DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: THU 09/29 Atkins_VA 2558ft pt29724@36.958,-81.342,2720ft SPONSORED BY: Randy Newberry BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.5 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0653z - - 0955z - - 1326z - - 1554z - - 1854z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 40.5 - - 52.9 - - 60.0 - - 61.5 - - 53.4 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating -23 - - 180 - - 261 - - 64 - - -32 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 257 - - 2131 - - 2778 - - 258 - - 258 BL Depth Hcrit 2798 - - 3654 - - 4273 - - 2800 - - 2799 Hcrit BL Top 2815 - - 4689 - - 5336 - - 2816 - - 2816 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 281 - - 808 - - 1051 - - 4493 - - 1992 Hgt.Variab. W* 0 - - 301 - - 375 - - 110 - - 23 W* B/S 0 - - 3 - - 4 - - 2 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 5 - - 20 - - 17 - - 9 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 029 - - 043 - - 053 - - 060 - - 065 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 12 - - 9 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg -2 - - -4 - - -1 - - 1 - - 0 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 0 - - 132 - - -760 - - -3623 - - -1865 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2815 - - 4558 - - 6096 - - 6440 - - 4681 sfcLCL ODpotential -10481 - - -7696 - - -6504 - - -10118 - - -10193 ODpotential blCL 13296 - - 12385 - - 11840 - - 12934 - - 13009 blCL maxRH 91 - - 88 - - 73 - - 70 - - 63 maxRH CAPE 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 CAPE Temp@2m 40.5 - - 52.9 - - 60.0 - - 61.5 - - 53.4 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 39.7 - - 43.0 - - 43.2 - - 43.3 - - 42.9 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 41.7 - - 51.5 - - 58.0 - - 60.6 - - 55.0 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 40.3 - - 42.5 - - 42.3 - - 42.4 - - 42.6 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating -23 - - 180 - - 261 - - 64 - - -32 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 257 - - 2131 - - 2778 - - 258 - - 258 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 65 - - 51 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 6 - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 - - 6 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 97985 15 118 10 072 15 091 1 093 5 060 97985 90623 10 057 15 105 15 103 9 104 8 068 90623 84943 13 024 15 106 9 091 10 071 9 045 84943 80248 12 060 14 084 11 071 13 071 13 043 80248 76224 12 064 12 083 9 076 10 068 14 056 76224 72668 10 055 13 079 8 108 3 070 9 018 72668 69447 5 135 8 096 8 107 8 148 6 183 69447 66477 3 123 7 141 9 165 2 229 4 160 66477 63721 8 265 3 306 4 176 6 267 4 265 63721 61075 10 259 10 271 5 265 10 269 5 284 61075 58329 15 272 18 271 10 269 14 257 9 284 58329 55490 24 257 24 257 20 252 20 244 22 268 55490 52799 35 264 30 253 29 251 27 247 31 257 52799 50385 51 261 43 255 44 252 40 251 41 253 50385 48221 65 253 55 245 56 240 54 243 53 240 48221 46253 76 244 65 234 67 229 65 231 64 229 46253 44441 84 234 73 229 74 223 72 222 72 217 44441 42759 89 225 80 222 81 216 84 213 81 206 42759 41181 95 217 87 214 87 211 95 207 92 202 41181 39689 98 214 91 210 93 206 100 202 90 203 39689 38279 96 213 93 207 95 201 97 203 86 205 38279 36921 94 215 96 205 96 198 94 205 81 205 36921 35546 85 220 96 208 94 203 88 210 77 207 35546 34124 69 232 79 215 87 210 76 218 72 211 34124 32660 56 246 58 228 67 220 61 222 66 216 32660 31141 41 264 37 242 50 234 50 226 56 219 31141 29561 32 276 24 254 31 245 32 235 38 222 29561 27925 28 285 20 274 16 252 19 240 19 220 27925 26234 24 290 18 302 8 292 11 233 7 230 26234 24486 21 294 17 302 10 325 2 313 2 017 24486 22675 20 299 11 294 8 320 5 344 8 012 22675 20796 20 316 10 342 5 355 6 027 12 030 20796 18846 20 339 14 021 12 038 16 043 22 050 18846 16867 21 001 22 042 24 063 25 056 27 058 16867 14964 22 012 27 047 31 067 30 064 28 065 14964 13233 22 020 29 048 30 064 29 066 28 069 13233 11693 24 034 32 053 28 058 27 063 27 069 11693 10326 30 047 34 060 26 058 25 061 25 069 10326 9112 33 053 34 069 26 062 24 063 26 068 9112 8036 33 055 33 074 26 065 25 061 26 061 8036 7085 31 055 33 072 28 063 21 055 23 052 7085 6244 30 054 33 064 24 058 19 055 21 051 6244 5497 29 058 31 059 19*053 19 056 21 058 5497 4825 30 061 24*048 18*053 18 058 22 066 4825 4227 31 057 23*044 18 053 18 058 22 069 4227 3725 28 050 22 043 17 053 17 059 21 070 3725 3338 21 041 20 042 17 054 16 059 18 071 3338 3071 15 034 19 042 15 054 15 060 14 070 3071 2909 10*030 16 042 13 054 13*061 10*068 2909 2816 5*029 11 042 10 055 9*060 5*065 2816 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography