DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SAT 05/18 ElTiro_AZ 2100ft pt22363@32.366,-111.342,2139ft SPONSORED BY: Tucson Soaring Club BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.1 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 21Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 1013z - - 1338z - - 1603z - - 1902z - - 2200z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 64.7 - - 75.4 - - 81.7 - - 82.2 - - 73.5 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 133 - - 471 - - 496 - - 195 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1041 - - 6503 - - 7796 - - 7845 - - 56 BL Depth Hcrit 2138 - - 6918 - - 7989 - - 7509 - - 2139 Hcrit BL Top 3141 - - 8603 - - 9896 - - 9945 - - 2156 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1672 - - 1316 - - 1225 - - 1294 - - 6819 Hgt.Variab. W* 212 - - 594 - - 643 - - 472 - - 4 W* B/S 32 - - 28 - - 17 - - 8 - - 0 B/S BL Wind 1 - - 4 - - 7 - - 11 - - 4 BL Wind Direction 212 - - 319 - - 295 - - 288 - - 270 Direction Wind Shear 3 - - 4 - - 5 - - 10 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -1 - - -6 - - 2 - - -7 - - -2 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -6277 - - -4080 - - -5248 - - -5918 - - -11050 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 9418 - - 12684 - - 15144 - - 15864 - - 13207 sfcLCL ODpotential -12869 - - -13441 - - -13449 - - -13382 - - -19316 ODpotential blCL 16010 - - 22044 - - 23345 - - 23327 - - 21472 blCL maxRH 35 - - 71 - - 74 - - 67 - - 56 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 64.7 - - 75.4 - - 81.7 - - 82.2 - - 73.5 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 31.1 - - 26.7 - - 21.7 - - 19.1 - - 23.2 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 64.7 - - 74.0 - - 79.4 - - 80.7 - - 76.3 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 31.0 - - 26.6 - - 21.5 - - 18.9 - - 23.0 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 133 - - 471 - - 496 - - 195 - - -7 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 1041 - - 6503 - - 7796 - - 7845 - - 56 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 4 - - 3 - - 2 - - 2 - - 3 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97819 21 099 19 116 24 117 15 131 10 121 97819 90374 23 107 21 109 24 107 17 114 20 096 90374 84680 19 118 19 123 19 105 23 102 20 098 84680 79966 20 125 18 119 17 115 21 095 17 114 79966 75912 22 116 19 142 12 117 17 099 17 112 75912 72341 14 105 23 135 16 155 7 112 11 104 72341 69111 9 120 14 119 11 145 8 165 9 094 69111 66141 2 185 4 136 7 184 10 218 2 206 66141 63392 5 248 7 216 9 219 15 217 10 238 63392 60737 14 291 13 263 14 247 22 238 20 248 60737 57977 27 279 25 268 25 268 25 255 27 253 57977 55116 34 282 39 278 36 278 32 268 35 268 55116 52389 50 289 51 288 54 286 53 276 53 271 52389 49944 67 292 63 287 62 284 61 275 62 271 49944 47762 73 290 67 288 65 289 63 282 67 277 47762 45790 73 293 70 295 74 294 72 290 76 283 45790 44000 79 303 86 301 89 292 83 288 85 285 44000 42359 91 305 96 298 91 287 86 284 86 283 42359 40833 98 304 94 296 88 287 84 283 82 281 40833 39392 99 304 90 296 86 287 81 286 79 282 39392 38026 94 304 84 297 83 289 75 289 76 282 38026 36701 88 304 80 297 79 290 71 290 74 281 36701 35354 83 304 77 297 77 292 68 290 73 281 35354 33956 80 306 73 296 75 292 65 290 73 283 33956 32513 77 308 69 296 72 293 64 291 72 286 32513 31011 76 310 65 295 69 293 63 292 68 288 31011 29437 71 309 62 294 64 294 61 293 63 290 29437 27794 66 307 61 295 60 293 56 293 61 291 27794 26080 62 301 59 296 57 294 51 292 63 292 26080 24299 61 295 57 297 54 297 48 293 66 293 24299 22453 61 293 56 296 51 300 46 294 66 294 22453 20537 57 298 54 296 47 297 46 291 64 294 20537 18547 49 302 45 298 41 292 47 291 59 291 18547 16523 42 300 36 301 33 290 35 288 48 295 16523 14583 34 299 28 304 24 290 20 278 31 295 14583 12828 25 301 21 309 16 283 14 262 18 257 12828 11276 19 302 15 316 9*268 14*263 15 242 11276 9897 14 302 11*315 8*273 14*265 12 265 9897 8665 9 319 7*317 8 279 14 268 13 273 8665 7564 6 332 5 318 7 288 12 281 14 274 7564 6581 5 351 4 318 7 294 11 289 14 274 6581 5709 5 009 4 318 7 298 10 294 14 274 5709 4934 5 027 3 318 7 302 10 299 14 275 4934 4236 5 049 3 320 7 305 10 303 14 275 4236 3616 3*065 3 319 7 308 10 306 13 277 3616 3096 2*091 3 321 7 310 10 308 12 279 3096 2696 2 221 3 321 7 311 10 309 11 280 2696 2420 2 223 3 321 7 311 9 310 9 280 2420 2251 2 225 3 322 6 313 9 311 6*277 2251 2156 2 225 3 323 6 313 8 311 4*270 2156 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography