DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 09/21 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0658z - - 1002z - - 1332z - - 1603z - - 1900z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 58.2 - - 77.3 - - 87.3 - - 88.8 - - 81.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -6 - - 183 - - 263 - - 89 - - -9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 60 - - 1356 - - 6127 - - 62 - - 62 BL Depth Hcrit 753 - - 1241 - - 4954 - - 755 - - 755 Hcrit BL Top 769 - - 2065 - - 6836 - - 771 - - 771 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 102 - - 2273 - - 2252 - - 9740 - - 4499 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 256 - - 478 - - 73 - - 12 W* B/S 0 - - 28 - - 16 - - 25 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 2 - - 5 - - 1 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 244 - - 262 - - 253 - - 226 - - 136 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 2 - - 11 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - -1 - - 2 - - 1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -440 - - -2626 - - -655 - - -7481 - - -5424 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 1209 - - 4691 - - 7492 - - 8252 - - 6195 sfcLCL ODpotential -8854 - - -4211 - - -1007 - - -7756 - - -6917 ODpotential blCL 9623 - - 6276 - - 7843 - - 8527 - - 7688 blCL maxRH 80 - - 78 - - 82 - - 79 - - 100 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 40 - - 30 - - 100 CAPE Temp@2m 58.2 - - 77.3 - - 87.3 - - 88.8 - - 81.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 55.7 - - 59.7 - - 57.2 - - 55.4 - - 57.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 58.8 - - 76.3 - - 85.4 - - 87.6 - - 83.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 55.6 - - 59.5 - - 56.8 - - 55.0 - - 57.2 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -6 - - 183 - - 263 - - 89 - - -9 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 60 - - 1356 - - 6127 - - 62 - - 62 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 18 - - 10 - - 30 - - 14 - - 101 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 10 - - 11 - - 10 - - 9 - - 10 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97875 11 050 15 003 15 068 4 058 11 051 97875 90634 18 025 10 052 8 034 11 060 8 035 90634 85034 16 029 14 095 6 004 13 044 10 040 85034 80373 12 067 12 119 5 348 11 009 12 037 80373 76355 10 059 8 114 3 056 8 324 12 019 76355 72802 6 023 4 039 6 067 4 277 8 014 72802 69588 7 357 5 024 5 057 5 285 7 360 69588 66640 7 013 8 018 3 101 6 292 7 348 66640 63915 8 018 9 002 4 007 5 330 6 345 63915 61284 6 354 9 347 7 348 8 336 8 337 61284 58555 9 347 12 344 8 349 10 332 11 336 58555 55744 17 341 18 347 13 348 14 321 19 322 55744 53074 21 331 22 338 17 341 15 317 24 312 53074 50663 23 329 26 334 23 339 19 336 28 323 50663 48488 23 327 29 325 30 333 28 340 32 330 48488 46500 24 320 29 319 38 326 35 339 37 339 46500 44670 23 305 30 315 36 323 41 337 42 340 44670 42979 20 289 29 304 28 325 42 331 48 338 42979 41406 17 294 20 275 24 303 30 329 60 340 41406 39930 14 305 14 263 20 267 25 327 57 339 39930 38535 13 318 10 268 16 264 23 311 41 334 38535 37186 13 326 10 283 14 266 14 302 26 329 37186 35812 16 318 12 292 11 264 11 306 23 330 35812 34382 18 304 15 282 10 251 8 294 22 331 34382 32898 17 295 17 269 10 246 9 293 18 328 32898 31346 17 290 19 267 11 250 11 315 18 321 31346 29712 19 292 18 279 11 262 12 311 18 317 29712 27998 19 293 17 287 10 273 13 300 19 316 27998 26201 17 292 16 287 13 276 13 296 18 317 26201 24323 15 293 14 289 16 273 13 293 17 321 24323 22367 13 293 12 284 16 264 15 294 16 321 22367 20329 11 289 10 262 13 254 15 286 13 315 20329 18205 8 286 9 241 9 251 11 274 10 301 18205 16043 8 276 7 245 5 252 7 267 7 271 16043 13962 9 277 6 271 3 245 2 248 6 248 13962 12076 9 280 9 291 1 266 2 264 9 275 12076 10409 10 288 12 295 5 316 11 285 12 285 10409 8928 11 314 15 303 12 314 12 283 11 292 8928 7607 17 324 17 308 13*295 11 283 11 294 7607 6431 17 326 15 310 12*285 9 280 10 293 6431 5386 16 329 12 312 8 261 6 274 8 286 5386 4464 14 338 8 310 6 248 4 270 5 269 4464 3649 9 358 5 289 5 243 3 265 4 227 3649 2920 6 015 5 259 5 239 2 259 5 184 2920 2276 4 348 4*253 4 235 2 254 7 162 2276 1738 5 322 3*253 3 232 1 246 8 151 1738 1325 6 310 2 261 3 230 1 237 8 145 1325 1042 7 284 1 271 3 230 1 229 8 141 1042 870 5 262 1 274 3 229 1 223 6*137 870 771 3*244 1 284 2 229 1*226 4*136 771 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography