DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 01/21 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1000z - - 1336z - - 1603z - - 1902z - - 2200z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 46.4 - - 66.0 - - 67.3 - - 60.0 - - 54.3 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -25 - - 161 - - 288 - - 46 - - -21 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 54 - - 3448 - - 5357 - - 3476 - - 54 BL Depth Hcrit 2137 - - 4085 - - 5800 - - 2138 - - 2138 Hcrit BL Top 2154 - - 5548 - - 7457 - - 5576 - - 2154 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 80 - - 1719 - - 937 - - 2171 - - 6435 Hgt.Variab. W* 10 - - 339 - - 474 - - 224 - - 10 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 4 - - 2 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 18 - - 21 - - 22 - - 10 BL Wind Direction 207 - - 275 - - 282 - - 318 - - 321 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 13 - - 15 - - 9 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -4 - - 9 - - 18 - - 13 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -4769 - - -4405 - - -2093 - - -2012 - - -4896 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 6923 - - 9954 - - 9550 - - 7589 - - 7051 sfcLCL ODpotential -15642 - - -10983 - - -6987 - - -6571 - - -6181 ODpotential blCL 17796 - - 16531 - - 14444 - - 12147 - - 8335 blCL maxRH 32 - - 76 - - 57 - - 81 - - 64 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 46.4 - - 66.0 - - 67.3 - - 60.0 - - 54.3 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 24.5 - - 29.8 - - 32.7 - - 34.1 - - 30.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 49.5 - - 64.8 - - 65.7 - - 59.6 - - 54.5 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 23.3 - - 29.1 - - 32.4 - - 33.9 - - 30.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -25 - - 161 - - 288 - - 46 - - -21 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 54 - - 3448 - - 5357 - - 3476 - - 54 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 5 - - 0 - - 24 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 95889 41 280 36 284 41 269 42 271 43 279 95889 88487 39 279 29 266 33 254 38 276 35 288 88487 82941 31 280 23 274 28 268 31 279 30 285 82941 78438 25 284 20 274 24 270 26 281 24 282 78438 74613 20 291 15 287 18 259 19 291 16 291 74613 71230 15 275 16 274 14 299 18 299 17 297 71230 68158 22 262 22 252 23 298 20 279 19 290 68158 65316 28 249 22 261 27 277 19 286 18 303 65316 62649 31 247 29 262 30 248 26 293 26 307 62649 60041 36 253 33 262 26 243 26 276 28 300 60041 57291 44 261 37 268 26 260 37 272 33 291 57291 54410 58 268 46 270 45 272 48 269 47 279 54410 51656 73 265 65 266 65 268 60 269 56 272 51656 49174 84 260 82 259 78 259 69 266 63 276 49174 46943 93 257 90 257 84 260 79 262 77 272 46943 44925 99 258 97 259 92 265 86 264 90 267 44925 43097 107 260 107 260 106 267 93 267 97 266 43097 41423 112 260 117 260 117 266 99 269 100 269 41423 39868 112 260 120 260 123 264 106 271 107 274 39868 38410 108 260 117 260 123 263 116 271 118 274 38410 37038 104 258 112 258 119 260 122 268 127 273 37038 35717 101 255 108 255 115 255 125 264 132 271 35717 34379 102 254 108 252 114 250 119 258 127 268 34379 32993 104 254 110 252 115 250 116 257 118 265 32993 31565 103 254 110 253 110 255 116 259 110 263 31565 30088 100 254 102 254 100 259 111 258 113 267 30088 28551 93 255 88 257 92 260 106 260 122 270 28551 26953 82 256 77 259 89 260 97 260 124 270 26953 25290 71 260 74 262 87 261 91 258 118 268 25290 23566 63 264 73 265 86 263 89 259 106 266 23566 21782 58 268 71 266 84 264 88 263 99 266 21782 19927 55 268 68 265 81 264 85 266 95 264 19927 17992 53 267 65 263 77 263 81 268 91 262 17992 16020 52 267 63 262 72 262 75 268 85 263 16020 14130 50 265 59 262 63 263 67 268 67 264 14130 12429 45 262 49 262 54 267 58 264 44 257 12429 10926 38 259 36 263 47 269 47 255 36 252 10926 9591 32 260 30 259 38 259 37 245 28 268 9591 8403 27 264 26 252 28*251 31 247 24 296 8403 7344 23 270 18 256 24*257 26 261 26 308 7344 6400 21 276 21 279 22 272 23 282 28 313 6400 5563 21 280 27*285 22 281 22*299 29 315 5563 4819 22 283 24*282 22 286 23*313 29 317 4819 4149 23 279 20 275 22 288 23 316 28 319 4149 3555 24 267 19 274 22 290 23 318 27 320 3555 3056 24 250 17 272 22 291 23 320 25 321 3056 2672 21 236 16 272 21 292 22 321 21 322 2672 2407 14 225 15 272 20 293 21 321 16 321 2407 2246 8*215 14 272 19 293 19 321 13 321 2246 2154 5*207 11 272 16 293 15 322 10*321 2154 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography