DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 03/27 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0650z - - 0955z - - 1326z - - 1554z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 44.6 - - 47.4 - - 47.3 - - 48.4 - - 48.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -4 - - 29 - - 14 - - 21 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 75 - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth Hcrit 768 - - 768 - - 768 - - 768 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top 784 - - 784 - - 784 - - 784 - - 784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 754 - - 958 - - 1230 - - 1096 - - 1170 Hgt.Variab. W* 12 - - 54 - - 43 - - 48 - - 15 W* B/S 0 - - 2 - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 4 - - 6 - - 5 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 153 - - 141 - - 137 - - 117 - - 161 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -2 - - -2 - - -2 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -100 - - -269 - - -369 - - -597 - - -388 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 884 - - 1053 - - 1153 - - 1381 - - 1172 sfcLCL ODpotential -7722 - - -437 - - -559 - - -6942 - - -5112 ODpotential blCL 8506 - - 1221 - - 1343 - - 7726 - - 5896 blCL maxRH 100 - - 100 - - 100 - - 95 - - 99 maxRH CAPE 50 - - 110 - - 120 - - 110 - - 10 CAPE Temp@2m 44.6 - - 47.4 - - 47.3 - - 48.4 - - 48.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 43.6 - - 45.6 - - 45.2 - - 45.2 - - 46.3 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 44.5 - - 46.8 - - 46.8 - - 47.8 - - 48.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 43.5 - - 45.3 - - 44.9 - - 45.0 - - 46.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -4 - - 29 - - 14 - - 21 - - -5 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 75 - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 - - 75 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 101 - - 101 - - 101 - - 81 - - 96 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 7 - - 6 - - 6 - - 7 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97082 6 267 10 257 8 272 17 239 18 294 97082 89785 8 269 1 355 5 184 20 266 14 301 89785 84263 10 316 4 060 6 189 11 267 10 307 84263 79688 5 332 4 063 8 243 6 269 13 307 79688 75717 6 022 2 100 5 248 6 228 12 274 75717 72201 9 299 3 304 4 287 4 230 5 236 72201 69002 17 227 11 235 12 221 8 211 7 196 69002 66043 20 215 13 237 18 209 16 223 15 222 66043 63289 18 239 25 236 29 220 29 212 29 204 63289 60621 25 237 28 233 36 217 37 221 37 221 60621 57857 34 229 40 235 39 219 48 212 50 209 57857 54976 46 222 54 231 48 228 48 216 47 200 54976 52181 56 224 64 221 62 226 54 228 45 226 52181 49639 70 229 64 217 65 223 63 233 59 235 49639 47355 78 231 68 224 73 230 83 231 72 227 47355 45291 84 232 81 231 91 233 93 224 88 225 45291 43418 90 230 95 229 103 230 100 224 102 224 43418 41706 93 226 98 226 118 228 110 225 109 220 41706 40126 88 228 94 229 123 226 115 222 115 217 40126 38656 93 239 99 236 119 225 112 219 122 216 38656 37276 111 245 111 238 118 227 104 218 121 215 37276 35944 117 240 116 234 122 227 106 223 116 217 35944 34592 108 231 116 229 126 224 111 223 118 222 34592 33192 104 227 111 229 122 223 116 222 123 225 33192 31747 104 228 105 230 111 224 117 221 117 227 31747 30246 105 231 100 229 102 226 107 222 101 228 30246 28679 102 230 97 226 97 225 93 223 86 228 28679 27037 99 229 95 224 92 223 88 223 71 222 27037 25309 93 229 92 224 88 219 85 222 71 206 25309 23499 81 227 89 225 83 212 80 220 78 193 23499 21605 76 220 79 222 80 207 75 216 76 187 21605 19620 73 220 70 214 75 210 70 213 67 192 19620 17547 62 220 65 209 71 218 64 214 58 206 17547 15447 51 212 67 202 68 210 57 213 52 219 15447 13434 51 203 63 205 64 208 55 211 53 220 13434 11604 49 196 55 212 52 210 51 212 51 220 11604 9980 41 193 48 211 42 213 37 212 36 229 9980 8542 31 208 37 207 32 216 32 222 22 247 8542 7268 27 219 26 204 24 200 22 240 16 256 7268 6137 28 222 15 208 17 197 12 250 12 259 6137 5137 29 221 6 229 6 197 5 270 8 257 5137 4257 28 218 5 271 2 250 2 300 4 224 4257 3482 26 217 8 257 2 282 1 302 6 187 3482 2791 22 220 10 236 4 213 1 283 9 192 2791 2186 18 216 10 212 7 169 3 144 12 181 2186 1683 15 190 9 182 10 148 7 132 15 169 1683 1300 13 168 8 160 10 144 7 124 14 164 1300 1036 10 159 6 145 10 141 7 121 12 161 1036 876 8 156 5 144 8 138 6 120 10 160 876 784 5*153 4*141 6*137 5*117 5*161 784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography