DrJack's BLIPSPOT for: MON 08/03 Atkins_VA 2558ft pt29724@36.958,-81.342,2720ft SPONSORED BY: Randy Newberry BLIPSPOT sfc.temp. adjusted by -0.5 degF RUC - Last Analysis,Validation Time = 18Z 0Z ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time 0656z - - 0958z - - 1332z - - 1559z - - 1859z Update Time FCST PERIOD 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr - - 6 hr FCST PERIOD Temp@2m 65.3 - - 73.2 - - 72.0 - - 70.7 - - 69.1 Temp@2m Sfc.Heating 9 - - 120 - - 59 - - -17 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 254 - - 254 - - 254 - - 254 - - 254 BL Depth Hcrit 2795 - - 2796 - - 2795 - - 2795 - - 2795 Hcrit BL Top 2812 - - 2812 - - 2812 - - 2812 - - 2812 BL Top Hgt.Variab. 493 - - 3829 - - 4031 - - 3593 - - 2806 Hgt.Variab. W* 56 - - 134 - - 109 - - 49 - - 38 W* B/S 6 - - 5 - - 4 - - 1 - - 1 B/S BL Wind 2 - - 5 - - 4 - - 8 - - 5 BL Wind Direction 094 - - 188 - - 170 - - 138 - - 133 Direction Wind Shear 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 - - 0 Wind Shear Max.Converg 0 - - 2 - - 1 - - 2 - - 1 Max.Converg CLOUDpotent 0 - - -677 - - -967 - - -661 - - -252 CLOUDpotentl sfcLCL 2812 - - 3489 - - 3779 - - 3474 - - 3064 sfcLCL ODpotential -2719 - - -1254 - - -1834 - - -1847 - - -1442 ODpotential blCL 5531 - - 4066 - - 4646 - - 4659 - - 4254 blCL maxRH 100 - - 99 - - 100 - - 91 - - 97 maxRH CAPE 860 - - 1730 - - 1070 - - 1040 - - 900 CAPE Temp@2m 65.3 - - 73.2 - - 72.0 - - 70.7 - - 69.1 Temp@2m DewPt@2m 63.9 - - 67.0 - - 64.7 - - 64.7 - - 64.8 DewPt@2m Temp@Bot 64.8 - - 71.6 - - 70.9 - - 70.3 - - 68.8 Temp@Bot DewPt@Bot 63.8 - - 66.1 - - 63.8 - - 64.3 - - 64.5 DewPt@bot Sfc.Heating 9 - - 120 - - 59 - - -17 - - -11 Sfc.Heating BL Depth 254 - - 254 - - 254 - - 254 - - 254 BL Depth EXPERIMENT 99 - - 94 - - 99 - - 65 - - 87 EXPERIMENT EXPERIMENT2 14 - - 15 - - 14 - - 14 - - 14 EXPERIMENT2 PROFILES OF WIND SPEED [kt] AND DIRECTION [degTrue] ----------------------------------- VALIDATION TIME --------------------------------------- Height 12Z 13Z 14Z 15Z 16Z 17Z 18Z 19Z 20Z 21Z 22Z 23Z 0Z [ft] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- [ft] 98950 38 077 39 085 37 079 39 082 35 092 98950 91511 35 074 39 080 37 081 38 080 34 087 91511 85795 31 072 33 085 33 080 32 080 32 073 85795 81057 27 084 29 092 25 082 27 078 27 063 81057 76974 25 097 25 095 21 092 21 075 23 068 76974 73370 20 102 19 094 18 097 16 084 20 083 73370 70120 16 100 15 102 15 105 16 091 18 090 70120 67140 13 114 14 111 16 111 13 102 10 107 67140 64382 17 111 15 126 17 131 14 138 13 152 64382 61726 8 093 14 118 21 150 19 149 17 164 61726 58955 12 168 10 169 16 159 17 183 15 170 58955 56079 20 181 28 193 23 201 23 187 22 189 56079 53336 22 193 36 183 34 192 29 180 25 202 53336 50866 35 226 33 214 33 216 31 217 34 224 50866 48671 57 228 58 223 56 225 59 221 58 218 48671 46692 75 223 74 218 77 217 75 213 76 209 46692 44870 83 221 79 217 85 212 80 210 81 204 44870 43167 81 219 81 219 87 211 82 209 80 203 43167 41562 72 219 81 218 86 212 82 209 80 204 41562 40047 67 222 77 217 83 211 81 208 79 205 40047 38618 67 227 72 217 79 210 78 205 79 204 38618 37238 67 225 67 218 74 209 76 205 79 202 37238 35842 65 219 62 216 71 206 74 203 78 197 35842 34402 62 212 61 212 68 198 75 198 78 190 34402 32923 61 209 61 208 60 195 77 197 77 191 32923 31395 58 209 59 204 49 192 71 198 68 199 31395 29811 52 209 48 203 43 187 55 193 51 203 29811 28167 46 210 42 206 42 183 49 190 40 202 28167 26463 44 214 42 214 38 183 48 194 35 198 26463 24698 44 210 36 219 37 191 44 195 33 191 24698 22876 43 207 35 218 40 202 41 193 33 188 22876 20988 40 206 37 215 43 208 34 196 33 189 20988 19032 37 210 38 208 45 209 34 206 30 206 19032 17046 33 214 35 203 43 205 31 223 28 210 17046 15141 31 212 32 204 35 199 27 230 22 219 15141 13413 29 210 28 207 26 197 26 235 18 237 13413 11876 27 211 25 211 24 210 21 237 17 248 11876 10504 24 212 23 213 22 225 18 234 15 250 10504 9277 21 212 23 211 22 234 15 229 12 234 9277 8182 20 212 22 212 20 235 12 223 11 201 8182 7207 19 212 21 214 19 234 10 202 11 177 7207 6342 17 212 21 216 16 231 11 175 11 170 6342 5573 14 213 20 215 14 227 12 163 11 166 5573 4881 10 208 19 213 11 218 15 151 11 161 4881 4265 8 201 16 209 9 199 17 145 11 155 4265 3749 8 187 12 203 8 179 17 143 11 149 3749 3350 8 170 9 193 7 174 16 141 11 144 3350 3075 6 155 7 190 7 172 14 140 10 139 3075 2908 3*119 6 188 6*170 12*139 8*136 2908 2812 2*094 5*188 4*170 8*138 5*133 2812 PARAMETER KEY: (basic parameter information is provided at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/basic_parameters.html) (more complete parameter descriptions are at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/RUC/INFO/parameters.html) (additional help is at http://www.drjack.info/BLIP/INFO/index.html, e.g. "For NEW USERS" section) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update Time = UTC Time of BLIPSPOT calculation FCST PERIOD = Hours from model initialization time Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] Hcrit = Height of Critical Updraft Strength [ftMSL] BL Top = Height of Boundary Layer Top (TI=0 height) [ftMSL] Hgt.Variab = Thermal Height Variability (difference between TI=+4{F} & TI=0 Heights) [ft] W* = Thermal Updraft Velocity (subtract glider sink rate to get vario) [fpm] B/S = Buoyancy/Shear Ratio (thermals may be unworkable if 5 or less) BL Wind = Wind Speed averaged through BL [kt] Direction = Wind Direction averaged through BL [degTrue] Max.Converg = Max. Vertical Velocity created by BL Convergence [x10^-2 kt] (note: BLIPMAPs provide better evaluation since convergence lines are usually mobile CLOUDpotent = Expect clouds at or above sfcLCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & sfcLCL) [ft] sfcLCL = Base of Lowest Clouds, if CLOUDpotent>0 (LCL = Lifting Condensation Level based upon sfc. humidity) [ftMSL] ODpotential = Expect extensive clouds at blCL if positive (difference between H(TI=0) & blCL) [ft] bLCL = Base of Extensive Clouds, if ODpotential>0 (bl CL = Condensation Level based upon BL humidity) [ftMSL] maxRH = Maximum Relative Humidity in BL [%] CAPE = Convective Available Potential Energy [J/kg] Temp@2m = Temperature at 2m AGL [F] DewPt@2m = Dew Point Temp. at 2m AGL [F] Temp@Bot = Temperature at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) DewPt@Bot = Dew Point Temp. at 16m AGL (bottom of grid) [F] (intended for DrJack's use) Sfc.Heating = Surface Heating of atmosphere [W/m^2] BL Depth = Depth of the Boundary (Mixing) Layer [ft] EXPERIMENT = Mystery variable for test purposes (intended for DrJack's use) * = Indicates BL Top (TI=0 Height) on profiles Note: printed heights are for 18Z - heights for other times differ slightly Results neglect thermals created by small-scale features not resolved by the smoothed model topography