DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 09/27 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0659z - - 1006z - - 1335z - - 1600z - - 1900z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 54.9 - - 71.2 - - 77.5 - - 79.0 - - 68.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -14 - - 67 - - 125 - - 8 - - -30 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 76 - - 77 - - 2351 - - 77 - - 77 BL Depth Hcrit 768 - - 769 - - 1826 - - 770 - - 769 Hcrit BL Top 785 - - 786 - - 3060 - - 786 - - 786 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 102 - - 1815 - - 1963 - - 4835 - - 183 Hgt.Variab. W* 14 - - 75 - - 283 - - 46 - - 16 W* B/S 1 - - 2 - - 4 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 7 - - 11 - - 6 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 205 - - 212 - - 204 - - 203 - - 174 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - -2 - - 4 - - -1 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2320 - - -5135 - - -4112 - - -5684 - - -2657 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3106 - - 5922 - - 7172 - - 6470 - - 3443 sfcLCL ODpotential -10784 - - -10023 - - -9569 - - -9747 - - -8304 ODpotential blCL 11569 - - 10809 - - 12629 - - 10533 - - 9090 blCL maxRH 59 - - 46 - - 70 - - 49 - - 63 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 130 - - 110 CAPE Temp@2m 54.9 - - 71.2 - - 77.5 - - 79.0 - - 68.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 44.5 - - 48.3 - - 48.9 - - 53.5 - - 56.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 57.5 - - 70.4 - - 76.3 - - 79.0 - - 70.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 43.5 - - 47.1 - - 47.7 - - 52.4 - - 55.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -14 - - 67 - - 125 - - 8 - - -30 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 76 - - 77 - - 2351 - - 77 - - 77 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 7 - - 7 - - 9 - - 10 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98222 17 260 17 287 11 275 18 257 21 265 98222 90830 12 280 12 284 12 273 15 278 13 302 90830 85164 9 319 7 357 9 286 10 278 10 311 85164 80452 7 016 8 050 2 179 6 279 10 313 80452 76380 7 346 8 039 5 113 3 253 9 345 76380 72772 7 330 6 359 1 059 5 246 8 330 72772 69495 4 319 7 335 1 217 6 274 8 305 69495 66472 12 276 9 292 6 256 7 276 7 280 66472 63659 14 249 14 298 7 312 7 302 6 306 63659 60937 12 248 18 284 17 287 16 282 17 290 60937 58126 10 261 13 269 16 264 16 266 18 268 58126 55231 28 292 17 299 13 274 14 271 13 269 55231 52476 36 278 29 293 22 286 21 280 20 282 52476 50007 34 267 32 283 29 284 25 277 20 278 50007 47796 32 270 33 280 31 278 28 278 23 283 47796 45781 35 280 34 278 29 273 30 284 29 292 45781 43930 40 283 32 279 25 275 30 287 35 296 43930 42224 42 284 30 284 23 281 31 288 36 296 42224 40645 41 282 30 289 24 285 29 285 30 295 40645 39182 40 284 33 290 24 287 24 288 26 309 39182 37817 39 283 36 285 26 284 22 313 28 317 37817 36502 34 280 36 279 25 278 25 332 28 313 36502 35162 30 280 34 277 25 278 29 335 28 308 35162 33770 26 291 33 275 26 278 24 333 27 304 33770 32325 24 295 30 273 25 277 18 328 24 300 32325 30812 24 291 26 274 23 277 16 306 21 296 30812 29218 26 288 25 282 24 277 19 284 20 299 29218 27544 30 289 28 287 25 274 21 273 19 296 27544 25791 32 290 32 289 24 271 24 269 19 282 25791 23962 33 292 33 293 23 275 25 272 22 280 23962 22062 36 299 33 292 25 282 26 278 26 280 22062 20083 35 302 33 290 27 284 25 285 27 278 20083 18016 35 306 32 296 27 283 24 280 24 275 18016 15901 34 310 31 301 25 286 24 272 23 270 15901 13855 31 318 30 296 25 285 25 273 21 273 13855 11989 23 317 26 280 26 277 27 275 20 281 11989 10327 22 287 26 268 27 272 30 274 23 290 10327 8848 20 267 26 263 25 273 32 274 28 289 8848 7532 14 242 23 252 23 275 32 275 31 284 7532 6364 12 224 18 235 23 271 28 271 31 278 6364 5331 10 212 18 221 23 261 23 263 29 268 5331 4422 9 206 18 211 20 247 18 247 24 255 4422 3619 10 208 19 210 16*228 15 234 20 244 3619 2901 11 219 19 213 14*214 14 222 20 231 2901 2265 11 239 19 213 12 204 13 214 22 219 2265 1736 14 259 17 213 12 202 12 210 23 212 1736 1330 14 249 13 212 11 201 11 207 19 204 1330 1051 12 226 11 212 10 199 10 205 14 191 1051 882 9*221 10*213 9 199 8 204 10*182 882 786 3*205 7*212 7 199 6*203 5*174 786 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography