DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 09/17 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0700z - - 1003z - - 1602z - - 1901z - - 2159z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 84.1 - - 96.3 - - 102.1 - - 101.2 - - 88.9 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 45 - - 332 - - 370 - - 87 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 370 - - 4674 - - 9587 - - 7209 - - 57 BL Depth Hcrit 2140 - - 5331 - - 9296 - - 6377 - - 2140 Hcrit BL Top 2470 - - 6774 - - 11687 - - 9309 - - 2157 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1087 - - 5070 - - 3892 - - 6198 - - 218 Hgt.Variab. W* 105 - - 475 - - 626 - - 353 - - 0 W* B/S 18 - - 16 - - 24 - - 8 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 1 - - 5 - - 5 - - 8 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 288 - - 032 - - 332 - - 317 - - 332 Direction Wind Shear 1 - - 7 - - 8 - - 7 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - -6 - - -8 - - -12 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -5211 - - -4196 - - -1632 - - -4170 - - -8273 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 7682 - - 10970 - - 13320 - - 13480 - - 10430 sfcLCL ODpotential -9341 - - -6368 - - -3487 - - -5908 - - -12033 ODpotential blCL 11811 - - 13142 - - 15174 - - 15217 - - 14190 blCL maxRH 64 - - 65 - - 58 - - 48 - - 59 maxRH CAPE 220 - - 180 - - 80 - - 60 - - 40 CAPE Temp@2m 84.1 - - 96.3 - - 102.1 - - 101.2 - - 88.9 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 58.0 - - 55.4 - - 50.5 - - 49.1 - - 51.1 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 84.1 - - 95.1 - - 99.8 - - 100.2 - - 92.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 58.0 - - 55.3 - - 50.2 - - 48.9 - - 50.8 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 45 - - 332 - - 370 - - 87 - - -6 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 370 - - 4674 - - 9587 - - 7209 - - 57 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 11 - - 9 - - 7 - - 7 - - 9 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98250 20 087 15 114 15 120 18 103 15 113 98250 90849 17 084 19 101 17 116 15 107 18 090 90849 85154 16 086 22 095 19 118 11 103 17 093 85154 80440 18 099 20 094 18 114 11 101 18 084 80440 76398 16 098 18 097 17 106 12 100 16 074 76398 72845 16 095 15 102 17 102 13 105 13 075 72845 69646 17 097 13 107 15 099 14 108 11 094 69646 66719 15 103 13 117 11 113 12 101 10 105 66719 64019 14 113 15 130 12 146 7 108 8 099 64019 61415 16 127 17 141 13 147 11 160 4 135 61415 58724 10 124 17 150 13 149 17 164 11 179 58724 55966 7 168 13 162 10 163 16 160 18 178 55966 53356 9 183 12 189 12 205 11 183 18 173 53356 51010 13 197 14 201 15 205 13 208 15 183 51010 48901 13 213 14 211 16 204 12 215 12 202 48901 46968 15 221 14 217 15 216 11 223 11 221 46968 45173 17 222 14 226 14 229 12 228 12 217 45173 43494 18 232 15 237 14 235 12 222 12 211 43494 41913 18 246 15 250 13 245 11 220 11 211 41913 40421 17 258 13 255 9 254 9 211 8 208 40421 39010 15 265 9 242 8 256 7 214 5 201 39010 37647 12 267 7 219 6 247 4 233 2 197 37647 36263 10 264 5 215 4 250 4 284 0 138 36263 34827 8 268 4 223 2 264 4 316 1 040 34827 33344 7 283 3 235 1 192 3 335 1 074 33344 31799 6 319 2 059 4 120 3 102 5 159 31799 30181 10 350 6 049 8 109 10 135 7 166 30181 28494 8 354 7 049 6 096 10 136 6 171 28494 26737 5 067 5 083 2 076 6 116 4 169 26737 24911 10 082 8 086 3 052 5 072 2 102 24911 23021 13 063 11 055 9 068 9 068 5 081 23021 21066 12 051 12 058 13 081 9 085 7 103 21066 19048 8 099 9 110 11 107 8 125 7 100 19048 17010 6 160 10 155 10 155 11 152 7 122 17010 15048 12 194 9 185 11 172 10 157 9 146 15048 13256 12 195 7 210 8*171 8 162 9 158 13256 11653 11 220 6 260 1*170 7 167 6 172 11653 10219 9 236 6 282 2 344 3*211 4 214 10219 8936 5 236 3 312 3 339 3*273 5 267 8936 7789 1 077 5*040 5 335 6 313 7 282 7789 6766 4 059 8*051 6 333 8 316 8 296 6766 5858 7 039 8 049 6 331 8 318 8 316 5858 5051 10 030 7 044 7 330 9 318 9 333 5051 4325 10 026 5 025 7 331 9 319 10 341 4325 3679 8 016 4 014 7 329 10 319 11 344 3679 3137 7 002 4 006 7 329 10 319 12 345 3137 2720 4*359 4 358 7 329 10 319 11 345 2720 2432 1*327 4 356 7 329 9 319 10 344 2432 2257 1 273 4 355 7 329 9 319 6*340 2257 2157 1 265 3 353 7 328 8 319 4*332 2157 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography