35 338 36 342 11578 10448 22 331 26 329 29 337 28 339 28 344 10448 9436 21 324 24 325 25 340 20 338 21 344 9436 8529 19 320 22 320 18 337 15 334 17 340 8529 7721 18 318 20 314 14 322 13 327 15 336 7721 6998 14 317 17 310 12*307 12 318 12 332 6998 6344 11 317 13 307 10*299 10 309 8 328 6344 5760 8 315 9*302 7 282 8 298 4 325 5760 5268 6 314 4*292 4 261 4 279 1 330 5268 4888 4 321 2 229 4 246 2 204 1 120 4888 4625 3 330 2 218 3 239 3 158 2 105 4625 4465 2*344 2 211 3 233 4*148 3*089 4465 4373 2*355 2 207 3 229 4*144 3*084 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography