DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 12/14 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1002z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 61.0 - - 65.4 - - 59.9 - - 56.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 52 - - 90 - - -2 - - -20 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 653 - - 1269 - - 19 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top - - - 5481 - - 6097 - - 4847 - - 4374 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 1566 - - 1829 - - 2420 - - 1656 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 139 - - 204 - - 0 - - 3 W* B/S - - - 11 - - 10 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 2 - - 4 - - 3 - - 6 BL Wind Direction - - - 120 - - 169 - - 037 - - 041 Direction Wind Shear - - - 4 - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -8 - - 9 - - -7 - - -15 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -7499 - - -8169 - - -7973 - - -7856 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 12981 - - 14267 - - 12821 - - 12230 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -16243 - - -15502 - - -15683 - - -15884 ODpotential blCL - - - 21724 - - 21599 - - 20530 - - 20258 blCL maxRH - - - 89 - - 73 - - 83 - - 74 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 61.0 - - 65.4 - - 59.9 - - 56.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 19.9 - - 18.4 - - 19.6 - - 19.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 61.6 - - 65.6 - - 64.9 - - 63.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 18.8 - - 17.3 - - 18.5 - - 18.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 52 - - 90 - - -2 - - -20 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 653 - - 1269 - - 19 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 56 - - 0 - - 32 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96292 27 309 30 315 19 287 29 322 96292 89397 14 001 13 347 21 035 20 022 89397 83982 10 043 15 045 24 046 22 058 83982 79429 12 042 16 041 24 053 29 066 79429 75491 15 039 17 040 22 060 30 061 75491 72019 13 056 16 045 16 057 29 060 72019 68882 17 063 12 043 14 030 24 048 68882 66005 19 038 13 045 14 015 22 030 66005 63344 16 008 12 025 11 001 17 012 63344 60761 15 353 13 359 12 336 15 340 60761 58055 14 339 15 350 11 335 14 319 58055 55236 14 326 14 336 9 331 11 307 55236 52529 12 307 15 303 12 320 11 321 52529 50072 9 307 12 296 12 316 12 310 50072 47852 15 277 16 293 14 325 10 297 47852 45830 21 261 20 270 21 305 12 296 45830 43977 29 252 29 259 27 288 17 288 43977 42268 30 250 34 253 31 269 23 272 42268 40686 30 255 33 252 38 260 31 261 40686 39219 33 260 37 255 42 253 37 252 39219 37856 40 258 41 253 42 245 42 245 37856 36558 38 250 41 246 45 239 45 241 36558 35256 36 245 41 244 48 239 45 238 35256 33918 35 247 43 246 46 243 44 237 33918 32543 32 253 41 248 41 246 42 238 32543 31120 22 250 32 247 36 246 38 239 31120 29635 15 239 23 238 29 233 30 236 29635 28095 12 253 20 233 26 218 24 222 28095 26499 12 265 21 234 26 213 28 215 26499 24851 10 260 18 231 24 203 24 215 24851 23154 7 243 12 223 20 192 22 199 23154 21403 7 217 12 209 17 188 21 188 21403 19593 9 208 11 198 14 184 17 186 19593 17759 10 212 9 185 13 180 14 185 17759 16000 10 212 7 161 11 168 12 181 16000 14402 7 204 7 150 10 164 10 176 14402 12976 4 181 7 148 7 163 7 171 12976 11700 3 148 6 145 4 154 4 162 11700 10554 3 134 4 136 2 129 2 140 10554 9523 2 137 3 125 2 116 1 104 9523 8601 4 147 4 129 4 124 2 094 8601 7777 6 146 6 138 7 139 3 128 7777 7042 9 146 7 147 8 153 4 150 7042 6377 10 145 7*154 7 164 5 160 6377 5784 8*140 6*161 5 169 3 166 5784 5284 5*124 4 168 3 159 2 122 5284 4897 2 109 3 171 2*092 3 071 4897 4630 2 120 3 175 3*047 6 057 4630 4467 1 136 3 177 3 036 7*047 4467 4373 1 149 3 180 3 031 6*041 4373 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography