DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 09/27 Sedona_AZ 4828ft pt26576@34.853,-111.929,4491ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by +1.1 degF SPONSORED BY: Ted Grussing RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1008z - - 1337z - - 1602z - - 1902z - - 2202z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 59.4 - - 64.0 - - 67.3 - - 65.4 - - 60.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 18 - - 85 - - 140 - - 9 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 757 - - 1850 - - 1919 - - 1416 - - 118 BL Depth Hcrit 4357 - - 5412 - - 5730 - - 4357 - - 4357 Hcrit BL Top 5585 - - 6678 - - 6747 - - 6244 - - 4946 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1418 - - 1724 - - 2146 - - 1896 - - 1890 Hgt.Variab. W* 108 - - 240 - - 281 - - 122 - - 11 W* B/S 7 - - 19 - - 21 - - 17 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 1 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 110 - - 175 - - 216 - - 137 - - 109 Direction Wind Shear 3 - - 2 - - 3 - - 4 - - 3 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - 8 - - 7 - - 3 - - 3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 1212 - - 1642 - - 1353 - - 1572 - - 572 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 4373 - - 5036 - - 5394 - - 4672 - - 4374 sfcLCL ODpotential -780 - - -314 - - -796 - - -488 - - -740 ODpotential blCL 6365 - - 6992 - - 7543 - - 6732 - - 5686 blCL maxRH 93 - - 94 - - 95 - - 98 - - 96 maxRH CAPE 40 - - 370 - - 1050 - - 1250 - - 970 CAPE Temp@2m 59.4 - - 64.0 - - 67.3 - - 65.4 - - 60.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 55.4 - - 56.6 - - 58.3 - - 59.3 - - 59.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 60.3 - - 64.4 - - 67.3 - - 66.4 - - 62.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 54.7 - - 55.3 - - 57.1 - - 58.3 - - 59.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 18 - - 85 - - 140 - - 9 - - -1 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 757 - - 1850 - - 1919 - - 1416 - - 118 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 73 - - 77 - - 81 - - 92 - - 83 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 10 - - 10 - - 11 - - 12 - - 12 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98228 7 246 5 107 13 201 12 245 7 303 98228 90888 1 132 3 243 7 179 5 186 2 261 90888 85204 6 097 5 191 8 183 3 155 3 015 85204 80467 6 063 5 108 8 157 2 156 5 354 80467 76386 4 044 9 118 8 152 7 136 5 037 76386 72771 3 286 3 179 6 189 2 200 4 041 72771 69494 5 290 4 255 9 208 8 253 7 300 69494 66493 6 293 5 274 9 223 11 246 8 273 66493 63720 5 313 8 274 7 269 7 240 6 241 63720 61032 7 291 12 269 13 279 8 257 7 221 61032 58230 8 261 13 261 13 260 10 256 11 250 58230 55347 8 258 10 260 13 258 11 260 13 261 55347 52622 5 238 11 257 14 265 14 284 10 275 52622 50185 8 338 4 262 14 277 21 290 15 296 50185 48008 14 335 11 326 15 305 24 297 23 310 48008 46028 19 353 15 338 19 315 26 306 28 312 46028 44204 27 355 21 357 19 315 29 305 31 311 44204 42512 32 344 28 353 19 330 28 304 34 308 42512 40934 27 337 25 344 23 334 26 317 31 309 40934 39464 20 333 16 341 22 331 26 324 27 321 39464 38094 15 006 12 003 19 326 24 331 21 330 38094 36786 19 023 15 028 14 329 20 333 17 354 36786 35470 16 024 19 035 12 003 14 323 15 356 35470 34113 14 031 20 030 16 027 10 345 13 351 34113 32719 16 033 19 019 16 029 12 006 12 340 32719 31276 17 028 17 016 14 012 16 007 14 344 31276 29775 18 020 18 020 16 358 18 360 14 351 29775 28218 20 020 18 023 20 356 20 001 14 352 28218 26606 19 024 18 020 20 355 19 004 15 358 26606 24942 16 024 17 011 22 353 20 004 16 001 24942 23231 15 018 17 007 24 345 20 009 18 004 23231 21470 16 024 18 014 24 346 19 016 19 006 21470 19652 18 038 19 020 20 351 17 024 19 011 19652 17813 17 043 20 029 18 356 19 029 20 018 17813 16050 16 046 20 037 20 012 19 033 23 025 16050 14447 15 049 19 043 21 015 16 032 24 025 14447 13016 15 049 16 051 19 019 14 024 22 020 13016 11735 15 047 13 057 14 026 14 011 20 010 11735 10583 14 045 9 056 10 029 13 357 17 356 10583 9549 13 039 6 036 6 027 10 341 13 341 9549 8621 9 032 5 010 2 353 8 324 9 325 8621 7794 4 028 4 356 3 266 6 314 6 310 7794 7056 1 117 1*333 4*250 4 314 1 288 7056 6388 3 164 1*184 4*244 2*328 2 149 6388 5792 4*154 2 171 2 224 1*349 2 120 5792 5290 4*139 3 175 2 209 1 131 4*126 5290 4901 3 109 3 175 2 204 2 143 5*121 4901 4632 2 089 3 175 2 198 2 146 4 110 4632 4468 2 091 3 175 2 197 2 147 3 099 4468 4374 2 095 3 175 2 194 2 146 2 087 4374 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography