DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 11/20 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 0956z - - 1329z - - 1559z - - 1858z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 42.9 - - 44.9 - - 45.3 - - 41.2 - - 35.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -4 - - 70 - - 93 - - 7 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 59 - - 59 - - 3669 - - 59 - - 59 BL Depth Hcrit 752 - - 752 - - 2544 - - 752 - - 751 Hcrit BL Top 768 - - 768 - - 4378 - - 768 - - 768 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1127 - - 3331 - - 2232 - - 5151 - - 3591 Hgt.Variab. W* 14 - - 67 - - 294 - - 36 - - 16 W* B/S 1 - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 9 - - 21 - - 11 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 300 - - 302 - - 294 - - 296 - - 304 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 16 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 1 - - 2 - - 6 - - 3 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -439 - - -1326 - - 1372 - - -1951 - - -1341 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 1208 - - 2094 - - 3006 - - 2719 - - 2110 sfcLCL ODpotential -2237 - - -1401 - - 613 - - -2081 - - -1894 ODpotential blCL 3005 - - 2169 - - 3765 - - 2849 - - 2662 blCL maxRH 99 - - 97 - - 100 - - 100 - - 90 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 42.9 - - 44.9 - - 45.3 - - 41.2 - - 35.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 40.5 - - 38.5 - - 34.9 - - 32.1 - - 29.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 42.7 - - 44.0 - - 44.3 - - 40.7 - - 35.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 40.1 - - 37.5 - - 33.4 - - 31.3 - - 29.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -4 - - 70 - - 93 - - 7 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 59 - - 59 - - 3669 - - 59 - - 59 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 98 - - 88 - - 100 - - 100 - - 59 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 5 - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96309 84 235 84 237 84 229 91 229 89 237 96309 88919 76 231 74 232 75 227 80 234 74 241 88919 83292 70 233 67 229 73 229 75 236 69 244 83292 78660 65 241 61 235 67 231 70 241 66 242 78660 74679 59 245 59 242 65 240 65 243 65 244 74679 71164 58 248 56 241 63 244 64 244 63 244 71164 67972 60 247 54 242 59 241 63 245 58 244 67972 65022 60 245 52 245 54 238 62 246 59 251 65022 62281 60 248 52 249 53 241 63 250 61 252 62281 59620 63 252 56 254 57 249 66 251 61 249 59620 56828 72 252 67 255 66 252 68 249 60 247 56828 53908 80 246 79 250 75 250 71 247 61 254 53908 51117 83 241 85 243 78 245 73 246 72 258 51117 48619 81 239 84 239 78 243 78 248 77 251 48619 46382 79 244 80 240 78 243 82 245 74 250 46382 44348 83 250 80 245 79 248 76 247 75 255 44348 42489 89 252 83 248 83 252 80 255 81 256 42489 40778 97 250 88 250 89 252 89 256 85 256 40778 39194 105 246 95 249 94 250 98 251 88 257 39194 37720 106 244 103 245 98 245 103 246 88 255 37720 36342 101 246 103 241 101 241 103 244 82 255 36342 35019 102 248 100 241 101 240 102 244 77 261 35019 33686 105 246 102 242 102 241 97 245 75 266 33686 32315 102 244 105 242 102 241 91 247 75 269 32315 30907 97 242 106 239 100 242 91 249 71 271 30907 29441 93 240 103 237 97 242 93 249 67 276 29441 27903 91 239 98 237 92 242 90 249 65 282 27903 26290 87 239 93 238 86 241 84 251 65 287 26290 24599 83 240 89 239 80 242 77 253 64 288 24599 22830 80 241 85 239 77 244 73 256 63 287 22830 20985 78 240 79 238 74 245 68 259 63 286 20985 19058 74 238 72 238 71 245 65 262 62 288 19058 17047 68 237 64 239 67 246 63 264 55 290 17047 14997 60 239 59 241 60 248 60 267 46 289 14997 13022 53 241 51 243 53 254 52 272 43 286 13022 11229 46 245 42 248 46 262 45 278 40 288 11229 9642 40 250 34 258 41 271 42 284 38 293 9642 8239 33 257 30 268 36 279 41 286 36 297 8239 6997 28 262 27 279 32 284 37 288 34 299 6997 5903 25 264 27 288 30 286 33 290 32 300 5903 4944 24 263 27 290 29*288 29 291 31 302 4944 4107 22 263 25 290 27*290 28 293 29 304 4107 3370 19 267 23 292 24 292 26 293 28 306 3370 2711 16 275 22 297 23 294 25 294 26 307 2711 2129 17 289 20 300 22 295 23 295 25 308 2129 1642 18 302 18 301 20 296 22 295 21 309 1642 1270 17 304 16 302 19 297 20 296 17 308 1270 1013 12 304 14 302 17 297 18 296 13 307 1013 857 9 304 12 302 15 298 15 296 9*305 857 768 4*300 9*302 11 298 11*296 5*304 768 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography