DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 11/17 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1014z - - 1336z - - 1604z - - 1903z - - 2201z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 50.1 - - 68.0 - - 74.5 - - 68.8 - - 58.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -25 - - 216 - - 218 - - -22 - - -54 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 2642 - - 4656 - - 650 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 4357 - - 6370 - - 7876 - - 4358 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 4374 - - 7470 - - 9484 - - 5478 - - 4375 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 594 - - 1991 - - 1035 - - 3463 - - 241 Hgt.Variab. W* 4 - - 345 - - 418 - - 22 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 6 - - 11 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 11 - - 7 - - 11 - - 8 BL Wind Direction 014 - - 089 - - 094 - - 078 - - 044 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 2 - - 8 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -18 - - 25 - - -4 - - -14 - - -20 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -6627 - - -7520 - - -7686 - - -10470 - - -9724 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 11002 - - 14991 - - 17171 - - 15949 - - 14100 sfcLCL ODpotential -16977 - - -14821 - - -13827 - - -17793 - - -19479 ODpotential blCL 21351 - - 22291 - - 23311 - - 23271 - - 23854 blCL maxRH 31 - - 28 - - 21 - - 49 - - 36 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 50.1 - - 68.0 - - 74.5 - - 68.8 - - 58.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 18.2 - - 17.8 - - 14.3 - - 14.7 - - 13.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 54.4 - - 67.8 - - 74.1 - - 71.1 - - 62.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 18.2 - - 17.7 - - 14.2 - - 14.6 - - 13.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -25 - - 216 - - 218 - - -22 - - -54 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 2642 - - 4656 - - 650 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97002 50 268 56 257 57 265 54 265 65 267 97002 89691 36 272 33 260 39 254 38 261 40 282 89691 84071 28 265 21 271 26 253 30 271 28 269 84071 79403 17 265 15 280 15 281 18 305 18 308 79403 75426 10 280 8 300 12 284 8 290 5 249 75426 71928 6 323 7 331 13 330 13 346 6 045 71928 68765 10 005 3 318 11 317 16 329 6 356 68765 65855 17 009 3 029 6 261 14 285 2 006 65855 63147 21 358 18 351 19 348 20 339 26 001 63147 60574 18 329 17 335 17 318 23 331 32 348 60574 57950 18 257 9 294 21 252 18 263 24 326 57950 55229 25 001 26 003 19 002 15 347 11 338 55229 52602 38 348 29 347 45 356 39 354 21 336 52602 50215 25 348 23 358 38 349 36 359 24 349 50215 48066 17 013 22 004 24 027 41 023 28 014 48066 46112 31 024 25 030 37 048 50 029 37 031 46112 44322 42 034 40 044 45 040 45 031 41 039 44322 42669 53 036 46 045 45 042 36 041 34 043 42669 41128 55 036 47 046 39 050 29 056 23 044 41128 39678 56 040 52 048 39 061 26 063 20 051 39678 38310 58 043 58 049 43 066 28 062 25 059 38310 36992 57 044 65 051 50 064 33 060 33 056 36992 35662 51 043 64 053 56 060 39 055 38 053 35662 34293 44 039 55 050 55 059 42 050 38 051 34293 32890 39 037 47 047 51 066 41 046 34 052 32890 31440 35 040 37 054 44 070 39 047 28 053 31440 29934 32 046 29 059 35 060 35 052 21 058 29934 28374 28 055 25 061 26 052 24 054 11 078 28374 26759 24 055 22 063 19 056 17 040 4 077 26759 25093 20 052 21 062 16 052 16 024 5 027 25093 23376 17 056 20 056 16 041 13 018 8 357 23376 21602 16 056 18 048 14 030 12 010 9 343 21602 19766 18 050 16 047 12 019 12 355 11 345 19766 17902 21 048 15 051 12 010 12 350 15 358 17902 16109 21 051 15 056 12 010 11 359 17 012 16109 14478 18 053 14 065 10 016 12 004 16 024 14478 13026 16 045 13 070 9 028 11 013 14 030 13026 11733 13 031 12 066 8 039 9 029 12 034 11733 10578 11 016 10 055 7 052 7 047 8 030 10578 9543 6 003 7 058 7*068 5 066 4 001 9543 8617 3 005 6 101 7*082 5 089 3 311 8617 7792 4 051 8*106 7 091 5 107 3 281 7792 7054 9 069 11*097 7 095 6 112 2 243 7054 6385 16 073 13 090 7 096 9 101 2 168 6385 5789 23 074 13 086 7 096 12*087 5 126 5789 5286 26 071 11 087 7 097 13*081 8 105 5286 4898 22 064 10 088 6 098 12 079 11 083 4898 4630 15 054 9 090 6 100 11 078 12 064 4630 4467 9*037 8 093 6 101 8 076 11*050 4467 4374 5*014 7 095 5 101 6 074 8*044 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography