DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 09/29 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0653z - - 0955z - - 1326z - - 1554z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 47.1 - - 58.0 - - 62.9 - - 62.1 - - 55.6 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -7 - - 203 - - 274 - - 87 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 75 - - 2675 - - 3376 - - 3492 - - 76 BL Depth Hcrit 768 - - 2227 - - 2862 - - 2314 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top 784 - - 3384 - - 4085 - - 4201 - - 785 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 625 - - 1072 - - 1064 - - 1117 - - 2610 Hgt.Variab. W* 12 - - 333 - - 397 - - 277 - - 3 W* B/S 1 - - 4 - - 5 - - 3 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 17 - - 14 - - 15 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 336 - - 010 - - 013 - - 019 - - 053 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 9 - - 6 - - 7 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 1 - - 4 - - 3 - - 3 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -275 - - -60 - - -568 - - 26 - - -1711 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 1059 - - 3444 - - 4653 - - 4176 - - 2496 sfcLCL ODpotential -4526 - - -3455 - - -7166 - - -836 - - -3337 ODpotential blCL 5310 - - 6839 - - 11251 - - 5037 - - 4122 blCL maxRH 87 - - 89 - - 85 - - 91 - - 81 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 47.1 - - 58.0 - - 62.9 - - 62.1 - - 55.6 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 45.6 - - 46.0 - - 45.6 - - 46.9 - - 47.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 48.4 - - 56.5 - - 61.1 - - 61.2 - - 56.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 46.0 - - 45.4 - - 44.8 - - 46.4 - - 47.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -7 - - 203 - - 274 - - 87 - - -15 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 75 - - 2675 - - 3376 - - 3492 - - 76 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 49 - - 57 - - 42 - - 65 - - 24 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 7 - - 6 - - 6 - - 7 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98007 15 054 17 076 14 081 10 061 8 022 98007 90674 9 065 12 076 15 089 7 041 11 049 90674 85022 10 033 10 086 15 073 7 101 14 058 85022 80323 6 057 11 079 14 067 11 094 12 058 80323 76265 8 071 13 082 9 066 11 059 10 048 76265 72677 1 032 14 092 3 098 8 019 8 054 72677 69428 2 107 6 085 10 154 5 217 4 271 69428 66448 7 274 2 171 9 179 5 224 3 246 66448 63695 12 251 7 279 10 210 11 260 7 289 63695 61050 13 256 13 294 5 239 8 222 10 284 61050 58303 18 265 22 271 14 288 10 262 13 260 58303 55455 25 253 32 245 30 258 32 262 24 259 55455 52748 31 252 33 243 34 249 36 247 32 252 52748 50319 48 255 42 253 41 251 39 247 40 248 50319 48143 66 254 55 254 58 248 59 248 56 248 48143 46171 83 250 71 248 74 242 75 242 74 239 46171 44366 97 243 85 242 83 234 89 232 89 230 44366 42693 107 236 96 235 98 229 105 227 108 222 42693 41122 117 229 111 226 111 224 113 221 105 218 41122 39636 124 225 120 220 117 219 110 219 98 215 39636 38228 127 226 121 220 112 214 104 217 94 212 38228 36858 124 230 119 221 115 212 105 214 94 213 36858 35457 105 236 114 223 113 218 107 216 94 219 35457 33997 81 246 95 231 106 227 100 224 89 224 33997 32484 64 252 71 242 86 235 84 235 79 230 32484 30910 57 262 55 261 57 250 52 248 60 240 30910 29275 50 264 44 274 40 273 28 273 17 281 29275 27575 39 260 30 286 25 295 16 291 10 277 27575 25791 28 274 22 310 20 340 13 329 2 272 25791 23926 20 302 21 338 23 001 16 340 5 354 23926 21984 19 332 24 001 23 008 17 350 9 009 21984 19964 20 348 30 016 22 017 20 005 11 022 19964 17861 22 355 32 022 23 029 19 023 13 032 17861 15716 22 358 30 017 22 030 17 036 12 032 15716 13648 19 002 26 011 22 027 17 034 15 031 13648 11766 19 006 22 007 19 033 18 040 18 046 11766 10098 22 007 22 010 17 040 18 048 19 051 10098 8627 20 012 22 022 18 048 18 049 17 050 8627 7332 17 020 18 021 18 047 17 044 17 054 7332 6188 16 021 16 019 17 035 17 030 18 053 6188 5182 17 020 19 020 16 021 16 018 17 041 5182 4300 19 018 23 018 15*017 16*018 18 028 4300 3523 22 018 20*013 15*016 16*019 18 025 3523 2829 26 017 19*011 15 014 16 019 18 032 2829 2215 27 012 18 010 15 014 16 019 17 041 2215 1704 25 006 18 010 15 013 16 019 17 048 1704 1311 21 001 17 009 14 012 15 019 15 052 1311 1042 14 352 16 009 13 012 14 019 12 054 1042 878 10 344 14 009 12 011 13 019 9*054 878 785 4*336 10 008 9 011 9 018 4*053 785 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography