DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 05/20 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0656z - - 0957z - - 1329z - - 1559z - - 1858z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 68.5 - - 77.5 - - 81.8 - - 79.4 - - 75.7 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 7 - - 99 - - 67 - - -14 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 74 - - 3076 - - 4018 - - 76 - - 75 BL Depth Hcrit 767 - - 2247 - - 2701 - - 768 - - 768 Hcrit BL Top 783 - - 3785 - - 4727 - - 785 - - 784 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1007 - - 1663 - - 3158 - - 6576 - - 4434 Hgt.Variab. W* 38 - - 294 - - 292 - - 39 - - 14 W* B/S 2 - - 5 - - 6 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 11 - - 9 - - 6 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 250 - - 269 - - 263 - - 306 - - 346 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 10 - - 5 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 1 - - 6 - - 3 - - 3 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -935 - - 220 - - 455 - - -2525 - - -1255 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 1719 - - 3565 - - 4273 - - 3310 - - 2039 sfcLCL ODpotential -4035 - - -1931 - - -847 - - -3312 - - -2469 ODpotential blCL 4818 - - 5716 - - 5574 - - 4097 - - 3253 blCL maxRH 80 - - 83 - - 84 - - 80 - - 86 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 180 - - 770 - - 1270 - - 1340 CAPE Temp@2m 68.5 - - 77.5 - - 81.8 - - 79.4 - - 75.7 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 63.5 - - 64.4 - - 65.6 - - 67.3 - - 69.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 68.0 - - 76.1 - - 80.7 - - 79.2 - - 75.7 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 63.0 - - 62.8 - - 63.8 - - 66.1 - - 67.7 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 7 - - 99 - - 67 - - -14 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 74 - - 3076 - - 4018 - - 76 - - 75 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 19 - - 33 - - 36 - - 21 - - 45 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 13 - - 12 - - 12 - - 14 - - 15 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98048 13 358 3 201 10 219 10 284 12 282 98048 90686 8 253 10 255 11 266 8 276 9 248 90686 85021 11 240 13 267 11 277 12 273 9 275 85021 80306 6 256 11 272 7 226 13 275 12 294 80306 76237 4 331 6 218 6 213 14 280 10 300 76237 72649 7 345 6 174 4 285 12 286 8 308 72649 69427 6 355 6 309 7 316 7 278 6 314 69427 66499 5 354 8 318 10 306 5 289 8 315 66499 63811 9 309 8 314 9 277 10 295 11 297 63811 61221 11 285 12 312 9 251 12 283 14 282 61221 58518 15 275 18 297 13 269 15 272 15 275 58518 55701 25 268 24 271 23 274 25 272 22 278 55701 52999 31 257 30 253 31 256 35 262 31 277 52999 50557 31 244 33 242 36 241 39 250 39 265 50557 48368 34 244 35 240 37 240 41 242 45 249 48368 46395 39 252 35 247 37 241 43 237 48 245 46395 44598 44 254 35 255 37 242 44 236 49 246 44598 42941 41 248 36 255 38 243 43 239 48 247 42941 41398 38 248 37 249 38 244 41 241 47 246 41398 39950 34 256 37 243 37 246 44 242 47 245 39950 38579 31 260 35 242 37 249 46 243 51 245 38579 37245 32 259 32 244 39 250 46 245 55 247 37245 35879 32 260 29 247 38 250 44 248 54 248 35879 34454 32 263 26 252 35 251 39 252 49 249 34454 32974 31 268 25 259 31 251 35 254 41 251 32974 31422 29 274 23 257 29 255 32 254 35 252 31422 29786 26 273 21 246 29 260 30 252 34 249 29786 28066 27 259 24 243 29 261 29 249 35 246 28066 26262 33 245 26 248 28 257 29 244 35 243 26262 24375 33 240 26 253 26 253 28 238 34 242 24375 22411 27 242 26 262 22 254 27 237 31 244 22411 20364 24 250 28 269 23 268 28 251 30 254 20364 18231 27 257 31 269 29 273 32 273 31 271 18231 16061 29 256 33 263 34 273 34 284 31 283 16061 13975 27 253 31 257 31 269 31 284 27 289 13975 12081 22 254 26 257 26 268 25 280 23 290 12081 10399 20 261 22 268 23 276 21 284 20 295 10399 8906 19 271 21 283 23 283 19 289 17 305 8906 7581 20 279 23 291 22 284 17 287 15 313 7581 6407 20 283 25 292 19 278 17 289 14 319 6407 5367 20 286 24 289 15*269 17 292 14 327 5367 4451 22 287 22*287 11*263 16 296 13 332 4451 3642 24 287 16*280 10 262 16 299 13 332 3642 2918 25 284 12 270 10 262 16 301 13 331 2918 2278 25 280 11 267 9 262 15 303 13 331 2278 1744 22 274 10 265 8 263 14 305 11 332 1744 1334 18 266 10 265 8 264 13 306 9 334 1334 1053 13 257 9 264 7 264 11 306 6 337 1053 882 11 256 8 263 7 263 9*306 4 339 882 784 5*250 7 263 6 264 6*306 2*346 784 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography