DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 08/03 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1000z - - 1333z - - 1601z - - 1901z - - 2157z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 91.6 - - 102.3 - - 107.7 - - 107.7 - - 98.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 105 - - 448 - - 513 - - 212 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1382 - - 7799 - - 13315 - - 12872 - - 57 BL Depth Hcrit 2140 - - 7941 - - 12542 - - 11538 - - 2141 Hcrit BL Top 3482 - - 9899 - - 15415 - - 14972 - - 2157 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1903 - - 4702 - - 2440 - - 3338 - - 9151 Hgt.Variab. W* 215 - - 620 - - 776 - - 571 - - 6 W* B/S 11 - - 14 - - 15 - - 11 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 3 - - 8 - - 9 - - 9 - - 3 BL Wind Direction 166 - - 268 - - 268 - - 275 - - 277 Direction Wind Shear 2 - - 8 - - 8 - - 9 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - 6 - - 5 - - -11 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -5654 - - -1835 - - 1595 - - -204 - - -9671 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 9136 - - 11734 - - 13821 - - 15177 - - 11828 sfcLCL ODpotential -9370 - - -3582 - - -357 - - -1084 - - -11343 ODpotential blCL 12852 - - 13481 - - 15772 - - 16056 - - 13500 blCL maxRH 47 - - 53 - - 59 - - 88 - - 91 maxRH CAPE 940 - - 1550 - - 1260 - - 450 - - 880 CAPE Temp@2m 91.6 - - 102.3 - - 107.7 - - 107.7 - - 98.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 59.1 - - 57.9 - - 53.9 - - 47.9 - - 54.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 91.2 - - 100.1 - - 104.7 - - 105.9 - - 99.4 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 59.1 - - 57.9 - - 53.9 - - 47.8 - - 54.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 105 - - 448 - - 513 - - 212 - - -8 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1382 - - 7799 - - 13315 - - 12872 - - 57 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 53 - - 65 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 12 - - 10 - - 7 - - 7 - - 10 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98739 45 100 44 105 41 104 36 114 35 096 98739 91331 39 095 38 101 39 098 35 101 37 095 91331 85595 36 091 35 105 34 095 33 097 37 097 85595 80837 34 094 33 104 29 103 30 101 31 100 80837 76767 27 100 28 100 22 104 25 099 24 099 76767 73197 23 109 24 105 18 105 20 093 24 102 73197 69968 22 117 21 110 18 116 16 089 21 089 69968 67001 19 093 19 121 15 118 14 089 13 083 67001 64253 14 090 12 101 13 129 10 106 8 092 64253 61594 12 054 11 079 7 111 4 122 8 066 61594 58834 8 042 8 046 5 105 7 054 3 034 58834 56001 14 030 10 033 9 045 9 071 6 035 56001 53338 22 016 19 017 23 017 19 044 16 034 53338 50966 25 022 24 010 27 010 23 022 22 030 50966 48839 28 031 23 021 23 020 21 020 22 017 48839 46897 30 036 24 038 19 034 16 033 20 012 46897 45100 26 039 23 045 16 034 11 039 16 018 45100 43421 21 033 19 050 12 040 8 031 11 028 43421 41844 19 024 17 051 10 050 6 039 7 066 41844 40360 16 016 14 056 10 065 7 066 8 096 40360 38960 12 013 11 055 8 084 7 093 7 096 38960 37613 12 019 10 053 4 098 5 107 6 084 37613 36246 17 028 14 052 4 068 5 085 7 072 36246 34831 23 034 19 052 11 062 8 066 9 065 34831 33368 28 037 22 053 15 054 11 057 10 067 33368 31844 28 038 22 055 17 052 12 060 10 077 31844 30246 24 034 19 055 17 051 13 058 9 080 30246 28576 19 035 15 057 16 049 13 055 9 064 28576 26835 14 038 12 062 12 055 11 061 10 057 26835 25025 8 053 8 060 9 073 9 086 8 067 25025 23150 6 062 4 123 5 134 7 114 5 131 23150 21205 2 327 1 237 6 185 7 187 9 204 21205 19187 5 220 4 236 6 201 10 188 14 208 19187 17134 6 212 4 198 4*198 5 200 9 185 17134 15156 3 301 1 051 3*236 4*210 4 062 15156 13350 6 329 5 316 5 257 4*220 6 356 13350 11734 10 296 10 277 8 263 6 261 8 323 11734 10289 11 272 11*249 9 264 8 270 11 302 10289 8995 9 263 11*248 10 267 9 275 13 291 8995 7838 7 276 10 251 11 268 11 277 16 285 7838 6805 7 291 9 259 11 270 11 278 17 282 6805 5889 7 284 8 269 11 271 12 279 18 280 5889 5075 8 266 8 274 11 272 12 279 19 279 5075 4343 7 252 7 280 12 272 12 280 18 278 4343 3691 5*235 7 286 12 274 12 280 17 277 3691 3145 4*189 7 291 12 274 12 280 15 277 3145 2724 4 162 6 294 11 274 12 280 12 277 2724 2435 3 160 6 296 11 275 12 281 8 278 2435 2258 3 158 6 296 11 275 11 281 5 277 2258 2157 3 156 6 298 10 275 10 281 3*277 2157 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography