DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 07/18 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0655z - - 1009z - - 1332z - - 1557z - - 1857z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 65.3 - - 74.5 - - 79.9 - - 80.9 - - 75.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 11 - - 172 - - 201 - - 85 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 61 - - 2427 - - 5501 - - 6189 - - 62 BL Depth Hcrit 754 - - 2011 - - 4385 - - 4374 - - 754 Hcrit BL Top 770 - - 3136 - - 6210 - - 6898 - - 771 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 922 - - 3429 - - 1697 - - 1196 - - 6399 Hgt.Variab. W* 41 - - 313 - - 437 - - 352 - - 25 W* B/S 1 - - 5 - - 9 - - 7 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 6 - - 11 - - 9 - - 9 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 324 - - 355 - - 344 - - 340 - - 306 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 9 - - 5 - - 6 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 2 - - 3 - - 3 - - -13 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1924 - - -1576 - - -145 - - 138 - - -4019 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2694 - - 4712 - - 6355 - - 6760 - - 4790 sfcLCL ODpotential -5352 - - -2764 - - -6467 - - -5800 - - -5508 ODpotential blCL 6122 - - 5900 - - 12677 - - 12698 - - 6279 blCL maxRH 69 - - 69 - - 64 - - 61 - - 67 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 10 - - 10 - - 0 - - 10 CAPE Temp@2m 65.3 - - 74.5 - - 79.9 - - 80.9 - - 75.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 56.1 - - 56.5 - - 54.7 - - 53.9 - - 57.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 64.8 - - 73.0 - - 78.3 - - 79.9 - - 76.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 55.3 - - 55.2 - - 52.7 - - 52.1 - - 56.1 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 11 - - 172 - - 201 - - 85 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 61 - - 2427 - - 5501 - - 6189 - - 62 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 10 - - 9 - - 8 - - 8 - - 10 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99136 38 076 34 088 32 076 38 083 27 084 99136 91618 32 081 32 084 31 082 32 075 29 081 91618 85825 27 077 27 078 26 081 27 078 29 074 85825 81034 22 073 21 079 23 078 25 082 25 072 81034 76926 19 079 19 080 20 082 21 082 22 078 76926 73293 16 083 17 075 16 091 13 082 19 070 73293 69998 13 088 17 075 13 099 10 089 10 068 69998 66966 10 076 13 063 10 102 5 093 9 059 66966 64152 2 080 6 053 5 104 4 129 3 019 64152 61431 4 335 1 045 2 241 1 008 1 001 61431 58598 10 290 5 316 6 241 5 261 11 289 58598 55679 22 277 20 268 14 263 13 269 20 276 55679 52918 32 239 29 261 30 269 25 270 23 268 52918 50440 32 252 38 253 38 255 31 264 26 265 50440 48219 50 262 40 254 39 257 38 266 33 267 48219 46206 58 256 46 261 47 258 45 264 38 267 46206 44366 63 256 53 260 52 254 49 261 43 267 44366 42668 68 254 57 256 52 250 51 259 49 266 42668 41093 68 251 56 252 50 248 52 255 53 263 41093 39619 65 246 53 249 49 248 52 252 54 258 39619 38230 61 246 51 249 48 248 52 252 54 257 38230 36882 56 247 50 252 48 249 52 253 54 259 36882 35509 50 251 51 254 49 251 53 255 53 261 35509 34081 47 257 51 257 49 254 52 257 52 261 34081 32601 48 259 51 258 50 258 52 259 51 263 32601 31051 49 259 50 259 50 262 52 262 50 265 31051 29421 48 261 48 260 50 263 52 266 49 268 29421 27709 47 266 46 262 48 263 51 268 47 273 27709 25918 47 272 45 268 46 265 49 269 42 276 25918 24052 46 278 41 272 43 270 44 270 35 279 24052 22115 32 277 34 266 39 272 39 272 30 285 22115 20103 27 265 31 256 34 273 33 281 25 297 20103 18011 31 267 30 270 28 283 27 292 20 302 18011 15875 29 276 24 287 21 299 19 303 15 302 15875 13812 26 277 18 302 17 310 15 305 12 302 13812 11935 24 279 14 310 15 319 12 309 11 307 11935 10268 23 280 14 311 13 331 10 316 11 308 10268 8796 22 285 16 318 11 346 7 355 6 335 8796 7495 21 300 16 336 11 354 9*003 8 023 7495 6340 18 320 16 353 11*353 9*002 9 021 6340 5314 16 340 14 357 11*352 10 349 9 357 5314 4408 18 351 15 001 10 348 10 343 10 342 4408 3608 18 354 16*001 10 345 10 338 11 334 3608 2890 19 357 15*001 9 343 9 334 11 328 2890 2255 22 357 12 356 9 341 9 332 11 323 2255 1725 21 348 11 354 8 340 9 330 11 320 1725 1318 17 338 10 353 8 339 8 329 10 317 1318 1038 12 328 9 352 8 338 8 328 9 314 1038 868 10*326 8 352 7 338 7 328 6*310 868 771 6*324 6 352 6 337 6 327 4*306 771 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography