DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 11/17 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0720z - - 1009z - - 1332z - - 1600z - - 1859z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 31.9 - - 32.9 - - 42.7 - - 39.7 - - 39.0 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -1 - - 58 - - 145 - - 10 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 58 - - 58 - - 2060 - - 59 - - 59 BL Depth Hcrit 751 - - 751 - - 1627 - - 752 - - 752 Hcrit BL Top 767 - - 767 - - 2769 - - 768 - - 768 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1387 - - 1494 - - 1405 - - 2251 - - 1768 Hgt.Variab. W* 17 - - 61 - - 272 - - 36 - - 9 W* B/S 1 - - 2 - - 7 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 5 - - 8 - - 4 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 032 - - 047 - - 065 - - 048 - - 034 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 9 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - 0 - - 1 - - 1 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2525 - - -1608 - - -937 - - -1916 - - -1254 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3292 - - 2375 - - 3707 - - 2684 - - 2022 sfcLCL ODpotential -17932 - - -16542 - - -14035 - - -14824 - - -3307 ODpotential blCL 18699 - - 17309 - - 16804 - - 15592 - - 4075 blCL maxRH 100 - - 100 - - 100 - - 100 - - 101 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 31.9 - - 32.9 - - 42.7 - - 39.7 - - 39.0 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 20.6 - - 25.6 - - 29.3 - - 30.9 - - 33.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 31.5 - - 32.1 - - 41.4 - - 39.3 - - 39.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 19.8 - - 25.1 - - 28.6 - - 30.3 - - 32.4 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -1 - - 58 - - 145 - - 10 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 58 - - 58 - - 2060 - - 59 - - 59 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 101 - - 101 - - 102 - - 101 - - 102 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 2 - - 3 - - 3 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97180 23 202 28 215 23 208 27 228 25 226 97180 89895 23 201 21 209 28 196 30 217 23 239 89895 84257 18 220 21 202 26 228 28 212 26 245 84257 79546 25 242 18 217 23 226 26 226 29 242 79546 75474 29 242 20 236 22 228 24 228 32 240 75474 71871 28 253 21 242 23 226 21 220 28 239 71871 68601 30 261 21 246 25 234 24 242 28 250 68601 65601 27 256 20 240 25 236 33 253 30 248 65601 62840 23 241 19 237 24 233 32 247 26 233 62840 60176 24 243 23 245 23 238 23 233 20 221 60176 57383 28 242 28 246 25 244 24 240 21 250 57383 54476 31 238 33 237 34 240 37 244 37 248 54476 51714 32 235 35 229 40 232 44 234 41 234 51714 49245 32 233 32 226 39 224 40 225 41 227 49245 47040 30 232 29 231 35 223 35 224 42 221 47040 45046 29 235 29 239 35 228 34 223 40 216 45046 43225 29 237 30 242 34 224 33 220 36 214 43225 41547 33 239 31 242 33 220 31 221 31 205 41547 39990 39 234 33 236 32 220 27 234 23 205 39990 38540 41 224 37 224 28 217 29 246 21 229 38540 37186 50 215 44 215 25 218 29 253 26 248 37186 35884 66 208 48 213 22 226 27 261 25 245 35884 34560 65 205 43 214 18 244 25 276 17 245 34560 33181 52 208 34 219 16 265 25 287 16 251 33181 31747 32 217 27 219 16 267 23 289 20 258 31747 30245 21 229 22 221 18 251 20 290 22 265 30245 28661 18 239 20 232 19 235 16 294 21 266 28661 26996 17 249 19 243 18 230 10 273 18 259 26996 25250 16 250 17 246 16 231 13 239 10 244 25250 23425 15 242 16 235 16 230 16 232 9 230 23425 21525 14 245 17 222 17 225 16 231 13 233 21525 19544 13 243 17 218 17 218 16 229 14 232 19544 17477 12 229 16 214 16 219 14 225 12 224 17477 15367 9 219 13 209 14 217 11 218 11 215 15367 13335 7 206 9 200 12 208 11 204 12 213 13335 11489 7 204 7 196 11 211 12 203 11 211 11489 9851 6 207 5 200 9 223 10 215 10 211 9851 8401 5 196 2 200 7 226 8 228 10 216 8401 7117 8 160 6 143 7 199 6 223 10 224 7117 5987 7 151 8 145 7 155 6 204 10 227 5987 5002 9 159 7 155 11 110 8 140 7 181 5002 4148 14 126 14 116 16 099 15 108 14 121 4148 3397 19 104 19 094 16*094 14 100 15 112 3397 2727 20 086 18 086 13*083 11 079 12 093 2727 2138 17 074 15 075 8 064 9 058 10 069 2138 1649 11 057 9 054 7 060 8 054 10 062 1649 1273 8 044 8 051 7 058 7 053 9 060 1273 1015 6 038 7 049 6 055 7 050 6 055 1015 858 5 035 6 048 5 055 6 050 4*046 858 768 3*032 5*047 5 055 4*048 2*034 768 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography