DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 06/23 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0659z - - 0959z - - 1334z - - 1603z - - 1900z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 65.1 - - 67.1 - - 70.2 - - 74.7 - - 71.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 4 - - 28 - - 94 - - 167 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 77 - - 77 - - 1153 - - 1785 - - 77 BL Depth Hcrit 769 - - 769 - - 769 - - 1525 - - 770 Hcrit BL Top 786 - - 786 - - 1862 - - 2494 - - 786 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1689 - - 2224 - - 1599 - - 1069 - - 2673 Hgt.Variab. W* 28 - - 54 - - 201 - - 276 - - 23 W* B/S 1 - - 3 - - 5 - - 12 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 4 - - 7 - - 4 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 047 - - 074 - - 042 - - 029 - - 100 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 2 - - 1 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - -1 - - 2 - - -3 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 0 - - -461 - - 213 - - -536 - - -1942 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 786 - - 1248 - - 1649 - - 3030 - - 2728 sfcLCL ODpotential -264 - - -688 - - -75 - - -2709 - - -4970 ODpotential blCL 1050 - - 1474 - - 1937 - - 5203 - - 5756 blCL maxRH 100 - - 100 - - 100 - - 88 - - 82 maxRH CAPE 130 - - 150 - - 280 - - 310 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 65.1 - - 67.1 - - 70.2 - - 74.7 - - 71.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 64.3 - - 64.0 - - 65.2 - - 63.8 - - 61.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 64.7 - - 66.4 - - 68.9 - - 73.1 - - 71.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 64.2 - - 63.6 - - 64.6 - - 63.2 - - 61.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 4 - - 28 - - 94 - - 167 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 77 - - 77 - - 1153 - - 1785 - - 77 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 101 - - 102 - - 101 - - 51 - - 29 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 13 - - 13 - - 13 - - 13 - - 12 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98706 28 083 34 088 29 092 32 087 29 071 98706 91205 25 077 31 081 26 099 25 090 29 083 91205 85443 23 073 29 079 28 099 19 095 22 087 85443 80671 22 075 27 078 29 091 19 106 13 070 80671 76575 22 084 22 081 25 085 19 100 15 072 76575 72980 23 087 21 084 20 089 15 091 17 072 72980 69740 22 088 19 082 20 099 16 100 15 083 69740 66762 19 081 15 093 22 095 13 104 10 098 66762 64000 14 073 14 100 15 091 11 105 6 098 64000 61312 10 090 12 111 7 127 7 103 6 109 61312 58507 9 104 6 150 5 195 4 158 5 234 58507 55608 3 036 7 163 8 212 4 268 8 244 55608 52853 12 310 11 286 16 286 25 294 16 323 52853 50376 17 293 16 246 33 255 36 284 34 303 50376 48162 9 276 28 304 34 282 46 280 47 290 48162 46161 34 327 35 299 31 288 48 291 50 295 46161 44323 61 310 48 313 56 305 59 305 60 302 44323 42618 62 304 70 309 66 301 67 305 65 303 42618 41025 59 302 73 300 66 297 67 301 65 302 41025 39532 58 298 73 289 64 298 66 299 61 300 39532 38127 58 295 66 282 64 300 63 299 56 301 38127 36770 56 297 64 292 65 304 60 302 56 303 36770 35392 62 306 73 298 63 304 61 305 57 308 35392 33967 70 304 79 297 60 305 61 306 56 310 33967 32495 64 300 82 299 58 308 56 306 53 310 32495 30959 56 297 79 299 56 310 49 308 47 309 30959 29345 50 296 69 301 55 310 47 313 44 312 29345 27651 45 301 52 311 52 312 47 318 43 319 27651 25875 39 304 41 313 47 318 46 327 42 325 25875 24020 32 313 33 300 41 321 44 334 41 328 24020 22090 22 320 32 298 33 314 41 335 40 331 22090 20082 23 322 31 305 33 308 38 334 39 333 20082 17991 27 319 33 316 30 305 34 331 35 339 17991 15860 23 317 29 326 27 313 30 336 30 347 15860 13807 15 327 23 317 21 323 25 343 24 354 13807 11937 16 331 21 313 17 321 20 343 21 348 11937 10277 19 319 20 321 16 340 19 346 16 342 10277 8807 18 319 16 328 14 352 18 346 12 348 8807 7501 14 340 10 345 16 355 17 347 12 344 7501 6340 13 347 11 004 19 351 17 346 15 335 6340 5310 11 339 12 009 18 344 16 348 15 335 5310 4401 4 002 8 017 16 341 14 355 12 343 4401 3601 10 083 6 074 10 349 11 007 7 000 3601 2887 12 080 8 086 6 021 5*018 4 075 2887 2258 12 069 8 083 7*034 4*027 5 098 2258 1732 11 060 7 077 8*040 4 028 6 100 1732 1329 10 056 6 074 8 042 4 030 6 100 1329 1051 8 050 5 074 8 042 4 029 6 100 1051 883 6*048 5*073 7 043 4 029 5 100 883 786 4*047 4*074 6 044 3 029 4*100 786 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography