DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 01/18 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0659z - - 1001z - - 1335z - - 1600z - - 1900z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 20.4 - - 29.1 - - 33.1 - - 33.1 - - 26.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -20 - - 31 - - 43 - - -3 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 73 - - 74 - - 74 - - 74 - - 74 BL Depth Hcrit 766 - - 766 - - 766 - - 767 - - 766 Hcrit BL Top 782 - - 783 - - 783 - - 783 - - 783 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 133 - - 3013 - - 3968 - - 3521 - - 592 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 56 - - 62 - - 21 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 8 - - 7 - - 4 - - 1 BL Wind Direction 220 - - 261 - - 280 - - 275 - - 358 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -966 - - -1782 - - -2244 - - -1833 - - -898 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 1748 - - 2565 - - 3027 - - 2616 - - 1681 sfcLCL ODpotential -9463 - - -2110 - - -2301 - - -2207 - - -11184 ODpotential blCL 10245 - - 2893 - - 3084 - - 2990 - - 11967 blCL maxRH 96 - - 91 - - 89 - - 88 - - 70 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 20.4 - - 29.1 - - 33.1 - - 33.1 - - 26.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 15.8 - - 20.9 - - 22.8 - - 24.7 - - 22.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 22.8 - - 28.6 - - 32.3 - - 33.2 - - 30.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 15.8 - - 19.8 - - 21.7 - - 23.6 - - 23.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -20 - - 31 - - 43 - - -3 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 73 - - 74 - - 74 - - 74 - - 74 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 82 - - 65 - - 55 - - 52 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 2 - - 3 - - 3 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96195 27 265 34 271 18 275 19 238 22 264 96195 89066 20 262 21 254 16 264 20 254 20 271 89066 83495 20 255 21 236 23 242 24 241 24 240 83495 78835 18 243 21 206 22 254 26 257 28 256 78835 74844 24 256 26 243 29 248 29 248 34 246 74844 71322 35 254 26 248 19 215 24 213 31 225 71322 68065 29 241 17 254 8 278 13 272 16 251 68065 65028 24 248 43 276 48 276 48 274 43 276 65028 62243 38 262 53 253 58 257 53 258 54 269 62243 59573 52 258 52 235 51 245 49 251 51 268 59573 56774 56 231 41 233 43 244 49 253 53 266 56774 53850 49 212 32 243 48 255 51 257 59 261 53850 51055 24 217 55 274 56 264 60 269 63 261 51055 48542 63 283 75 275 66 273 70 271 62 264 48542 46291 88 278 83 276 75 276 72 275 66 269 46291 44255 90 275 88 278 80 277 77 279 79 270 44255 42403 88 279 92 278 83 277 86 277 85 271 42403 40709 89 283 95 276 87 277 92 273 86 273 40709 39145 95 283 96 277 94 277 94 272 86 276 39145 37695 98 280 98 278 99 278 96 276 92 279 37695 36345 93 278 101 280 107 280 101 280 106 281 36345 35047 89 282 103 282 115 282 104 283 112 281 35047 33730 91 286 103 284 115 283 107 283 104 280 33730 32363 91 285 101 285 111 284 110 283 98 280 32363 30949 86 284 100 284 109 284 110 284 99 280 30949 29472 84 285 98 281 105 285 110 288 99 280 29472 27919 85 289 96 279 101 286 99 287 97 282 27919 26292 89 291 93 279 92 287 87 282 90 280 26292 24593 93 290 88 283 86 288 80 285 82 280 24593 22820 94 288 84 288 80 288 78 287 74 281 22820 20972 95 292 83 294 73 287 71 285 63 278 20972 19042 87 296 80 297 66 289 62 288 54 280 19042 17028 74 293 72 300 59 295 55 291 54 279 17028 14978 66 289 62 300 53 297 49 289 46 276 14978 13005 58 290 54 300 47 299 44 288 35 274 13005 11211 50 294 47 301 40 302 38 290 29 277 11211 9623 48 297 42 303 35 304 33 293 26 283 9623 8225 48 298 39 305 32 305 28 298 24 290 8225 6993 46 300 36 306 30 305 25 302 21 293 6993 5905 42 304 33 306 28 302 22 300 17 289 5905 4948 40 303 31 304 23 294 18 288 14 270 4948 4109 38 300 30 298 19 283 14 273 13 249 4109 3371 34 298 28 292 16 279 12 267 13 241 3371 2714 31 296 24 286 15 279 11 268 11 246 2714 2134 26 294 21 281 14 279 11 270 9 259 2134 1651 20 290 17 274 13 280 10 271 6 276 1651 1280 14 279 14 269 13 280 9 274 5 298 1280 1026 10 259 12 265 11 280 8 275 4 320 1026 871 7 239 11*263 10*280 6*274 2*339 871 783 4*220 8*261 7*280 4*275 1*358 783 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography