DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: SUN 10/18 Blanding_UT 5868ft pt30803@37.612,-109.420,5928ft SPONSORED BY: Dave Piotrowski BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.2 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 15Z 3Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0654z - - 0955z - - 1003z - - 1335z - - 1600z Update Time FCST PERIOD 9 hr - - 9 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr - - 12 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 45.2 - - 49.0 - - 51.3 - - 52.9 - - 51.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -1 - - 9 - - 3 - - -2 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 175 - - 175 - - 175 - - 175 - - 175 BL Depth Hcrit 6026 - - 6026 - - 6026 - - 6026 - - 6026 Hcrit BL Top 6043 - - 6043 - - 6043 - - 6043 - - 6043 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 1255 - - 1692 - - 2139 - - 1980 - - 585 Hgt.Variab. W* 5 - - 59 - - 40 - - 17 - - 27 W* B/S 1 - - 10 - - 3 - - 2 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 1 - - 1 - - 3 - - 2 - - 6 BL Wind Direction 111 - - 039 - - 014 - - 018 - - 005 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - -2 - - -5 - - -3 - - -12 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent -3507 - - -3556 - - -2057 - - -2332 - - -1709 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 9551 - - 9600 - - 8100 - - 8375 - - 7752 sfcLCL ODpotential -12209 - - -10701 - - -6995 - - -6726 - - -5965 ODpotential blCL 18252 - - 16744 - - 13038 - - 12769 - - 12008 blCL maxRH 99 - - 100 - - 100 - - 95 - - 101 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 50 - - 40 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 45.2 - - 49.0 - - 51.3 - - 52.9 - - 51.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 25.1 - - 28.4 - - 36.9 - - 37.3 - - 38.5 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 46.7 - - 48.8 - - 51.3 - - 53.7 - - 53.6 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 24.0 - - 27.2 - - 36.0 - - 36.2 - - 37.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -1 - - 9 - - 3 - - -2 - - -18 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 175 - - 175 - - 175 - - 175 - - 175 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 95 - - 102 - - 101 - - 79 - - 102 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 3 - - 4 - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z 1Z 2Z 3Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97604 14 259 29 288 23 280 23 301 25 307 97604 90310 17 300 25 274 25 269 23 295 27 298 90310 84704 17 305 17 278 22 271 22 274 28 298 84704 80050 16 264 11 297 12 275 18 266 22 294 80050 76053 11 259 11 304 7 303 12 295 14 291 76053 72552 9 305 11 287 10 303 11 307 9 290 72552 69393 11 317 10 276 12 278 11 301 9 306 69393 66477 12 301 12 278 13 257 15 275 13 304 66477 63766 16 294 13 278 15 261 18 260 19 283 63766 61144 20 285 19 284 19 275 19 281 19 277 61144 58426 26 264 23 275 21 266 23 273 26 269 58426 55622 28 271 26 279 22 272 25 264 29 262 55622 52945 42 274 41 282 36 280 35 272 36 264 52945 50528 51 265 52 272 47 274 43 269 43 264 50528 48348 49 266 55 267 52 268 50 267 49 263 48348 46352 49 271 56 266 57 267 56 266 53 262 46352 44505 53 272 58 268 59 267 58 267 53 265 44505 42784 55 268 59 268 60 269 58 268 53 268 42784 41172 57 265 58 266 59 270 57 269 53 267 41172 39659 56 263 54 263 57 269 56 269 54 265 39659 38241 50 263 49 262 52 267 54 271 53 266 38241 36887 48 262 42 262 47 267 51 271 51 271 36887 35536 40 259 43 260 39 265 46 269 48 273 35536 34159 21 242 32 253 33 273 39 270 43 273 34159 32762 15 187 16 230 23 284 31 274 36 277 32762 31329 16 189 23 187 10 248 20 286 26 297 31329 29859 17 195 23 169 10 153 10 296 16 305 29859 28359 16 189 18 172 7 185 4 080 8 352 28359 26826 16 184 16 180 6 204 2 079 8 031 26826 25256 16 188 13 195 4 219 4 166 5 057 25256 23652 15 194 9 223 4 296 5 220 0 006 23652 22011 14 202 10 224 5 242 6 207 5 274 22011 20325 15 206 14 224 10 215 9 240 9 300 20325 18624 15 200 16 222 18 220 12 255 9 282 18624 16995 14 188 13 224 18 225 15 248 12 283 16995 15515 14 180 11 230 19 230 20 247 14 273 15515 14194 14 179 15 222 23 229 23 247 15 263 14194 13010 13 174 20 210 25 230 22 245 16 254 13010 11944 11 167 18 195 22 232 19 242 15 246 11944 10982 11 160 14 175 17 230 15 238 14 240 10982 10115 12 161 12 155 14 212 12 232 12 235 10115 9337 10 173 11 145 13 189 10 227 10 227 9337 8636 7 198 9 147 11 174 8 216 8 220 8636 7997 6 213 7 152 7 165 6 206 6 216 7997 7422 4 186 5 149 3 141 3 203 3 224 7422 6936 4 160 3 134 2 046 1 044 2 263 6936 6558 5 167 1 075 3 024 3 030 3 333 6558 6295 4 165 1 044 3 019 3 026 5 356 6295 6135 2*145 1*043 3*017 2*021 6*004 6135 6043 1*111 1*039 3*014 2*018 6*005 6043 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 21Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography