DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: TUE 01/18 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1002z - - 1337z - - 1602z - - 1902z - - 2202z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 46.2 - - 63.7 - - 68.9 - - 65.7 - - 55.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -17 - - 152 - - 213 - - 0 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 2439 - - 7072 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth Hcrit 2126 - - 3320 - - 6965 - - 2127 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top 2143 - - 4539 - - 9172 - - 2144 - - 2144 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 89 - - 3109 - - 2609 - - 10292 - - 1131 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 294 - - 469 - - 11 - - 0 W* B/S 0 - - 8 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 6 - - 12 - - 7 - - 2 BL Wind Direction 163 - - 241 - - 258 - - 300 - - 282 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 4 - - 7 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -3 - - 4 - - 9 - - 0 - - -1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -920 - - -2272 - - 318 - - -6152 - - -3003 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3063 - - 6811 - - 8854 - - 8297 - - 5148 sfcLCL ODpotential -6128 - - -3413 - - -215 - - -6758 - - -5894 ODpotential blCL 8271 - - 7952 - - 9387 - - 8902 - - 8038 blCL maxRH 83 - - 88 - - 79 - - 96 - - 94 maxRH CAPE 20 - - 0 - - 40 - - 60 - - 20 CAPE Temp@2m 46.2 - - 63.7 - - 68.9 - - 65.7 - - 55.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 40.5 - - 41.3 - - 37.3 - - 36.8 - - 40.6 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 48.9 - - 62.3 - - 67.3 - - 65.6 - - 59.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 40.5 - - 41.2 - - 37.2 - - 36.6 - - 39.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -17 - - 152 - - 213 - - 0 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 43 - - 2439 - - 7072 - - 44 - - 44 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 31 - - 52 - - 16 - - 83 - - 77 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 6 - - 5 - - 5 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96380 20 302 13 283 5 204 12 264 22 270 96380 89224 13 295 11 289 8 295 5 287 4 259 89224 83689 12 279 11 292 15 285 7 294 7 341 83689 79066 6 297 5 308 13 293 13 280 12 327 79066 75076 5 297 6 338 11 319 12 295 11 313 75076 71563 7 293 12 315 10 321 12 318 12 297 71563 68405 11 293 15 289 13 303 16 296 16 292 68405 65508 16 302 16 285 14 284 17 281 17 288 65508 62807 23 289 22 295 20 296 19 281 22 280 62807 60176 26 276 30 282 29 291 25 278 28 279 60176 57420 29 270 29 271 33 283 29 283 34 280 57420 54547 31 277 30 269 37 270 36 277 41 271 54547 51794 34 282 36 266 41 265 42 270 44 267 51794 49313 37 272 42 267 41 271 39 269 41 266 49313 47090 41 265 43 267 44 274 40 276 42 271 47090 45073 41 267 42 265 51 271 52 280 50 280 45073 43228 47 272 43 264 58 268 62 277 60 284 43228 41527 53 271 48 267 63 266 71 274 68 281 41527 39950 55 269 55 269 66 266 74 271 71 278 39950 38484 52 267 62 269 66 268 74 270 72 279 38484 37114 49 265 68 269 72 273 71 272 75 281 37114 35802 48 265 69 266 77 272 73 275 78 280 35802 34477 50 267 63 263 77 269 77 276 78 277 34477 33108 52 268 60 262 76 266 77 275 74 279 33108 31696 54 269 59 263 75 265 77 277 71 282 31696 30230 54 268 60 263 74 265 79 278 73 284 30230 28694 54 267 60 262 73 265 80 277 74 285 28694 27089 57 265 61 262 74 265 72 276 69 285 27089 25421 58 264 62 262 71 266 62 276 60 284 25421 23694 55 262 60 261 61 266 56 278 49 289 23694 21915 48 261 55 258 52 264 50 281 38 295 21915 20075 42 259 49 254 47 262 40 285 32 292 20075 18159 37 255 44 253 42 259 34 283 29 296 18159 16201 35 254 40 255 39 262 32 279 25 302 16201 14313 33 254 35 259 34 262 28 272 19 302 14313 12597 29 252 28 258 26 254 20 263 16 297 12597 11072 27 251 23 252 20 242 16 256 14 279 11072 9715 24 250 20 250 17*242 15 258 13 278 9715 8505 19 249 19 252 15*246 14 262 11 280 8505 7423 14 246 19 252 13 251 13 267 9 283 7423 6460 10 243 17 252 13 253 12 272 6 296 6460 5606 7 244 11 248 12 257 12 277 5 322 5606 4848 7 250 9*243 12 261 11 283 5 349 4848 4167 8 254 8*242 12 263 11 289 7 004 4167 3563 10 251 7 241 11 265 10 292 9 008 3563 3057 9 239 6 241 11 267 10 294 10 004 3057 2668 8 208 6 241 11 268 10 296 10 001 2668 2400 8 167 5 240 10 269 9 298 6 353 2400 2237 7*157 5 241 10 269 9*298 3*320 2237 2144 5*163 4 241 9 270 7*300 2*282 2144 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography