DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 01/21 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0656z - - 0956z - - 1331z - - 1559z - - 1858z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 6.6 - - 9.5 - - 14.5 - - 15.2 - - 12.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -13 - - 175 - - 261 - - 108 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 56 - - 2427 - - 2763 - - 57 - - 57 BL Depth Hcrit 749 - - 1976 - - 2383 - - 750 - - 750 Hcrit BL Top 765 - - 3136 - - 3472 - - 766 - - 766 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 3494 - - 1049 - - 860 - - 3475 - - 2518 Hgt.Variab. W* 17 - - 305 - - 364 - - 75 - - 19 W* B/S 0 - - 2 - - 2 - - 1 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 12 - - 31 - - 31 - - 12 - - 9 BL Wind Direction 302 - - 311 - - 315 - - 313 - - 291 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 26 - - 26 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 4 - - 19 - - 13 - - 3 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -2058 - - 18 - - 147 - - -2559 - - -2201 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2824 - - 3118 - - 3325 - - 3325 - - 2967 sfcLCL ODpotential -2422 - - -11213 - - -11098 - - -2758 - - -14548 ODpotential blCL 3187 - - 14349 - - 14570 - - 3524 - - 15314 blCL maxRH 80 - - 71 - - 71 - - 71 - - 67 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 6.6 - - 9.5 - - 14.5 - - 15.2 - - 12.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m -2.7 - - -1.1 - - 2.9 - - 3.7 - - 2.7 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 6.3 - - 8.4 - - 13.1 - - 14.3 - - 12.2 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot -3.3 - - -2.8 - - 0.9 - - 2.2 - - 1.9 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -13 - - 175 - - 261 - - 108 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 56 - - 2427 - - 2763 - - 57 - - 57 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 20 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95408 47 241 41 240 54 233 70 240 69 253 95408 88188 51 255 42 249 42 240 47 239 40 260 88188 82739 42 251 35 238 31 240 42 256 39 270 82739 78259 34 243 35 244 36 243 47 250 40 258 78259 74444 39 258 43 245 43 241 40 240 26 242 74444 71040 32 250 35 223 27 224 19 229 21 270 71040 67914 22 239 18 204 14 232 33 275 43 283 67914 65047 22 256 29 271 42 275 50 273 49 281 65047 62375 42 265 57 270 54 268 47 267 46 275 62375 59745 62 263 64 263 47 256 42 258 45 265 59745 56951 68 252 52 254 38 252 39 260 45 264 56951 54002 55 247 39 243 36 268 45 274 45 274 54002 51144 41 246 37 258 47 282 59 282 57 284 51144 48547 34 250 45 273 61 283 73 282 74 281 48547 46220 34 266 52 277 69 280 82 278 86 276 46220 44122 43 278 58 280 71 280 82 276 86 278 44122 42214 56 283 65 282 73 282 80 280 89 285 42214 40472 64 284 71 282 77 284 86 284 98 288 40472 38871 68 284 74 282 82 286 90 286 105 290 38871 37390 71 283 77 284 86 288 94 292 117 295 37390 36008 73 283 79 286 93 291 108 298 131 299 36008 34682 76 284 82 290 101 294 128 298 144 300 34682 33341 81 284 88 292 111 296 136 296 149 298 33341 31953 83 283 94 293 120 296 129 295 142 296 31953 30527 81 282 99 295 125 295 128 296 127 298 30527 29053 79 284 106 297 125 295 128 296 120 299 29053 27515 81 288 110 298 123 297 126 297 112 295 27515 25898 85 293 110 300 118 299 126 299 105 297 25898 24199 88 295 107 302 111 300 125 301 106 301 24199 22417 87 296 100 303 102 300 112 300 106 304 22417 20562 83 298 94 304 94 301 95 301 95 304 20562 18636 79 300 90 307 86 302 84 305 81 303 18636 16639 76 302 86 310 79 304 78 306 70 305 16639 14610 70 304 81 312 73 306 70 307 65 309 14610 12662 63 307 74 314 67 310 63 310 59 312 12662 10898 58 309 64 315 62 314 57 313 53 315 10898 9341 54 311 55 319 57 318 51 318 47 320 9341 7967 52 312 50 323 52 323 46 322 42 325 7967 6755 51 314 48 326 48 329 42 328 37 331 6755 5692 51 314 49 325 48 331 41 331 35 336 5692 4761 51 313 50 320 47 327 40 328 35 335 4761 3950 48 311 49 316 45*322 38 323 36 326 3950 3241 44 309 46*314 40*317 33 318 34 314 3241 2612 40 308 41*312 36 316 30 316 31 304 2612 2057 36 306 37 311 33 315 28 315 27 299 2057 1596 31 305 33 311 29 315 25 315 24 297 1596 1242 26 304 28 311 26 315 22 314 20 294 1242 998 22 303 24 311 22 315 19 314 16 293 998 850 18 303 20 311 19 315 16 314 13 292 850 766 12*302 15 311 14 315 12*313 9*291 766 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography