DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 05/18 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0656z - - 1009z - - 1333z - - 1558z - - 1858z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 67.5 - - 74.4 - - 81.2 - - 84.4 - - 77.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 23 - - 135 - - 149 - - 32 - - -28 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 61 - - 2348 - - 3866 - - 62 - - 62 BL Depth Hcrit 754 - - 1852 - - 3017 - - 755 - - 754 Hcrit BL Top 770 - - 3057 - - 4575 - - 771 - - 771 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1423 - - 1315 - - 3395 - - 9991 - - 2330 Hgt.Variab. W* 48 - - 288 - - 356 - - 60 - - 24 W* B/S 3 - - 20 - - 13 - - 6 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 3 - - 5 - - 2 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 358 - - 008 - - 252 - - 240 - - 152 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 6 - - 11 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 1 - - -5 - - 3 - - 0 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -794 - - 93 - - 262 - - -4318 - - -1875 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 1564 - - 2964 - - 4313 - - 5089 - - 2646 sfcLCL ODpotential -2783 - - -2202 - - -596 - - -4864 - - -3770 ODpotential blCL 3553 - - 5259 - - 5171 - - 5635 - - 4541 blCL maxRH 89 - - 98 - - 87 - - 93 - - 79 maxRH CAPE 200 - - 430 - - 1270 - - 1610 - - 1980 CAPE Temp@2m 67.5 - - 74.4 - - 81.2 - - 84.4 - - 77.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 63.1 - - 63.8 - - 64.8 - - 64.6 - - 67.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 66.8 - - 73.2 - - 79.8 - - 83.6 - - 77.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 62.6 - - 62.9 - - 63.3 - - 62.8 - - 67.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 23 - - 135 - - 149 - - 32 - - -28 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 61 - - 2348 - - 3866 - - 62 - - 62 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 55 - - 93 - - 46 - - 70 - - 18 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 13 - - 12 - - 12 - - 13 - - 15 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98144 25 107 18 109 14 117 14 082 13 088 98144 90691 28 094 22 097 21 106 16 091 18 085 90691 84971 29 073 24 088 28 096 17 090 23 075 84971 80258 28 074 24 086 27 088 18 086 23 066 80258 76212 22 077 22 084 24 083 18 083 21 066 76212 72623 14 070 18 080 18 083 16 087 16 076 72623 69358 7 106 14 084 12 090 12 080 15 076 69358 66345 6 089 8 074 3 044 12 079 10 077 66345 63551 5 199 7 086 7 202 4 024 7 024 63551 60862 4 348 7 354 6 315 2 029 7 013 60862 58069 10 303 6 300 12 287 9 295 8 331 58069 55179 15 309 14 307 11 295 12 293 11 312 55179 52438 19 298 23 303 16 298 17 291 18 289 52438 49996 24 302 27 299 19 295 19 291 20 281 49996 47832 32 296 31 293 25 295 25 293 22 297 47832 45889 34 285 33 282 32 292 29 288 29 304 45889 44120 34 279 30 277 35 289 26 291 27 294 44120 42487 34 275 26 270 34 284 23 298 20 288 42487 40962 31 276 22 260 30 281 23 298 16 288 40962 39522 28 284 18 254 27 276 25 296 14 287 39522 38154 27 293 14 250 27 267 25 295 14 286 38154 36823 28 299 12 248 27 259 23 291 15 286 36823 35463 29 298 12 248 25 256 23 284 15 280 35463 34045 31 293 15 251 24 256 24 276 17 272 34045 32572 36 290 20 259 24 257 25 270 20 270 32572 31033 37 292 25 266 23 258 25 264 22 273 31033 29414 34 298 27 272 23 258 23 255 23 271 29414 27715 33 301 27 277 22 258 22 251 24 262 27715 25936 34 296 28 283 21 262 20 256 24 257 25936 24079 36 296 28 293 20 269 16 260 21 258 24079 22148 38 298 28 305 17 270 13 254 18 258 22148 20135 38 295 28 305 19 281 13 259 15 251 20135 18036 34 289 28 297 20 286 18 281 13 256 18036 15896 30 286 27 291 23 277 25 280 19 270 15896 13843 28 287 27 284 27 273 28 268 25 273 13843 11984 28 283 27 278 30 277 27 269 26 271 11984 10334 29 280 28 275 31 279 23 269 24 264 10334 8867 30 280 29 277 30 280 20 269 20 258 8867 7559 29 281 29 285 27 279 18 270 15 264 7559 6393 27 284 27 288 24 276 15 271 12 277 6393 5357 23 291 23 285 18*270 14 271 9 289 5357 4442 21 302 18 286 12*263 10 269 6 291 4442 3633 20 311 10*294 8 257 7 265 3 254 3633 2908 19 315 5*312 4 248 5 259 5 184 2908 2267 18 319 3 008 3 243 4 253 9 169 2267 1733 14 327 3 023 3 239 3 249 12 164 1733 1323 9 340 3 030 2 234 3 245 13 162 1323 1040 6 351 3 035 2 233 2 240 12 160 1040 869 4 356 3 033 2 231 2 239 9*156 869 771 3*358 2 036 2 227 2*240 5*152 771 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography