NAM BLIPMAP DEVELOPMENT
NAM model has 12 km resolution and forecasts to 84 hrs

The Short Story

      Providing NAM BLIPMAP forecasts in addition to the present RUC forecasts has many potential advantages, including:

  1. longer-range forecasts, to 84 hours, to allow more advanced warning
  2. better resolution of topography and small-scale features such as convergences, for improved forecasts of locally-forced phenomena
  3. additional predictions, such as partial cloudiness within a grid cell
  4. different parameterizations than used in the RUC model (e.g. for cloud forecasts), and thus potentially better forecasts
  5. better assessment of the reliability (confidence) in a given forecast through comparison of two different model forecasts
  6. backup forecasts should data from the other model not be available
  7. ability to make changes difficult to implement in the existing BLIPMAP program, such as greater overlap between different regions, fixed colors for specific parameter values, and possibly lat/long grids directly suitable for import into software such as SeeYou
  8. use of a single machine for both processing & website, and thus fewer transmission problems and quicker "first of day" plots
  9. an operation upon which the existing RUC BLIPMAP forecasts can be piggy-backed to eliminate transmission problems and to ensure their long-term survival
      The downside mostly stems from the fact that NAM processing needs literally ten times the effort of the RUC model.  This requires a commercial data center with a larger bandwidth than available via DSL, a more powerful computer than presently used, and essentially more complexity at every stage. 

Note:
      NAM forecasts have the potential to provide improved soaring forecasts for reasons noted above, but that cannot be guaranteed.  NAM forecasts will have to be compared to actually observed conditions to establish their reliabiliy for soaring forecasts.  It is quite possible that NAM predictions may be better than RUC predictions for certain regions or parameters and vice-versa for other regions and parameters.