DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 11/16 Panoche 2321ft pt31353@36.586,-120.999 (at ridge) SPONSORED BY: DrJack RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0653z - - 0955z - - 1000z - - 1333z - - 1855z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 9 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 49.5 - - 51.1 - - 52.4 - - 51.3 - - 47.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 4 - - 22 - - 57 - - -1 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 345 - - 1527 - - 1103 - - 16 BL Depth Hcrit 2321 - - 2321 - - 2321 - - 2321 - - 2321 Hcrit BL Top 2337 - - 2667 - - 3849 - - 3425 - - 2338 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1873 - - 2035 - - 1857 - - 2203 - - 1737 Hgt.Variab. W* 17 - - 85 - - 192 - - 69 - - 6 W* B/S 1 - - 3 - - 3 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 5 - - 11 - - 12 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 271 - - 255 - - 262 - - 212 - - 203 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 1 - - 7 - - 7 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 1 - - 2 - - -8 - - -2 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 0 - - 329 - - 1403 - - 921 - - 1 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2337 - - 2338 - - 2446 - - 2504 - - 2338 sfcLCL ODpotential -145 - - -37 - - 358 - - -90 - - -608 ODpotential blCL 2482 - - 2704 - - 3491 - - 3515 - - 2946 blCL maxRH 100 - - 100 - - 99 - - 96 - - 99 maxRH CAPE 30 - - 60 - - 80 - - 0 - - 10 CAPE Temp@2m 49.5 - - 51.1 - - 52.4 - - 51.3 - - 47.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 49.2 - - 49.9 - - 49.5 - - 48.2 - - 46.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 49.5 - - 50.8 - - 51.9 - - 51.5 - - 48.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 49.2 - - 49.4 - - 48.4 - - 47.5 - - 46.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 4 - - 22 - - 57 - - -1 - - -10 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 16 - - 345 - - 1527 - - 1103 - - 16 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 101 - - 101 - - 95 - - 83 - - 98 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 8 - - 8 - - 7 - - 7 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96602 29 094 17 048 13 083 9 043 12 050 96602 89501 18 079 24 077 17 083 14 084 20 065 89501 83952 6 047 23 082 17 084 14 083 19 066 83952 79335 1 045 11 079 13 077 13 063 14 065 79335 75376 5 079 5 082 5 039 12 020 12 052 75376 71880 8 091 2 062 4 346 10 336 9 022 71880 68700 8 101 3 257 8 314 6 330 7 352 68700 65758 4 250 5 226 11 283 4 262 6 310 65758 63010 13 241 10 220 17 259 4 211 6 264 63010 60326 18 218 15 213 19 243 5 248 10 270 60326 57514 15 208 14 212 18 239 11 252 16 275 57514 54593 16 233 13 224 17 231 16 257 19 267 54593 51805 19 235 16 256 14 257 23 265 24 264 51805 49306 18 238 24 275 21 274 34 274 27 269 49306 47075 16 245 26 276 25 284 33 272 32 277 47075 45049 13 268 27 290 29 286 32 278 37 272 45049 43187 15 287 27 299 35 292 36 276 41 274 43187 41470 14 305 25 314 41 294 41 271 47 282 41470 39885 22 339 32 327 43 296 45 272 56 280 39885 38417 34 335 43 332 47 295 57 268 58 271 38417 37051 44 333 52 330 47 294 58 259 55 268 37051 35747 39 337 49 330 46 294 53 258 54 270 35747 34432 44 336 44 324 46 296 55 265 54 274 34432 33075 48 337 45 310 47 297 61 271 55 276 33075 31674 47 338 41 308 46 298 59 271 56 272 31674 30216 46 341 38 313 44 301 56 269 60 271 30216 28695 46 343 37 317 44 305 52 270 64 269 28695 27113 46 343 36 320 46 305 49 271 66 266 27113 25463 43 344 36 327 46 304 48 272 63 266 25463 23747 39 345 33 332 39 307 48 273 57 266 23747 21970 36 343 33 331 35 307 50 276 53 265 21970 20123 33 341 32 324 37 310 46 282 49 266 20123 18201 27 340 31 314 37 313 36 284 40 266 18201 16248 16 326 33 311 33 309 30 284 36 263 16248 14368 13 288 31 312 27 304 28 282 31 261 14368 12661 14 262 26 310 23 301 24 284 26 261 12661 11145 12 258 18 310 18 295 20 288 21 266 11145 9798 12 277 14 305 15 282 18 294 15 273 9798 8597 12 289 14 289 14 266 18 292 10 279 8597 7525 14 293 15 283 15 257 17 280 8 275 7525 6571 15 295 15 285 17 253 15 263 8 259 6571 5728 15 296 14 290 18 252 14 246 10 236 5728 4983 16 296 13 291 17 253 13 231 15 223 4983 4315 15 295 11 288 16*256 13 222 21 216 4315 3725 15 291 9 280 14*259 14*216 25 210 3725 3231 13 286 7 266 12 262 14*213 24 206 3231 2851 11 280 6*257 11 263 14 212 22 204 2851 2588 10 275 6*256 10 263 13 211 17 203 2588 2429 8 273 5 254 9 263 11 211 14*203 2429 2338 5*271 4 255 7 263 7 210 7*203 2338 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography