DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 07/20 FrontRoyal_VA 709ft pt33650@38.996,-78.097,836ft BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.4 degF SPONSORED BY: Skyline Soaring Club RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0658z - - 1008z - - 1332z - - 1558z - - 1858z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 80.6 - - 90.7 - - 97.5 - - 100.1 - - 93.2 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 26 - - 208 - - 296 - - 168 - - -59 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 62 - - 4124 - - 7164 - - 8623 - - 63 BL Depth Hcrit 755 - - 3329 - - 5849 - - 6650 - - 755 Hcrit BL Top 771 - - 4833 - - 7873 - - 9332 - - 772 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1062 - - 1954 - - 1156 - - 1866 - - 5729 Hgt.Variab. W* 50 - - 394 - - 530 - - 471 - - 31 W* B/S 2 - - 11 - - 16 - - 7 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 4 - - 6 - - 6 - - 12 - - 9 BL Wind Direction 260 - - 299 - - 244 - - 252 - - 302 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 8 - - 13 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - 1 - - -2 - - 14 - - 4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -1807 - - -336 - - 400 - - 699 - - -6064 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2578 - - 5170 - - 7473 - - 8633 - - 6837 sfcLCL ODpotential -5020 - - -2801 - - -2658 - - -4 - - -7884 ODpotential blCL 5791 - - 7634 - - 10531 - - 9336 - - 8656 blCL maxRH 76 - - 80 - - 81 - - 79 - - 63 maxRH CAPE 1660 - - 1780 - - 1500 - - 1260 - - 1000 CAPE Temp@2m 80.6 - - 90.7 - - 97.5 - - 100.1 - - 93.2 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 71.6 - - 70.4 - - 67.1 - - 64.7 - - 65.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 80.1 - - 89.0 - - 95.3 - - 98.5 - - 93.1 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 71.2 - - 69.8 - - 66.4 - - 64.0 - - 65.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 26 - - 208 - - 296 - - 168 - - -59 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 62 - - 4124 - - 7164 - - 8623 - - 63 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 3 - - 22 - - 25 - - 17 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 17 - - 15 - - 13 - - 12 - - 14 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 99113 40 073 38 100 28 091 39 099 30 075 99113 91594 31 080 26 090 26 090 34 090 29 084 91594 85794 28 086 23 088 26 091 30 077 32 094 85794 81024 28 087 24 082 23 089 26 069 32 091 81024 76952 27 083 23 079 22 087 20 076 28 079 76952 73368 26 080 23 089 20 079 17 082 21 067 73368 70123 23 078 24 092 18 083 13 073 15 052 70123 67139 21 066 21 086 17 094 11 077 8 035 67139 64374 15 040 17 066 19 108 10 087 3 048 64374 61694 7 028 14 028 15 104 10 104 3 071 61694 58898 4 359 11 356 6 037 8 106 2 050 58898 56033 8 332 5 307 19 332 10 070 6 119 56033 53368 5 333 5 219 22 311 14 003 17 074 53368 51011 4 077 8 134 7 233 19 350 19 038 51011 48882 5 073 11 094 12 135 7 213 5 349 48882 46932 4 038 5 074 13 114 10 171 7 226 46932 45134 2 013 3 172 6 114 7 173 8 210 45134 43455 0 351 6 174 4 139 6 178 9 194 43455 41873 2 131 6 166 6 153 7 169 11 178 41873 40377 4 143 6 166 9 168 10 175 11 173 40377 38957 7 161 8 175 12 174 11 188 9 177 38957 37577 8 178 9 180 12 178 11 205 6 204 37577 36171 7 207 11 189 11 190 12 217 6 233 36171 34707 2 342 12 200 12 199 13 222 9 235 34707 33192 3 341 10 204 12 198 12 227 10 223 33192 31608 3 235 10 196 12 192 12 238 10 220 31608 29944 5 186 9 202 9 213 12 248 10 221 29944 28198 6 208 11 247 10 265 13 268 9 261 28198 26374 9 237 14 265 12 282 17 282 13 272 26374 24483 9 244 14 269 13 294 14 294 10 259 24483 22527 11 245 13 290 13 311 10 313 6 268 22527 20493 13 262 12 298 13 310 11 312 10 316 20493 18371 15 284 13 299 16 303 18 315 16 317 18371 16207 17 292 16 294 23 299 22 317 16 318 16207 14124 16 292 23 295 25 300 23 310 17 301 14124 12229 14 292 24 289 23 292 21 299 16 287 12229 10545 16 288 23 277 21 279 19*287 14 261 10545 9046 19 279 20 270 16*269 17*278 13 253 9046 7709 16 274 13 274 10*263 15 269 12 259 7709 6518 9 275 8 279 8 260 14 260 14 276 6518 5461 4 289 7*297 7 248 12 252 18 290 5461 4528 5 322 8*301 6 242 12 245 22 297 4528 3702 12 321 8 302 6 237 11 241 23 299 3702 2962 18 317 7 300 5 231 10 237 23 301 2962 2306 19 311 6 299 5 227 10 234 23 301 2306 1758 16 304 6 297 5 223 10 230 22 302 1758 1338 11 288 5 296 4 220 9 229 21 302 1338 1048 7 270 5 296 4 220 9 229 18 302 1048 873 5 264 4 295 4 219 8 228 14*303 873 772 4*260 4 295 3 217 7 227 9*302 772 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography