DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 08/03 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0656z - - 0958z - - 1332z - - 1559z - - 1859z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 72.5 - - 80.7 - - 84.5 - - 81.2 - - 77.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 15 - - 207 - - 99 - - 3 - - -37 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 61 - - 2590 - - 4348 - - 62 - - 62 BL Depth Hcrit 754 - - 2186 - - 3241 - - 755 - - 755 Hcrit BL Top 770 - - 3299 - - 5057 - - 771 - - 771 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1796 - - 1609 - - 3094 - - 6351 - - 4247 Hgt.Variab. W* 41 - - 335 - - 344 - - 39 - - 29 W* B/S 11 - - 45 - - 4 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 1 - - 1 - - 15 - - 5 - - 7 BL Wind Direction 113 - - 159 - - 190 - - 169 - - 158 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 6 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - 2 - - 31 - - -2 - - -3 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2264 - - -2061 - - 447 - - -2094 - - -1522 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3034 - - 5361 - - 4610 - - 2865 - - 2293 sfcLCL ODpotential -5421 - - -4805 - - -599 - - -2977 - - -2637 ODpotential blCL 6191 - - 8104 - - 5656 - - 3748 - - 3408 blCL maxRH 87 - - 90 - - 100 - - 92 - - 76 maxRH CAPE 40 - - 10 - - 1000 - - 1900 - - 1270 CAPE Temp@2m 72.5 - - 80.7 - - 84.5 - - 81.2 - - 77.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 61.8 - - 59.9 - - 66.8 - - 70.9 - - 70.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 72.0 - - 79.2 - - 83.2 - - 81.1 - - 78.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 61.4 - - 59.3 - - 64.8 - - 69.9 - - 69.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 15 - - 207 - - 99 - - 3 - - -37 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 61 - - 2590 - - 4348 - - 62 - - 62 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 49 - - 61 - - 101 - - 70 - - 6 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 12 - - 11 - - 13 - - 16 - - 16 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99124 41 079 39 088 33 084 40 075 32 090 99124 91647 30 075 35 081 31 078 36 076 32 081 91647 85886 26 077 29 080 29 078 33 077 28 073 85886 81123 24 084 24 083 24 088 25 077 25 067 81123 77034 22 088 21 089 19 092 18 080 22 068 77034 73428 19 095 18 098 16 099 14 090 18 082 73428 70170 14 102 14 099 16 102 14 103 15 098 70170 67189 13 116 12 125 11 125 12 108 11 116 67189 64432 11 129 10 116 13 140 12 145 10 153 64432 61763 7 150 10 146 15 155 14 168 11 164 61763 58987 9 198 9 191 15 167 19 195 16 193 58987 56105 20 211 26 213 21 222 19 210 15 198 56105 53360 31 206 36 201 39 208 35 209 32 216 53360 50903 34 215 31 207 35 200 43 191 46 199 50903 48693 47 230 45 228 50 233 38 210 39 216 48693 46683 64 230 64 229 74 230 70 231 67 230 46683 44851 70 229 78 226 83 223 89 227 84 227 44851 43156 72 226 81 226 86 221 91 223 85 219 43156 41568 68 224 80 225 87 221 91 219 94 208 41568 40069 66 226 71 221 84 220 93 214 90 207 40069 38646 66 225 65 220 80 219 92 215 86 208 38646 37264 64 220 61 215 76 217 87 217 83 204 37264 35857 62 215 60 208 74 211 76 212 84 201 35857 34395 60 210 61 204 75 207 62 196 82 204 34395 32884 60 207 61 206 72 207 56 192 70 209 32884 31314 58 206 57 206 57 206 50 190 51 207 31314 29665 52 206 53 207 47 205 49 196 46 187 29665 27932 44 204 50 208 47 205 48 207 44 186 27932 26119 41 205 46 206 40 206 43 209 41 188 26119 24231 42 207 45 206 34 207 40 209 36 188 24231 22273 44 209 45 209 36 210 40 215 29 197 22273 20240 47 212 45 216 39 214 38 221 30 217 20240 18124 44 218 44 222 35 213 37 219 27 211 18124 15969 41 224 40 222 31 210 33 206 25 215 15969 13899 43 222 38 219 30 210 30 199 21 206 13899 12022 41 222 37 222 28 216 26 199 21 198 12022 10356 36 229 33 226 24 221 22 216 20 191 10356 8874 32 234 30 228 22 220 21 218 21 185 8874 7555 24 229 26 228 21 213 20 212 21 180 7555 6385 21 221 23 221 17 201 19 207 22 178 6385 5349 18 223 20 213 15*192 19 203 21 178 5349 4436 13 230 17 207 15*193 18 200 21 178 4436 3630 8 240 11*203 16 193 17 196 21 175 3630 2908 5 271 4*193 16 191 16 190 21 171 2908 2268 5 286 2 160 15 190 15 183 21 169 2268 1734 4 268 1 142 15 188 14 179 20 167 1734 1323 2 205 1 122 14 187 12 176 18 165 1323 1041 1 149 1 100 14 186 10 173 15 162 1041 869 1 117 1 094 12 186 8 171 12 161 869 771 1*113 1 093 10 186 5*169 7*158 771 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography