DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: WED 07/18 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1014z - - 1337z - - 1602z - - 1902z - - 2203z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 78.8 - - 86.0 - - 95.5 - - 95.8 - - 87.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 71 - - 278 - - 514 - - 254 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1255 - - 3870 - - 6182 - - 5464 - - 57 BL Depth Hcrit 2140 - - 4659 - - 6694 - - 5820 - - 2140 Hcrit BL Top 3355 - - 5970 - - 8282 - - 7564 - - 2157 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1240 - - 1704 - - 2939 - - 3185 - - 2915 Hgt.Variab. W* 192 - - 427 - - 601 - - 457 - - 9 W* B/S 8 - - 11 - - 15 - - 8 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 7 - - 7 - - 11 - - 10 BL Wind Direction 343 - - 287 - - 253 - - 258 - - 259 Direction Wind Shear 1 - - 5 - - 17 - - 8 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 4 - - -2 - - -6 - - -6 - - -4 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 80 - - 1120 - - 290 - - -457 - - -3531 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 3276 - - 4851 - - 7992 - - 8022 - - 5689 sfcLCL ODpotential -2891 - - 343 - - -409 - - -1537 - - -6162 ODpotential blCL 6246 - - 5627 - - 8691 - - 9101 - - 8319 blCL maxRH 85 - - 94 - - 79 - - 77 - - 81 maxRH CAPE 2040 - - 2960 - - 2850 - - 3020 - - 2840 CAPE Temp@2m 78.8 - - 86.0 - - 95.5 - - 95.8 - - 87.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 71.2 - - 71.6 - - 67.5 - - 67.6 - - 69.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 78.1 - - 84.4 - - 92.8 - - 93.8 - - 87.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 70.7 - - 70.8 - - 67.4 - - 67.6 - - 69.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 71 - - 278 - - 514 - - 254 - - -2 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1255 - - 3870 - - 6182 - - 5464 - - 57 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 41 - - 74 - - 15 - - 9 - - 22 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 17 - - 17 - - 15 - - 15 - - 17 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98852 42 103 39 090 34 089 42 093 36 096 98852 91416 37 090 35 090 35 091 32 096 31 090 91416 85671 31 090 36 094 35 094 26 087 33 093 85671 80904 26 094 32 092 32 102 25 088 34 095 80904 76800 20 098 22 094 27 097 26 095 30 097 76800 73179 19 099 16 100 17 081 25 092 23 096 73179 69916 21 095 18 120 13 105 17 075 19 082 69916 66919 17 080 17 115 18 120 10 098 16 076 66919 64144 11 079 12 088 14 108 12 106 12 102 64144 61484 16 115 10 108 7 101 8 126 13 099 61484 58755 16 101 15 113 9 097 12 124 9 097 58755 55965 10 099 13 108 7 107 11 099 6 104 55965 53336 17 136 22 138 19 146 17 141 17 147 53336 50995 23 131 25 133 23 143 17 145 25 149 50995 48895 22 132 22 135 25 150 20 158 27 152 48895 46971 24 146 25 145 29 153 27 159 29 152 46971 45186 27 153 29 148 33 155 29 158 29 151 45186 43515 30 156 31 150 34 158 29 158 27 150 43515 41943 32 157 35 152 36 159 30 160 26 150 41943 40456 34 157 38 153 38 159 31 159 25 150 40456 39049 34 155 39 152 40 159 31 155 24 150 39049 37687 33 153 40 150 41 158 31 152 24 150 37687 36304 31 152 38 148 37 154 30 153 23 150 36304 34870 30 150 34 147 35 149 28 151 22 148 34870 33390 29 149 30 147 32 145 25 142 22 140 33390 31849 28 150 27 147 27 140 25 134 22 130 31849 30236 25 150 26 149 24 138 26 132 24 125 30236 28550 19 136 23 151 22 139 26 134 25 126 28550 26793 17 119 19 145 19 139 25 140 25 132 26793 24969 17 114 18 127 17 132 24 141 24 141 24969 23083 15 112 18 118 17 121 21 132 23 143 23083 21130 14 122 16 119 17 115 18 123 20 136 21130 19105 14 136 13 123 15 117 17 129 16 130 19105 17048 17 136 14 124 14 122 16 130 14 127 17048 15068 22 129 17 128 15 127 19 126 17 124 15068 13264 23 128 19 131 19 130 19 119 16 120 13264 11652 19 130 17 130 19 129 16 122 11 107 11652 10210 14 126 14 122 16 126 13 129 6 083 10210 8922 11 116 11 114 13*130 9 134 4 024 8922 7772 9 116 8 113 9*139 5*155 8 345 7772 6749 6 125 2*111 4 193 4*227 9 341 6749 5841 3 149 3*301 6 254 8 253 9 332 5841 5035 2 245 4 296 9 263 11 259 9 313 5035 4311 3 289 7 288 10 264 13 260 12 286 4311 3668 5*310 8 286 11 265 13 260 16 268 3668 3131 5*330 9 284 11 265 13 260 17 263 3131 2716 5 345 9 283 11 266 13 259 17 262 2716 2431 5 347 9 282 11 266 13 259 16 261 2431 2257 4 348 8 282 11 266 13 259 14*260 2257 2157 4 347 8 282 10 266 11 259 10*259 2157 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography