26 =========== ---------- *AT* Idaho Falls, ID/Driggs, ID
I use these as a go-no go decision maker only if the appearance of the sky is really bad. My flying location is 50 miles east of my home and I have to decide early to drive over. Sometimes after reserving the glider and arranging the time, I go no matter what.
38 =========== ---------- *AT* Ascutney VT
I think they don't account to micro varitions. On average, they are good but I usually find thermals that are stronger than predicted. Some days that the BLIPMAPS predict no soaring are soarable.
45 =========== Bill Geiger *AT* Keystone Gliderport Julian, PA
The predictions are generally quite accurate given they forecast for a wide area and conditions vary locally.
62 =========== ---------- *AT* Fremont, CA
Difficult to use for a PG, I use it as a rough guide.
65 =========== ---------- *AT* Avenal, CA
I still use the TIP in conjuction with the BLIP maps, the Oakland sounding data, as well as my car's thermometer will driving to work at 0300 (down an 1800' grade).
66 =========== Jim Fryett *AT* Arthur East ON
I thought the predications were good. In Southern Ontario the thermals are generally averaging 5 knots on a good day.
81 =========== Ron Gleason *AT* Groveland, FL plus many others around the US
As stated above, the forecasts for FL and TX are quite accurate.
98 =========== Mark Stump *AT* Magazine Mtn, AR
We normally see the same climb rate as posted on the blip. without subtracting our sink rate.
109 =========== Gary Rubus *AT* Buena Vista, CO
I do not have a base of stats to estimate Average Error for ANY of your parameters. Wish I did, but don't fly enough. My flights this last season didn't generate any memorable trends.
115 =========== ---------- *AT* Sterling, Ma (3b3)
Sring seems to be more optimistic than the fall
154 =========== ---------- *AT* Chilliwack, BC, Canada (many launch sites)
Of course, is a very general figure, but has been a consistent indicator of what may be expected on any given day in a given area
162 =========== Discus Flyer *AT* Hinton, OK
During the normal season for Ok, late may to early Sept, they are more accurate.
164 =========== ---------- *AT* sterling, MA (3b3)
often not good when there is a high cirrus coverage
166 =========== James Gaar *AT* Ottawa, KS
167 =========== Davis Straub *AT* Quest Air, FL
I, of cousre, subtract 200 fpm.
175 =========== lou scheel *AT* minden, nv
sorry, haven't paid enough attention to type of errors
179 =========== ---------- *AT* Ellenville, NY near Wurtsboro, NY
I find way to much variability in thermals to make the forecast average meaningful. In general, unless high pressure is directly overhead, I find there will be thermals enough to soar and they will be in the range of 300 to 600 fpm.
197 =========== ---------- *AT* Davenport, FL
The single most useful chart
199 =========== ---------- *AT* Cushing Field, Newark IL
Predictions seem to be low but still useful.
210 =========== ---------- *AT* Warner Springs, CA (CL35)
It could be me...
212 =========== Steve Arndt *AT* Ascutney, VT
Honestly, I use the BLIPs to predict general trends and to differentiate between great days and not so great days. I think I have a feel for all the categories offered and gain an insight from their use to determine what the day will be like. I also use more traditional forcasts like winds aloft and balloon sounding data to support the BLIPs.
217 =========== ---------- *AT* Harnett County Apt, Erwin, NC
Since I'm still learning BLIPMAPS, I can't answer all of these questions, but after hearing you speak at the SSA convention in Dayton, I at least have a rough idea of what's going on. Very rough. Sort of like the gel coat on my glider.
221 =========== Bill Whelan *AT* FDK MD
Generally seems to be in the ball park for flying over piedmont.
231 =========== ---------- *AT* Sterling, MA
They tend to somewhat undercall good days here and be rather more accurate on marginal ones
242 =========== ---------- *AT* New Castle, VA
Right on almost every time! But there were a few cases of underprediciton on good days.
246 =========== ---------- *AT* Alexandria I99
Very good and accurate
261 =========== ---------- *AT* Truckee/Minden
Predictions seemed a bit off last season,but on balance far more accurate than the Minden one, even with the 250ft down adjustment I'm told one needs to make.
269 =========== Paul Summerskill *AT* St. Catharines, Ontario
(W*) was found to be the only parameter that consistently related to hawk count numbers numbers recorded during migration.
275 =========== ryszard krolikowski *AT* Blairstown,NJ
last sezon was not as accurate as 2002
276 =========== Doug Levy *AT* Warner Springs, Ca
I don't use this often
278 =========== Reb Byrne *AT* Cherry Valley, AR
Seems to be a measure of the good lift, not the average lift
282 =========== Jim Hays *AT* Air Sailing, NV
the form does not offer a good enough choice: I find this parameter to be quite consistently accurate, especially in comparison to the generally inflated Reno Soaring Forecast.
302 =========== ---------- *AT* Hempstead, TX
Site is in an area that is difficult to predict: we would benefit by sponsoring a forcast for a specific location.
347 =========== ---------- *AT* (BSB) or S_Butte_ID
For X-C (non-competition), the general rule is to not leave lift regardless of amplitude.
360 =========== Ian Cant *AT* Tehachapi CA
Mainly fly over Southern Sierras, stronger conditions than flat ground
378 =========== ---------- *AT* Ellenville NY
Seems a bit low for hang gliders, at least the cores, especially in punchy thermals on high pressure days.
383 =========== ---------- *AT* Hood River, OR
Hood River is a difficult area because of marine air infiltration through the Columbia Gorge.
390 =========== Larry Roberts *AT* Crazy Creek, Middletown, CA
I do look at these and other pilots have given me info based on reports. I still need to learn more. YES, I understand to subtract the sink rate. (240 fpm minus 110 fpm = 130 fpm actual thermal updraft).
405 =========== ---------- *AT*
While the season was hard to predict, I often went to the airport with a briefing, plotted TI and the blipmap predictions and found that blipmap predicted conditions that were much higher than actual experience. In some cases this prediction made the difference between trying a flight or not and my experience was that of sitting on the ground wondering how the predictions had not materialized.
461 =========== Finbar Sheehy *AT* Warner Springs CA
I just use this to get an idea of "strong," "moderate" or "weak/marginal" lift. I haven't really kept track of its accuracy.
467 =========== John Medley *AT* Crystalaire Llano, CA
Flying out of Crystal with the current low- resolution Blipmaps maps and high local terrain variability. I have developed a sense of how to interpret them for local conditions
468 =========== ---------- *AT* Austin, TX
Seems like there is more error in the mountains where orographic effects can have great effect. Also, the velocity indicated gives me a good idea about the realtive strength of the day vs a consistent measuring stick, but the observed results never line up well with my vario readings (I don't mean that my sink rate needs to be subtracted, I mean that I get significantly different figures than the predictions (e.g. 1500fpm observed lift on a 500 fpm day), but there is still a solid correlation, which is what I most care about). This discrepancy is not linear. On a 200fpm day, I sink out. On a 400 fpm day, I can usually stay up for a while. It may be the the discrepancies I perceive here are a result of the craft I fly. Paragliders have many faults, but there is no better craft for thermalling. I've flown sailplanes but have less experience. The turning radius of a PG is much shorter, and this may account for the variation -- I'd be interested to know. FYI, intermediate paragliders typically sink at ~220fpm.
486 =========== Martin Hellman *AT* Hayward, CA
It's amazing how accurate it is. Even though it's supposed to be a gross air speed, I find it close to my maximum net ROC. My sink rate when thermalling is about 150-200 fpm, and I suspect that the 20 km grid underestimates the peak thermals by about that much.
488 =========== ---------- *AT* Invermere, BC
forcast low if one is able to only pick the strongest cores as in sailplane flying
497 =========== ---------- *AT* Boulder, CO
I cross check all weather sorces. The blip map is great to see which direction it will go.
515 =========== Ramy Yanetz *AT* Hollister
Significantly lower resolution than BL Top
517 =========== Mike Parker *AT* El Tiro Gliderport Tucson, AZ
Average error is very subjective. Usually I could do better than average by only turning in best thermals.
519 =========== *AT* Ridge Soaring, PA
Understood that glider sink rate is subtracted to judge climb rates. Still seems a bit optimistic...but we had a very rainy season last year with wet grounds.
524 =========== ---------- *AT* Middletown/CA
'Error' is a strong word IMO. I'd say that on average is close enough for me to say it's just plain accurate. This goes for all the parameters I use below.