DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 02/14 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time - - - 0954z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD - - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m - - - 59.9 - - 67.2 - - 67.4 - - 56.8 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating - - - 156 - - 297 - - 54 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1942 - - 4633 - - 4578 - - 43 BL Depth Hcrit - - - 3003 - - 5249 - - 3931 - - 2127 Hcrit BL Top - - - 4042 - - 6733 - - 6678 - - 2143 BL Top Hgt.Variab. - - - 2459 - - 1420 - - 1396 - - 1077 Hgt.Variab. W* - - - 279 - - 455 - - 258 - - 4 W* B/S - - - 42 - - 19 - - 9 - - 0 B/S BL Wind - - - 1 - - 4 - - 5 - - 4 BL Wind Direction - - - 267 - - 348 - - 344 - - 049 Direction Wind Shear - - - 0 - - 1 - - 2 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg - - - -2 - - 2 - - 2 - - 2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent - - - -1263 - - -1468 - - -3075 - - -5495 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL - - - 5306 - - 8201 - - 9754 - - 7639 sfcLCL ODpotential - - - -3177 - - -8430 - - -10285 - - -15099 ODpotential blCL - - - 7219 - - 15163 - - 16963 - - 17242 blCL maxRH - - - 70 - - 58 - - 47 - - 34 maxRH CAPE - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m - - - 59.9 - - 67.2 - - 67.4 - - 56.8 Temp@2m DewPt@2m - - - 44.3 - - 38.7 - - 32.1 - - 31.4 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot - - - 58.7 - - 65.2 - - 66.7 - - 60.9 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot - - - 43.4 - - 38.4 - - 32.0 - - 31.3 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating - - - 156 - - 297 - - 54 - - -4 Sfc.Heating BL Depth - - - 1942 - - 4633 - - 4578 - - 43 BL Depth EXPERIMENT - - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 - - - 6 - - 5 - - 4 - - 4 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 96388 9 093 15 072 18 094 17 114 96388 89280 16 102 14 114 14 101 13 073 89280 83813 18 101 14 123 10 124 13 036 83813 79267 13 100 12 114 11 124 7 032 79267 75323 10 146 5 115 5 099 4 056 75323 71818 3 158 3 118 2 220 3 283 71818 68650 5 224 7 297 3 218 5 257 68650 65751 7 225 8 263 9 230 12 239 65751 63066 13 253 9 260 13 239 14 234 63066 60463 23 261 18 263 13 244 13 239 60463 57752 28 251 26 256 19 255 18 259 57752 54947 29 271 28 259 34 260 33 266 54947 52282 40 275 40 261 43 261 45 265 52282 49888 41 272 45 257 50 266 47 268 49888 47728 44 281 48 271 51 275 49 270 47728 45746 51 287 53 283 57 277 52 268 45746 43915 54 288 56 283 59 275 52 266 43915 42215 55 288 54 282 56 274 52 264 42215 40632 54 291 51 283 52 274 52 264 40632 39156 49 298 48 286 49 280 53 269 39156 37778 46 304 46 292 47 289 52 278 37778 36460 44 308 46 298 47 299 53 288 36460 35132 43 308 47 304 52 304 54 292 35132 33756 43 307 49 308 56 305 54 292 33756 32335 44 308 50 309 56 304 54 293 32335 30853 45 311 48 306 52 304 50 296 30853 29301 45 314 46 305 47 303 44 296 29301 27682 43 315 45 302 43 299 38 294 27682 25992 39 317 41 302 40 295 35 290 25992 24235 38 322 37 308 38 292 33 281 24235 22411 39 333 35 317 32 300 25 276 22411 20513 43 344 35 324 26 313 20 283 20513 18533 46 347 33 332 24 325 18 289 18533 16511 45 352 32 345 21 340 10 293 16511 14560 38 004 27 004 14 007 4 300 14560 12781 29 017 20 022 10 042 1 296 12781 11198 21 022 12 032 5 073 1 177 11198 9795 15 006 8 032 2 128 3 162 9795 8552 13 354 7 013 2 300 2 131 8552 7453 9 356 5*356 3*322 2 078 7453 6480 6 358 5*345 4*333 2 070 6480 5621 5 005 5 344 5 337 2 092 5621 4860 5 017 4 345 5 341 3 093 4860 4177 2*358 4 346 5 344 4 076 4177 3570 1*276 4 350 6 346 6 060 3570 3062 1 267 4 353 6 347 6 049 3062 2671 1 264 4 353 6 349 7 042 2671 2401 1 264 4 356 6 350 7 039 2401 2237 1 262 4 356 6 350 5 045 2237 2143 1 261 4 355 6 349 4*049 2143 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography